“Orioles will significantly escalate payroll in the offseason “

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m obsessed with fixing it…. You mentioned Adley, Gunner, and Stowers 

 

the other 6 guys I mentioned need to be upgraded 

Not every guy on a team needs to have an above average OBP, or even an average one.  It depends what else they bring to the table.   Who would you rather have in LF in 2023:

1.  Jesse Winker.  He’s had a .374 OBP in his career, including .394 in 2021 and .344 in 2022.   He’s been worth 5.1 rWAR, 7.1 fWAR in his career (2070 PA) including 2.7/2.9 in 2021 and -0.3/0.4 in 2022

2.  Alex Verdugo.  He’s had a .341 OBP in his career, including .351 in 2021 and .328 in 2022.  He’s been worth 8.5 rWAR, 7.2 fWAR in his career (1927 PA), including 2.2/2.0 in 2021 and 1.2/1.2 in 2022.

3.  Austin Hays.  He’s had .309 OBP in his career, including .308 in 2021 and .306 in 2022.  He’s been worth 6.4 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR in his career (1383 PA), including 3.1/2.3 in 2021 and 2.3/1.5 in 2022.

Now, if OBP is the only thing you care about, it’s clearly Winker/Verdugo/Hays.   But if you value other things, Verdugo clearly tops Winker, and in my opinion, so does Hays.  Whether Hays is a better option than Verdugo is a closer question.  

[pdiddy]

deGrom to Rangers 5/185. Was hoping there was a tiny chance.

Edited December 3, 2022 by pdiddy

[emmett16]

3 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

Degrom to Rangers 5/185. Was hoping there was a tiny chance.

Dang.  Rangers continue to make you scratch your head.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Your just a negative Nelly.

I would counter than I am simply being realistic. They already had a 2023 payroll number in mind heading into free agency and I doubt the extra 1 time $30 million payout changed it in any significant way. 

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, pdiddy said:

deGrom to Rangers 5/185. Was hoping there was a tiny chance.

The happiest guys in the world right now are the remaining big name FA pitchers and their agents because their asking price just went up 10% to 15%. If that’s going to be the market then there’s no way the Orioles will make a serious run at Rodon, Bassett, Taillon, or Verlander. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not every guy on a team needs to have an above average OBP, or even an average one.  It depends what else they bring to the table.   Who would you rather have in LF in 2023:

1.  Jesse Winker.  He’s had a .374 OBP in his career, including .394 in 2021 and .344 in 2022.   He’s been worth 5.1 rWAR, 7.1 fWAR in his career (2070 PA) including 2.7/2.9 in 2021 and -0.3/0.4 in 2022

2.  Alex Verdugo.  He’s had a .341 OBP in his career, including .351 in 2021 and .328 in 2022.  He’s been worth 8.5 rWAR, 7.2 fWAR in his career (1927 PA), including 2.2/2.0 in 2021 and 1.2/1.2 in 2022.

3.  Austin Hays.  He’s had .309 OBP in his career, including .308 in 2021 and .306 in 2022.  He’s been worth 6.4 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR in his career (1383 PA), including 3.1/2.3 in 2021 and 2.3/1.5 in 2022.

Now, if OBP is the only thing you care about, it’s clearly Winker/Verdugo/Hays.   But if you value other things, Verdugo clearly tops Winker, and in my opinion, so does Hays.  Whether Hays is a better option than Verdugo is a closer question.  

B-E-N-I-N-T-E-N-D-I

of the 3 you mentioned probably #1. I’m with Billy Beane on the idea of having as many high OBP guys as possible. I can live with a couple.320 guys …..300ish sucks and they should be back in the minors.

[Roll Tide]

28 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I would counter than I am simply being realistic. They already had a 2023 payroll number in mind heading into free agency and I doubt the extra 1 time $30 million payout changed it in any significant way. 

It covers 1 superstar player or 2 lesser guys for one season. You don’t know the number set anymore than I do. Let the real stuff play out without sputtering the negative vibes. It’s time to be competitive and what he picks up needs to help with that. The crap that you mentioned doesn’t  obey the needle and you get nothing for being cheap.

[MarCakes21]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not every guy on a team needs to have an above average OBP, or even an average one.  It depends what else they bring to the table.   Who would you rather have in LF in 2023:

1.  Jesse Winker.  He’s had a .374 OBP in his career, including .394 in 2021 and .344 in 2022.   He’s been worth 5.1 rWAR, 7.1 fWAR in his career (2070 PA) including 2.7/2.9 in 2021 and -0.3/0.4 in 2022

2.  Alex Verdugo.  He’s had a .341 OBP in his career, including .351 in 2021 and .328 in 2022.  He’s been worth 8.5 rWAR, 7.2 fWAR in his career (1927 PA), including 2.2/2.0 in 2021 and 1.2/1.2 in 2022.

3.  Austin Hays.  He’s had .309 OBP in his career, including .308 in 2021 and .306 in 2022.  He’s been worth 6.4 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR in his career (1383 PA), including 3.1/2.3 in 2021 and 2.3/1.5 in 2022.

Now, if OBP is the only thing you care about, it’s clearly Winker/Verdugo/Hays.   But if you value other things, Verdugo clearly tops Winker, and in my opinion, so does Hays.  Whether Hays is a better option than Verdugo is a closer question.  

This is a great post, a guy with obvious OBP successes, and a great 2021. But would you even trade him straight up for Hays? Right now he’s being salary dumped. I’ve considered him a bounce back candidate and would consider him as an option, but doesn’t seem anyone likes the OBP enough for 8.5 mil.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

This is a great post, a guy with obvious OBP successes, and a great 2021. But would you even trade him straight up for Hays? Right now he’s being salary dumped. I’ve considered him a bounce back candidate and would consider him as an option, but doesn’t seem anyone likes the OBP enough for 8.5 mil.

Funny thing is, I didn’t even know Winker was being traded when I wrote this.  I only found out later when I checked MLBTR for the latest news.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

51 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It covers 1 superstar player or 2 lesser guys for one season. You don’t know the number set anymore than I do. Let the real stuff play out without sputtering the negative vibes. It’s time to be competitive and what he picks up needs to help with that. The crap that you mentioned doesn’t  obey the needle and you get nothing for being cheap.

They get a nice chunk of revenue sharing money every single year but haven't spent any meaningful money in half a decade, not even during last year's rare buyer's market, so I don't see any reason why this 1 time stipend would be much different. Counting it as money available for Elias to spend is extremely presumptuous.

And the "crap" I mentioned was intentionally unappealing to illustrate a point, that they could sign several meh players like the ones I listed and it would still count as "significantly" increasing the payroll. No false advertising whatsoever.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

B-E-N-I-N-T-E-N-D-I

of the 3 you mentioned probably #1. I’m with Billy Beane on the idea of having as many high OBP guys as possible. I can live with a couple.320 guys …..300ish sucks and they should be back in the minors.

That would be just about the whole 2022 team other than Adley, Gunnar, Santander and Mullins while he was here.  Is there a decent OBP OF who plays good defense who is nearing free agency?  I just don't think paying Benintendi $100 million is a smart move.  With where salaries are headed, that's a good guess.

 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

That would be just about the whole 2022 team other than Adley, Gunnar, Santander and Mullins while he was here.  Is there a decent OBP OF who plays good defense who is nearing free agency?  I just don't think paying Benintendi $100 million is a smart move.  With where salaries are headed, that's a good guess.

 

He’s rumored to get 2-3 years at something like $18 per. It will probably go up a little but he’s not getting a 5/100 contract.

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I would counter than I am simply being realistic. They already had a 2023 payroll number in mind heading into free agency and I doubt the extra 1 time $30 million payout changed it in any significant way. 

This is what’s in Mewleski’s piece

 

Quote

There is no reason to jump to the conclusion that that means the Orioles will have a quiet winter. That seems very, very unlikely. In fact, Elias himself has said the payroll will increase and additions will be sought both for the rotation and the batting order. We are all waiting to find out what that means, exactly, and how much the payroll will increase and in what ways.

 

When asked in that interview if he has ownership support to make the moves he wants to make, Elias indicated he does.

“We have a big plan in place for the next few years as we look to augment and grow this group, and kind of grow the business of Orioles baseball too," he said. "Get the fans back in here, renovate the stadium. So, we have a ton going on. I couldn’t be more optimistic about the near-, medium- and long-term future of baseball in Baltimore. We have a lot of work to do, but I know that right plan is in place to make it as good as we possibly can make it."

Doesn’t sound like a guy that’s being hindered or being given very little to work with.

 

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/will-o-s-rumor-mill-heat-up-with-arrival-of-winter-meetings

Edited December 3, 2022 by Roll Tide

[MarCakes21]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Funny thing is, I didn’t even know Winker was being traded when I wrote this.  I only found out later when I checked MLBTR for the latest news.  

That's pretty good.  Sounds like he may be traded again still.  So, would you trade Hays for Winker and his 8.5mil straight up?  I probably wouldn't but would have the analysis team look hard at why 2021/2022.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

That's pretty good.  Sounds like he may be traded again still.  So, would you trade Hays for Winker and his 8.5mil straight up?  I probably wouldn't but would have the analysis team look hard at why 2021/2022.

I would not, but in fairness to Winker, it looks like he played hurt in 2022, according to the MLBTR article about him:

“It was a similar tale for Winker in 2022, as injuries weighed down his production in what will now be his lone season as a Mariner. Acquired alongside Eugenio Suarez in a trade that sent pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley and righty Justin Dunn to Cincinnati, Winker (perhaps literally) limped through the weakest offensive season of his career before undergoing left knee surgery and a second procedure to address a bulging disc in his neck back in October.”

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/brewers-trade-kolten-wong-mariners-jesse-winker-abraham-toro.html