Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[Bemorewins]

49 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Right, because this signing will definitely be the only one. Quit whining and wait it out. Jesus. 

I agree that patience would serve us all well to see how things go, given the talent that is still out there.

But to say that other fans are “whining” after what this org has put us through over the last 5 years may be a bit harsh. I don’t begrudge any fan for being skeptical given where we were and where we have the potential to be if we make the necessary moves.

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs Depth Charts don't reflect the signing yet, and forecast GS as:

Kremer 29, Bradish 28, Wells 26, Grayson 23, Voth 21, Zimmermann 16, Hall 8, Baumann 5, Hall 5, Watkins 2

Gibson basically absorbs the Zimmermann-Baumann-Watkins 23, and 26 starts (140 innings) feels high for Wells.    Tyler Wells made 23 starts averaging 4.5 innings last year before wearing out.

Nobody gets an actual 162 starts from the personnel forecast for 162.

[Camden Yards]

 

[Going Underground]

Has Gibson contract come out yet? Usually comes out soon after the announcement. 

[Camden Yards]

13 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Has Gibson contract come out yet? Usually comes out soon after the announcement. 

Saw some twitter stuff about 1yr 5 million but nothing from any major outlet yet. 

[McLovin]

Lots of good points on why this is not a terrible move. I’d be OK if he lived up to his 3-year average. 
 

But sadly he’s 35, and career aging trends are not on his side. He also finished the season in horrendous form - about a 10 ERA, with an OPS against over 1.000 in Sep/Oct. Hopefully they didn’t pay him much. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, deward said:

I don't expect everyone to be Verlander, but I expect a team with playoff aspirations to aim for better than that, not settle for it so early in the off-season.

"Settling" is a very good way to describe this particular move at this particular time. Nothing about it implies that 2023 is remotely a priority. It's completely and utterly lateral, and it severely limits the extent to which the rotation can be improved overall heading into 2023. I really cannot see us adding 3 SPs this offseason, so even the rather modest idea of adding two solid but unspectacular mid-rotation starters is already out the window. That's pretty wild to me.

Like, I didn't think we were going to sign Verlander then trade for Burnes or anything crazy like that, but I did think signing a mid-rotation SP like Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, or Noah Syndergaard and then trading for another mid-rotation SP like Pablo Lopez or Chris Flexen was pretty realistic, but unless we are going to add 3 SPs, even that modest bit of improvement to the rotation was apparently too much to ask for.

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

But to say that other fans are “whining” after what this org has put us through over the last 5 years may be a bit harsh. I don’t begrudge any fan for being skeptical given where we were and where we have the potential to be if we make the necessary moves.

I appreciate you going out on a limb to play devil's advocate for me and the rest of the "BOO, HISS" crowd. The knee-jerk "just wait and see what happens, crybaby" retort to valid complaints/concerns about this move miss the point, or at least the one I am trying to make anyway.

The main issue I take with the move is that it reveals that significantly improving our biggest area of concern for next year, the starting rotation, is not a particularly high priority. Kremer and Bradish both deserve spots after their 2022 seasons but have some red flags that indicate some regression may be in store next year, and GrayRod is going to be pitching at the MLB level for the very first time so some growing pains are quite possible, if not probable. They should all still start the season in the rotation though, and almost certainly will if healthy, so that only leaves 2 spots to potentially fill with reliable, quality guys to anchor and upgrade the staff, and now one of those 2 spots is filled with a very uninspiring back of the rotation Lyles-type instead of someone who can reasonably counted on to produce at a meaningfully higher level than 2022 Lyles next year.

Maybe Elias surprises me and adds 3 starters this offseason, including 2 that can actually be considered upgrades over both Lyles and our in-house options in addition to the newly-signed Gibson, and Kremer and Bradish have to compete for a single rotation spot in spring training, but that seems extremely unlikely to me. 

36 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Has Gibson contract come out yet? Usually comes out soon after the announcement. 

I don't believe so, which is pretty weird. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Actually, you might not be far off.  Gibson has, historically, been a first half pitcher, 3.95 vs. 5.11 ERA in the 2nd half.   He might just be a bridge to John Means.    It’s doubtful another team will fall for it again but the Phillies did in 2021 so you never know.

That's not a bad point, no one quite knows what to expect from Means.

To your point, I do believe the Phillies were a bit desperate this year, but I also really can't blame them seeing as how their season turned out.  So maybe this is someone we can flip for a lower level prospect at the deadline.  I just hope that this really isn't the end of our additions to the rotation, that would be disappointing.  

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

"Settling" is a very good way to describe this particular move at this particular time. Nothing about it implies that 2023 is remotely a priority. It's completely and utterly lateral, and it severely limits the extent to which the rotation can be improved overall heading into 2023. I really cannot see us adding 3 SPs this offseason, so even the rather modest idea of adding two solid but unspectacular mid-rotation starters is already out the window. That's pretty wild to me.

Like, I didn't think we were going to sign Verlander then trade for Burnes or anything crazy like that, but I did think signing a mid-rotation SP like Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, or Noah Syndergaard and then trading for another mid-rotation SP like Pablo Lopez or Chris Flexen was pretty realistic, but unless we are going to add 3 SPs, even that modest bit of improvement to the rotation was apparently too much to ask for.

I appreciate you going out on a limb to play devil's advocate for me and the rest of the "BOO, HISS" crowd. The knee-jerk "just wait and see what happens, crybaby" retort to valid complaints/concerns about this move miss the point, or at least the one I am trying to make anyway.

The main issue I take with the move is that it reveals that significantly improving our biggest area of concern for next year, the starting rotation, is not a particularly high priority. Kremer and Bradish both deserve spots after their 2022 seasons but have some red flags that indicate some regression may be in store next year, and GrayRod is going to be pitching at the MLB level for the very first time so some growing pains are quite possible, if not probable. They should all still start the season in the rotation though, and almost certainly will if healthy, so that only leaves 2 spots to potentially fill with reliable, quality guys to anchor and upgrade the staff, and now one of those 2 spots is filled with a very uninspiring back of the rotation Lyles-type instead of someone who can reasonably counted on to produce at a meaningfully higher level than 2022 Lyles next year.

Maybe Elias surprises me and adds 3 starters this offseason, including 2 that can actually be considered upgrades over both Lyles and our in-house options in addition to the newly-signed Gibson, and Kremer and Bradish have to compete for a single rotation spot in spring training, but that seems extremely unlikely to me. 

I don't believe so, which is pretty weird. 

I'm sensing you don't like this signing. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

The one thing I am confident in is that Holt knows all about Gibson.  The pitches he throws, their shape, how consistent they are, what has worked for him and what has not.  And he knows what he can do to improve him.

Look at the pitchers that improved this past year under Holt: Kremer, Bradish, Lyles, Voth, Wells, Bautista, Perez, Tate, Akin, Baker...

I can't agree that Gibson is a back of the rotation starter.   Not after he spends ST with Holt.

 

Pardon my saying so, but your hero worship of Holt is way over the top.  The 2020 Orioles had an ERA+ of 105.   In Holt’s first year, it dropped to 77.   This year he got it up to 102.   That’s great improvement over 2021, but why was it so bad in 2021 in the first place?   Kremer was worse than in 2020 that year.  Ditto Akin.  Ditto Fry.  Ditto Scott.   Ditto Lakins.  Ditto Eshelman.  Ditto Armstrong.  And lots of other guys on the Orioles for the first time crapped the bed.

Don’t get me wrong - I like Holt.  But he’s not some magician who’s going to improve every pitcher who joins the Orioles.  Will Gibson be slightly better in 2023 than in 2022?  I hope so, because 2022 was a below average year for him.

Gibson is a back of the rotation starter.  Nothing wrong with that, so long as he’s not being asked to be a front of rotation starter.  

 

[Moose Milligan]

Normally I'd be on the "Boo hiss" train as @DrinkinWithFermicalls it, but I will say what Elias and his crew have been able to do with some scrap heap types has been fairly impressive.  If lumping Gibson in with the scrap heap types is being a bit harsh, so be it.  He's certainly not a top flight FA, nor is he in the 2nd tier.  IMO, this is a guy who would have probably been available when ST started.

But I don't think anyone thought we'd get the season out of Lyles that we did last year.  Same with Voth, his turnaround coming here was completely unexpected.  Rule 5 HoFer Wells has been a steal.  Watkins had his moments last year.  Jorge Lopez for half a season.  Baker and Perez in the pen.  Kremer, Akin, Tate (while not scrap heap types) were impressive.  

I ****cannot believe I am actually considering this franchise a place where pitchers can be rejuvenated and find success**** but here we are. 

So while Gibson isn't a sexy pickup on the surface...again, I can't believe I'm trusting of anything the Orioles do, but again, here we are...I'm betting that Elias and Sig see something that can be improved upon.  Like I said, Gibson seems to be a guy who'd be available at ST...so maybe the fact that they jumped on him relatively early in free agency means that they felt strongly about what they could help him with.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm sensing you don't like this signing. 

Guilty as charged lol.

If I thought there was a realistic chance of us also adding 2 more starters that are better than the Lyles's and Gibson's of the world, I would actually be perfectly fine with it though.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Pardon my saying so, but your hero worship of Holt is way over the top.  The 2020 Orioles had an ERA+ of 105.   In Holt’s first year, it dropped to 77.   This year he got it up to 102.   That’s great improvement over 2021, but why was it so bad in 2021 in the first place?   Kremer was worse than in 2020 that year.  Ditto Akin.  Ditto Fry.  Ditto Scott.   Ditto Lakins.  Ditto Eshelman.  Ditto Armstrong.  And lots of other guys on the Orioles for the first time crapped the bed.

Don’t get me wrong - I like Holt.  But he’s not some magician who’s going to improve every pitcher who joins the Orioles.  Will Gibson be slightly better in 2023 than in 2022?  I hope so, because 2022 was a below average year for him.

Gibson is a back of the rotation starter.  Nothing wrong with that, so long as he’s not being asked to be a front of rotation starter.  

 

Pardon my saying so Froberto Duran, however I think Holt shepherding a group like he had in 2022 to a 102+ is wizard-esque.  

A 102+ would be pretty crappy if you had the Mets rotation.  I think if, in March of 2022, someone told us that we'd have a 102+ for the season given the type of talent we were headed into the season with, we'd all have been in disbelief.  

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Normally I'd be on the "Boo hiss" train as @DrinkinWithFermicalls it, but I will say what Elias and his crew have been able to do with some scrap heap types has been fairly impressive.  If lumping Gibson in with the scrap heap types is being a bit harsh, so be it.  He's certainly not a top flight FA, nor is he in the 2nd tier.  IMO, this is a guy who would have probably been available when ST started.

But I don't think anyone thought we'd get the season out of Lyles that we did last year.  Same with Voth, his turnaround coming here was completely unexpected.  Rule 5 HoFer Wells has been a steal.  Watkins had his moments last year.  Jorge Lopez for half a season.  Baker and Perez in the pen.  Kremer, Akin, Tate (while not scrap heap types) were impressive.  

I ****cannot believe I am actually considering this franchise a place where pitchers can be rejuvenated and find success**** but here we are. 

So while Gibson isn't a sexy pickup on the surface...again, I can't believe I'm trusting of anything the Orioles do, but again, here we are...I'm betting that Elias and Sig see something that can be improved upon.  Like I said, Gibson seems to be a guy who'd be available at ST...so maybe the fact that they jumped on him relatively early in free agency means that they felt strongly about what they could help him with.

I hope you and Wildcard will be happy together.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I hope you and Wildcard will be happy together.

I'm sure we will be.  Open invite to come over and drink some Kool-Aid while we worship at our shrine to Chris Holt.  

THE FIRST RULE ABOUT HOLT CLUB IS THAT YOU DO NOT TALK ABOUT HOLT CLUB