“Liftoff - Perhaps a Bit Misunderstood “

[tabletop]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We get a full year of Gunnar and Adley.  And Grayson Rodriguez is a huge X factor.  Those are all to the good.  You could even say Stowers and Vavra could contribute more now that they have some major league experience.   Hall too.  There are a lot of guys who figure to be on the “up” slope of their careers.  But history shows that progress is not always linear.  

Yeah, seems to me like they could win less games next year but still be a better team based on how they get there.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Yeah, seems to me like they could win less games next year but still be a better team based on how they get there.

That is entirely possible.  But I hope not.  

[tabletop]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Then we are bound for a ceiling of "being competitive". We as fans deserve better than that.

I'm going to hold out hope throughout the entire offseason though. Once pitchers and catchers report that be mine time to make a full evaluation. If they aren't that into doing what it takes to win at the highest level, then why should we as fans accept that? I know I won't.

My best guess is that last year was a bit of a fluke and the front office thinks so too. Thinking back on teams like the Cubs, Astros, 76ers, etc. that have done this full "tank rebuild" or whatever you want to call it they mostly seemed to come out of nowhere one year and be contenders going forward after that. I'm hopeful 2023 is that year for the O's but I would expect it to be 2024. The Astros won 86 games, then 84 games, then they started their ALCS streak.

[Camden Yards]

Wow you guys don’t mess around. Went into a meeting and come out and it’s six pages on the word liftoff. 

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I think the biggest addition to our team will be Grayson Rodriguez.  I don't wish to jinx him but he has the goods to be the best Home Grown TOR pitcher we've had since Mussina.   

 

Just putting him in the rotation should be good for at least 3-4 more wins if he stays healthy, possibly more than that.   If Gibson pitches better than Lyles, that could be an additional 1-2 wins.  We could sure use Means to be healthy.   These things could inch us toward the 90 win mark...

 

We could still use 1 big masher bat and 1 good starting pitcher.  I hope we go all in on the Asian International guys...

I surely hope this is NOT the approach of the front office. Everything that you said may be true about Grayson Rodriguez (and I hope it is). 

But the problem with this approach is that would mean ALL of the other players on the team would have to at least perform the same. Do you think it is probable that will happen? 

Like Grayson could be awesome, but Kremer or Bradish or both could regress. Or Voth could turn back into a pumpkin. Or Bautista or Perez might not be as good or suffer injuries, etc.

This is why I believe it is important for all good, healthy orgs to have a growth mindset. Because if you are staying the same, regression is bound to occur. And we already weren't good enough last year with so many things going right.

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m hoping Mark Cuban is interested. I’d also be ok with Cal Ripken, Lucchino, and Bernstein . But, Cuban has ridiculous resources and would want to show his guns!

You could add Bezos, Plank and several other billionaires to this list. I don't care anything is better than what we have right now. I want someone who wants to win!

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You could add Bezos, Plank and several other billionaires to this list. I don't care anything is better than what we have right now. I want someone who wants to win!

And not move the team!

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, tabletop said:

My best guess is that last year was a bit of a fluke and the front office thinks so too. Thinking back on teams like the Cubs, Astros, 76ers, etc. that have done this full "tank rebuild" or whatever you want to call it they mostly seemed to come out of nowhere one year and be contenders going forward after that. I'm hopeful 2023 is that year for the O's but I would expect it to be 2024. The Astros won 86 games, then 84 games, then they started their ALCS streak.

If the F/O believes that last season was a fluke, wouldn't it make more sense to start adding serious talent to the team to account for the regression of other players?

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

And not move the team!

Yeah, that too!

[tabletop]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If the F/O believes that last season was a fluke, wouldn't it make more sense to start adding serious talent to the team to account for the regression of other players?

That would be one side of the coin. The other would be that they have serious impact talent ready to play this upcoming season so let them play and see what you have before you make that splash.

They were below average in most pitching and hitting categories last season. Adding Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, etc. to the team should make the overall team better even if the W/L results don't show it. Then you can build on that in 2024 and fill in the remaining holes.

For me, I would try and win next year. I understand the point in waiting one more year to make sure you know what you have though.

[deward]

4 minutes ago, tabletop said:

That would be one side of the coin. The other would be that they have serious impact talent ready to play this upcoming season so let them play and see what you have before you make that splash.

They were below average in most pitching and hitting categories last season. Adding Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, etc. to the team should make the overall team better even if the W/L results don't show it. Then you can build on that in 2024 and fill in the remaining holes.

For me, I would try and win next year. I understand the point in waiting one more year to make sure you know what you have though.

To another poster's point though, every year you wait now is a year of control blown for AR and Gunnar. That becomes particularly painful if they aren't extended.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, tabletop said:

That would be one side of the coin. The other would be that they have serious impact talent ready to play this upcoming season so let them play and see what you have before you make that splash.

They were below average in most pitching and hitting categories last season. Adding Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, etc. to the team should make the overall team better even if the W/L results don't show it. Then you can build on that in 2024 and fill in the remaining holes.

For me, I would try and win next year. I understand the point in waiting one more year to make sure you know what you have though.

Here's the thing for me - If they don't spend any real money this year, what's going to make things different next year? Our own players will only cost more due to arb raises. Following the logic of extreme financial caution, I could see that being used as a rational heading into 2024. "We need to spend our money on our own players". And the cycle of cheapness continues.

I just wish for ONCE the Orioles would do the right thing!

[tabletop]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Here's the thing for me - If they don't spend any real money this year, what's going to make things different next year? Our own players will only cost more due to arb raises. Following the logic of extreme financial caution, I could see that being used as a rational heading into 2024. "We need to spend our money on our own players". And the cycle of cheapness continues.

I just wish for ONCE the Orioles would do the right thing!

I hear ya, I hope so too.

[Sports Guy]

It’s an odd position. This team has a lot of young talent that should be getting better.  Otoh, with young talent, you will have growing pains.

On top of that, you had a lot of luck go your way last year.  You were largely healthy (Means notwithstanding) and you had a lot of guys come out of nowhere to be good.

Is that sustainable?  The wall helps. If the humidor, if being used again, helps.  The new schedule helps.

But you can’t go into a year where you absolutely should be contending, relying on waiver wire pick ups and mediocre replacements like Gibson to get you to the playoffs.  You have to make some significant upgrades to this team.

[Moose Milligan]

I'll blow my own horn here and remind you gentlemen that I've been saying for months to not be surprised if Elias doesn't spend a lot of money in free agency.  

The "significant upgrades" are going to be a full year of Gunnar, Adley, 125 innings of G-Rod and banking on some more production from higher ranked prospects in the system.