“Liftoff - Perhaps a Bit Misunderstood “

[Bemorewins]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a few:

1) ownership is cheap (they are fine with doing the foundational stuff though and I would argue that’s more important)

2) Elias came from an organization, the best one in the sport, that doesn’t spend on huge, FA contracts. They sign there own and spend on 1-3 year FA deals, for the most part.

3) those large contracts tend to blow up in your face.

4) Free agency is a terrible way to build a team.

Now don’t get me wrong.,I’m not saying they shouldn’t spend. What I’m saying is that they are not going to sign guys to these super big deals unless it’s to keep one of their own.

The payroll will rise but it won’t get into the 9 figure area until you see more and more guys hitting arbitration, which is exactly what happened in the mid 2010s.

 

I appreciate you taking the time to explicate!

1) That may be true but that is a hard pill to swallow. I thought things were supposed to be different w/o the old man running things? If true, this will make it much harder for us to win b/c other teams will have more options to explore thus lowering their margin for error in terms of the things they need to go right.

2) I don't see Elias being content with this long term especially when he will have other/better options where he is not hamstrung.

3) The large contracts are the cost of doing business in the sport. If they planning on retaining Henderson and Rutschman they will need to pay them larger contracts. There is a cost to pay organizationally if you don't have faces of your franchise. Most people like a good story, without people/players to follow associated with the team it makes it harder for them to create/sustain that narrative about the team in their own minds. Otherwise stated, most people don't cheer for laundry but for the people wearing that laundry/uniform. That's why the Rays and before them A's have/had no fans.

4) "Building" through F/A is not necessary. The foundational cornerstones are already in place. We need F/A to supplement the talent that we already have - i.e. a pitcher to slot at the top of the rotation in big games so that we don't have to front load that pressure on Rodriguez year 1. A more consistent, higher OBP bat to hit in front of our behind the Rutschman/Henderson combo would also be very nice if we want a better offense next year.

Again, I appreciate you taking time the to explain these points. But if one is true that really stands out as unacceptable to me because that approach appears to be the most hindering to championship success. At some point, you have to spend money to make money and draw more fan interest. If they are planning on taking the cheap route and money is all that matters, why not just sell the team? - We as fans deserve better than this!  

[Bemorewins]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok…and? My point is about the huge mega contracts. They will sign guys to 1-3 year deals. I’m not sure I see a 4 year deal happening unless the AAV is less.

 

They could have signed Verlander to a 2 year deal. But they opted out on participating in the courting process according to a report I saw from a link posted by someone here.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I appreciate you taking the time to explicate!

2) I don't see Elias being content with this long term especially when he will have other/better options where he is not hamstrung.

 

There is a very finite number of these jobs.  Very few openings appear.

Right now Elias has shown he can use a strategy which is now nonviable to build a top farm system.

I think he's going to have to show more before he starts getting better offers from other teams.

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are they tho?

Year four they had a ~.500 team.  Was the plan to take six years to get to that point?

They are ahead of where I thought they’d be at this time last year.  They are not ahead of where I thought they’d be when Elias took over.   I think the lack of a minor league season in 2020 slowed the rebuild but they’ve caught back up now. I’m pretty happy with where they are; now the question is where do they go from here?  The answer to that lies more in how good their own young players turn out to be than it does on free agents, etc.  But, I can’t say those other factors aren’t important.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I appreciate you taking the time to explicate!

1) That may be true but that is a hard pill to swallow. I thought things were supposed to be different w/o the old man running things? If true, this will make it much harder for us to win b/c other teams will have more options to explore thus lowering their margin for error in terms of the things they need to go right.

2) I don't see Elias being content with this long term especially when he will have other/better options where he is not hamstrung.

3) The large contracts are the cost of doing business in the sport. If they planning on retaining Henderson and Rutschman they will need to pay them larger contracts. There is a cost to pay organizationally if you don't have faces of your franchise. Most people like a good story, without people/players to follow associated with the team it makes it harder for them to create/sustain that narrative about the team in their own minds. Otherwise stated, most people don't cheer for laundry but for the people wearing that laundry/uniform. That's why the Rays and before them A's have/had no fans.

4) "Building" through F/A is not necessary. The foundational cornerstones are already in place. We need F/A to supplement the talent that we already have - i.e. a pitcher to slot at the top of the rotation in big games so that we don't have to front load that pressure on Rodriguez year 1. A more consistent, higher OBP bat to hit in front of our behind the Rutschman/Henderson combo would also be very nice if we want a better offense next year.

Again, I appreciate you taking time the to explain these points. But if one is true that really stands out as unacceptable to me because that approach appears to be the most hindering to championship success. At some point, you have to spend money to make money and draw more fan interest. If they are planning on taking the cheap route and money is all that matters, why not just sell the team? - We as fans deserve better than this!  

Well, I disagree with some of this:

1) The old man did spend. He just spent it poorly.

2) Why wouldn’t Elias be content with this? He came to a smaller market than Houston, knows how they are run and knows they are run well.  Why would he not want to emulate them? I think that’s his exact plan and he is good with it.

3). As I said, the long term deals are for free agents. Keeping your own is a different thing. Houston keeps their own when they want to.

4) Yea, you supplement your roster with FAs/trades. You don’t need to spend stupid money to do that though.

We deserve the best team they can put together while keeping with the long term plan and not scrapping it already. I don’t care if that’s accomplished with a 70M payroll or 170M but it needs to be done.

[Bemorewins]

42 minutes ago, dzorange said:

The Orioles are 1-2 years ahead of schedule. Spending big (as far as the Orioles go) was not part of the plan at this point. It's still not really part of the plan, though we might get lucky and put more money into Free Agency than originally thought. If the goal is to win a World Series, it wasn't going to happen through Free Agency while the Orioles are still somewhat rebuilding. Baltimore needs to be smart with their money. This team should begin to peak in 2024 or 2025. If they haven't shelled out a decent amount of money by that point, then it's understandable to be upset. But at this point, it's still about building a roster to truly contend in a couple of years.

2023 should be an incredibly fun season. I think we should enjoy it. Much like this past season but with expectations. The team will be competing for a playoff spot. At least that's the expectation around the board. Putting together World Series caliber team is still a bit a ways, and that's part of the plan to do what's best for the organization. To maximize wins at its peak and in the long term.

If the Orioles end up exceeding expectations again in 2023, and this looks like a team that can make a run in the playoffs, there will be opportunities midseason to bolster the team as well. I think it's most likely that Elias would make his biggest moves through trades. Though my gut feeling is that they are putting some competitive offers out there to starting pitchers.

Ok, I disagree with the statement that the Orioles are "still Somewhat rebuilding". No rebuild should take over 5 years, especially when they opted out of even trying to compete for 4 of them. Your whole first paragraph seems to express that fans should be patient AND give the org the benefit of the doubt. It's almost that the last 5 years (well last 30+) occurred in a vacuum.

I admittedly have a hard time with this approach when the O's have disappointed me so many times before with their apparent incompetence and unwillingness to run the franchise in a way that is optimal.

I also struggle with giving them an out by lowering the bar to "well if we can just compete for a playoff spot". Didn't we just do that last year? Where is the growth and desire to achieve excellence? Isn't that what athletics/pro sports... heck life is about?

It almost feels like if I were to accept what you are proposing, that I am currently more interested in the team's success than the people getting paid handsomely to be apex competitors. If true this grieves me as it is an indication that I am wasting my time and energy. 

I'm willing to give it all offseason. But if the O's try to sell me/us fans with this reasoning, I'm going to have to make reevaluations about how I plan on spending money this Spring, Summer, and Fall. They will have forced me to take the approach "wake me up when you want to win as much I want you to".

Please don't let this be so!

[Just Regular]

It would be Elias walk year if the original contract was 5 years.

But even if he's Xander Bogaerts, wouldn't David Stearns and James Click be Trea Turner and Carlos Correa?

I'll agree Yankees Cashman type news would be welcome, but as quietly as this ship runs who knows what's what.    If Elias is tasked with procuring FA years from Gunnar or Adley (or anyone else important) anytime in the next 12 days - 12 months, you'd imagine Angelos would want him to be able to truthfully assure the other party he's good to go for the longer term.

[Frobby]

I think the O’s have a solid long term plan to be a playoff contender for a long time.  They’re on the cusp of it right now.   We saw what happened when Duquette pushed all his chips to the middle of the table and didn’t win the pot.   I have no desire to see that approach again.  

Like I’ve said before, I do expect them to spend a lot more money than they have been.  I don’t expect the increase to come all at once.   
 

[Bemorewins]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Every team had to deal with Covid!

I so very much hate that excuse.

It's nonsense.

With the number of teams that make the playoffs I don't think it would at all be out of question to expect the 2023 team to be a playoff contender back in 2019.

I also don't think the general consensus is that the Orioles are "expected" to make the playoffs. 

Which 2022 playoff team do you see the Orioles, as currently constructed, being better than?

This is a very scary but legitimate question. Who are we leap leapfrogging to make the playoffs next year?

Just because some are advocating acceptance of a cautious/cheap approach doesn't mean that the other teams will comply and do the same. They are all trying to get better while we appear content to remain the same or at least rely almost exclusively on organic growth. That's a dangerous proposition that may head towards ultimate stagnancy.

For those who are accepting of the O's going cheap (if indeed that's what they intend to do this offseason) please don't make post asking where are the fans "because the team is 3 games out" and it's August. Fans are much more sophisticated (in some ways) than they used to be.

One of the reasons that I wanted the O's to make a push in F/A (especially during the Winter meetings) is to build on the momentum from this past season and draw more fan interest by Christmas. That way more people would be incentivized to buy season tix as holiday gifts.

I know Elias wasn't here during the last 30+ years (and it may not even be his decision), but we were! If things are going to change and they want to rebuild fan trust/confidence, they have to continue to do things differently. Not just say, Hey look! We have a good farm system, good young talent, and an international program. What more do you want us to do?" Because my answer will be "I want you to go ALL IN to push for a World Series. Not make excuses."

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is a very finite number of these jobs.  Very few openings appear.

Right now Elias has shown he can use a strategy which is now nonviable to build a top farm system.

I think he's going to have to show more before he starts getting better offers from other teams.

I agree with everything you stated. But once he does (especially if they have found something repeatable with player development) he will be gone.

[Frobby]

“I rattled that word off in Texas,” he said. “I feel very organically that is what I meant. I mean I think that this team is going to continue to get better from this point forward. We’re sitting here with this young nucleus that’s extremely talented. It’s going to be here for a long while. We’re sitting on the No. 1 farm system. We’ve got a roster and a payroll that we can custom build over the next few years because right now we don’t have any long-term contracts to build around. (It was) not a specific proclamation for we’re going to do it all at once at the Winter Meetings, but that the next several years of baseball in Baltimore is going to be excellent. And I think that the team is going to continually improve and we’re going to build the business of Baltimore baseball back up over the next several years.

“We’re on the upswing. That’s what I mean when I say that. It’s a very exciting time for us. It’s been a long time coming and a lot of work getting to this point, but to be on the upward arc of where we’re at, regardless of what we do or don’t do this winter, I think is very encouraging for all of us in this organization and for the fans and for the players.”

That’s exactly what I understood him to mean when he said it.   And I believe it.  

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I disagree with some of this:

1) The old man did spend. He just spent it poorly.

2) Why wouldn’t Elias be content with this? He came to a smaller market than Houston, knows how they are run and knows they are run well.  Why would he not want to emulate them? I think that’s his exact plan and he is good with it.

3). As I said, the long term deals are for free agents. Keeping your own is a different thing. Houston keeps their own when they want to.

4) Yea, you supplement your roster with FAs/trades. You don’t need to spend stupid money to do that though.

We deserve the best team they can put together while keeping with the long term plan and not scrapping it already. I don’t care if that’s accomplished with a 70M payroll or 170M but it needs to be done.

1) Absolutely agree on number 1! However, we are now doing things that he would have never done/allowed (like the complete teardown/multi-year rebuild), the development of a a real international program, and now possibly going cheap.

2) I hope Houston is the model. That would be my dream! It's not going to be easy to get there, but if their payroll will be our eventual payroll, I'm cool with that. I just don't want an A's/Rays model with continuous roster turnover and more importantly no fans.

3) If we are going to be committed to keeping Henderson and Rutschman long term at the expense of some free agents, I'm A okay with. My only question to that would be, if that's true shouldn't they be working on those guys extensions now (like Seattle did with JRod)? 

4) I don't think Verlander was stupid/dumb money because of the short term nature of the contract. Yes 6 years for deGrom is not wise. But 2 years of Verlander or 3/4 years for Bassitt or trading for an ace (no Pablo Lopez is not an ace IMO) and then signing that younger player to an extension; I think that would be a good approach if you plan on competing for the top of the AL with Hou.

I don't see 70 million getting it done. But I'm with you whatever it takes, to get there should be the approach.

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s incredibly obvious how this team is going to be built and how they will handle the payroll.  
 

Anyone thinking they are going to be handing out these huge, long term FA deals are just delusional.  It’s not happening for many reasons.

I agree with this. I think it is foolish to think that ownership is going to spend big, especially with the family turmoil. Frankly, the money being handed out right now to the top tier is crazy. I think with all the young talent we almost need one more year to sort out who we should keep. Then try to lock up Gunnar and Adley. Then add a higher end FA or three. I don't want to be patient either.....but I think that is the best course of action. 

[deward]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

“I rattled that word off in Texas,” he said. “I feel very organically that is what I meant. I mean I think that this team is going to continue to get better from this point forward. We’re sitting here with this young nucleus that’s extremely talented. It’s going to be here for a long while. We’re sitting on the No. 1 farm system. We’ve got a roster and a payroll that we can custom build over the next few years because right now we don’t have any long-term contracts to build around. (It was) not a specific proclamation for we’re going to do it all at once at the Winter Meetings, but that the next several years of baseball in Baltimore is going to be excellent. And I think that the team is going to continually improve and we’re going to build the business of Baltimore baseball back up over the next several years.

“We’re on the upswing. That’s what I mean when I say that. It’s a very exciting time for us. It’s been a long time coming and a lot of work getting to this point, but to be on the upward arc of where we’re at, regardless of what we do or don’t do this winter, I think is very encouraging for all of us in this organization and for the fans and for the players.”

That’s exactly what I understood him to mean when he said it.   And I believe it.  

For me, liftoff is a dramatic word that creates an expectation of dramatic action, especially combined with his other comments at other times about increasing the payroll. I was never confident that we were going to get dramatic action, given the ownership situation, but his statements implied that, which is why he's clearly having to walk it back now. 

For all that he's done, Elias still needs to prove that he can land this plane. The 2022 team was a happy accident, that he didn't do a thing to support while it was happening. We still don't know what it looks like when he's actually trying to build a good big league team. People talk about the Astros model, but that involved a number of pretty aggressive trades, some of them during the first summer that they started winning again. There's a lot of off-season left, so we'll see. It's hard to be patient with this franchise these days.

[deward]

16 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

I agree with this. I think it is foolish to think that ownership is going to spend big, especially with the family turmoil. Frankly, the money being handed out right now to the top tier is crazy. I think with all the young talent we almost need one more year to sort out who we should keep. Then try to lock up Gunnar and Adley. Then add a higher end FA or three. I don't want to be patient either.....but I think that is the best course of action. 

I don't think the money is as crazy as people like to think. There's a lot of money in this sport.