Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[wildcard]

By signing Gibson the O's are betting of their defense to make him better.   So it would seem they can't weaken the defense to get more offense.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Lyles has a career year last year. It is possible he repeats but overall he is not in the same league as Gibson. He definitely isn't better. Gibson did not have our defense and Adley last year.

I have been referring to Lyles' 2022 for us this entire time. I don't care what he did 5 years ago when he was not an Oriole yet or what he does next year when he isn't an Oriole anymore.

We have replaced Jordan Lyles with a functionally identical pitcher.

[Spy Fox]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

By signing Gibson the O's are betting of their defense to make him better.   So it would seem they can't weaken the defense to get more offense.

I don't think signing Gibson will have any impact on how the team values offense v defense. They aren't changing their strategy just to make sure Kyle Gibson is good. 

The one way it might impact broader strategy is what others have mentioned that it makes trading one of our young SP a bit more doable if needed.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

By signing Gibson the O's are betting of their defense to make him better.   So it would seem they can't weaken the defense to get more offense.

They are either replacing their gold glove 3B or Fielding Bible SS with Gunnar Henderson.   I assume you are, at the very least, saying Gunnar won't play SS.

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I have been referring to Lyles' 2022 for us this entire time. I don't care what he did 5 years ago when he was not an Oriole yet or what he does next year when he isn't an Oriole anymore.

We have replaced Jordan Lyles with a functionally identical pitcher.

Lyles' body of work was significantly worse before coming to the O's. Did he magically improve or did the combination of Adley, the wall, our defense, and Holt help him improve? All of those things could help Gibson and I would not be surprised to see him outperform Lyles significantly.

 

 

[Just Regular]

OAA figured the Orioles infield defense was about 13 runs better than Philadelphia's last year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielding_Team&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=if&roles=&viz=hide

Gibson throws say about 12% of team innings in a good year for him, so figure a couple runs of difference.    That'd be about 0.10 in ERA over 180 innings, just from the Infielders.

OAA thought Alec Bohm was a bottom of the barrel 3B.    Getting to watch him all of October kind of gave some visuals when a ~Coby Mayo sized person sticks there.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Just Regular

[DrinkinWithFermi]

45 minutes ago, wildcard said:

By signing Gibson the O's are betting of their defense to make him better.   So it would seem they can't weaken the defense to get more offense.

Gibson has posted ERAs north of 5.00 in 5 different seasons for 3 different teams. The notion that it's all the Phillies' poor defense's fault is simply untrue.

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Lyles' body of work was significantly worse before coming to the O's. Did he magically improve or did the combination of Adley, the wall, our defense, and Holt help him improve? All of those things could help Gibson and I would not be surprised to see him outperform Lyles significantly.

 

 

Gibson was significantly worse than Lyles 2022 in 2 of the last 3 seasons and he is heading into his age 35 season, so him simply performing as well as Lyles did for us last year would be a huge win. I don't think that is a particularly ureasonable expectation based on the reasons you cite, but expecting him to be some kind of meaningful improvement is extremely unrealistic, and the possibility that he ends up being a step down is also pretty high based on his age and recent performance.

[Number5]

Seems like you really don't like Gibson, DWF.  

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Gibson has posted ERAs north of 5.00 in 5 different seasons for 3 different teams. The notion that it's all the Phillies' poor defense's fault is simply untrue.

Gibson was significantly worse than Lyles 2022 in 2 of the last 3 seasons and he is heading into his age 35 season, so him simply performing as well as Lyles did for us last year would be a huge win. I don't think that is a particularly ureasonable expectation based on the reasons you cite, but expecting him to be some kind of meaningful improvement is extremely unrealistic, and the possibility that he ends up being a step down is also pretty high based on his age and recent performance.

Here’s something seems pretty easy to compare.  Both pitched for the Rangers in 2020 and 2021 and there’s no doubt that Gibson was the better pitcher while they both pitched there.

Gibson even had a better FIP last year.  Also, Fangraphs had Gibson at 1.8 to 1.4 for Lyles in fwar.  How are you coming up with Lyles being better 2 of the last 3 years?   Which years?

Edited December 4, 2022 by RZNJ

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Gibson has posted ERAs north of 5.00 in 5 different seasons for 3 different teams. The notion that it's all the Phillies' poor defense's fault is simply untrue.

Gibson was significantly worse than Lyles 2022 in 2 of the last 3 seasons and he is heading into his age 35 season, so him simply performing as well as Lyles did for us last year would be a huge win. I don't think that is a particularly ureasonable expectation based on the reasons you cite, but expecting him to be some kind of meaningful improvement is extremely unrealistic, and the possibility that he ends up being a step down is also pretty high based on his age and recent performance.

I don't consider a 4.4 ERA *significantly* worse than 5.0, and even so I don't consider one year of ERA to be a great valuation metric. Gibson's 2021 blew away any year that Lyles has put up, ever. You are holding 2020 against him but that was a small sample. 2018-19 were solid and better than Lyles. And Lyles year last year cannot be evaluated independent of ballpark, defense etc, especially when the Orioles entire staff outperformed. I don't think Gibson is great but based on his body of work I'd say overall he has a better track record. For what it's worth Fangraphs projects Lyles with 4.89/0.8, Gibson with 4.21/1.4. 

[owknows]

11 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Seems like you really don't like Gibson, DWF.  

Gibson...We hates it, we hates it, we hates it forever!”

--DrinkinWithGollum

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Lyles' body of work was significantly worse before coming to the O's. Did he magically improve or did the combination of Adley, the wall, our defense, and Holt help him improve? All of those things could help Gibson and I would not be surprised to see him outperform Lyles significantly.

Lyles has had better years than 2022 before.  Like I said before, I’d say it’s 60/40 that Gibson has a better year than Lyles, but it’s not a slam dunk.  

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lyles has had better years than 2022 before.  Like I said before, I’d say it’s 60/40 that Gibson has a better year than Lyles, but it’s not a slam dunk.  

I would agree with that take. Would you call them "functionally equivalent"? I think Gibson objectively has the better track record, albeit not by enough to be a lock to outperform Lyles.

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

22 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Seems like you really don't like Gibson, DWF.  

Whatever gave you that crazy idea 

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here’s something seems pretty easy to compare.  Both pitched for the Rangers in 2020 and 2021 and there’s no doubt that Gibson was the better pitcher while they both pitched there.

Gibson even had a better FIP last year.  Also, Fangraphs had Gibson at 1.8 to 1.4 for Lyles in fwar.  How are you coming up with Lyles being better 2 of the last 3 years?   Which years?

Again, when I am referring to Lyles, I am referring to Lyles as an Orioles because that is what actually matters for the purpose of evaluating this move, and Gibson's 2020 for Texas and 2022 for Philly were both worse than Lyles was for us last year.

And writing his 2020 off as a SSS fluke does not work because he has had a number of other seasons in that vein (or even worse) in his career.

14 minutes ago, owknows said:

Gibson...We hates it, we hates it, we hates it forever!”

--DrinkinWithGollum

Hey, at least you didn't compare me to something from Amazon's abysmal Rings Of Power series lol.

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't consider a 4.4 ERA *significantly* worse than 5.0, and even so I don't consider one year of ERA to be a great valuation metric. Gibson's 2021 blew away any year that Lyles has put up, ever. You are holding 2020 against him but that was a small sample. 2018-19 were solid and better than Lyles. And Lyles year last year cannot be evaluated independent of ballpark, defense etc, especially when the Orioles entire staff outperformed. I don't think Gibson is great but based on his body of work I'd say overall he has a better track record. For what it's worth Fangraphs projects Lyles with 4.89/0.8, Gibson with 4.21/1.4. 

Gibson has posted 5.00+ ERAs in 5 seasons for 3 teams, and a 4.50+ ERA for his entire 10 year career. At age 35, I would not expect some incredible career renaissance, but like I said, a season roughly on par with Lyles' 2022 is entirely within the realm of plausible outcomes. In fact, that is pretty much what I expect.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Whatever gave you that crazy idea 

Again, when I am referring to Lyles, I am referring to Lyles as an Orioles because that is what actually matters for the purpose of evaluating this move, and Gibson's 2020 for Texas and 2022 for Philly were both worse than Lyles was for us last year.

And writing his 2020 off as a SSS fluke does not work because he has had a number of other seasons in that vein (or even worse) in his career.

Hey, at least you didn't compare me to something from Amazon's abysmal Rings Of Power series lol.

Gibson has posted 5.00+ ERAs in 5 seasons for 3 teams, and a 4.50+ ERA for his entire 10 year career. At age 35, I would not expect some incredible career renaissance, but like I said, a season roughly on par with Lyles' 2022 is entirely within the realm of plausible outcomes. In fact, that is pretty much what I expect.

There you go.  We are in agreement on expectations for this year.