FA starting pitchers remaining as of 12/7

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Only Rodon, Bassitt, Senga, and Eovaldi for me.  And even Eovaldi doesn't quite scratch the itch.

I really don't want Manaea, Syndergaard, Cueto, Stripling, Wacha.

Quintana and Kluber are options for paupers if we're not the birds of prey we've been touted as.

Birds of prey, more like scavengers.

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m fine with riding with this,

GR, Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, Voth

Depth: Wells, Means, Hall, Watkins

I think we need a vet bat that can work the count. Brantley seems to fit. 

Yeah after Gibson, it's maybe a little hard to justify locking in a #3 or #4 for multiple years who will replace a younger guy in the rotation. It's much easier to justify a Rodon type because you're all but certain he's better than Kremer/Bradish/Voth/Hall. Manaea? Not as confident. 

That said, I guess signing anyone else does allow you to potentially improve the bullpen by shifting a starter there. 

[Aristotelian]

23 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is why 2023 simply cannot be another punt year.

By this time next year, we will only have 4 years of the Adley/Gunnar/GrayRod trio remaining. 

Sigh, I hate to be thinking this way, but the 23-24 free agent class looks like much more of a buyers market for 2nd tier pitching. After Ohtani, you will have Nola, Perez, Snell, Flaherty, Montas, Gray, Mahle, Flexen, Giolito, plus a few others depending on opt outs.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Right.  And arguably, the payroll will never be lower.  Choose your free agents wisely, but this should not just be a punt year. 

I do believe that it will ultimately end up being one for several specific reasons (not just one particular free agent pitcher signing), even if Elias will obviously not characterize it as such and will likely do his best to sell the idea that internal improvement alone can vault us into legitimate World Series contention.

I am desperately hoping that the regime makes a fool out of me. I will happily wear it if I am wrong.

[dzorange]

36 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m fine with riding with this,

GR, Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, Voth

Depth: Wells, Means, Hall, Watkins

I think we need a vet bat that can work the count. Brantley seems to fit. 

I don't have a problem rolling with that rotation for the time being. But I'd like to see them spend the money they're saving on a couple of bats. Guys like Martinez and Conforto. It could give the team some added flexibility if they attempt to make any moves via trade.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Sigh, I hate to be thinking this way, but the 23-24 free agent class looks like much more of a buyers market for 2nd tier pitching. After Ohtani, you will have Nola, Perez, Snell, Flaherty, Montas, Gray, Mahle, Flexen, Giolito, plus a few others depending on opt outs.  

And maybe a new ownership group will be in place by then.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

And maybe a new ownership group will be in place by then.

I would like a new ownership group more than any free agent signers.  Tired of all the Angeloses (sp but seems appropriate).

[geschinger]

36 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is why 2023 simply cannot be another punt year.

By this time next year, we will only have 4 years of the Adley/Gunnar/GrayRod trio remaining. 

The approach Elias is taking - if successful - doesn't have the limitation of short windows.  If they can't be signed to an extension, next man up.  If the talent pipeline is working, that doesn't preclude competing.  The Astros didn't have a window that closed when George Springer, Carlos Correa etc... departed.  Why would it for the Orioles if Elias is successful implementing a similar approach?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

If the talent pipeline is working

There's the rub.

I think it will be, but that doesn't mean it will be. Adley very much looks the part of a generational talent, taking advantage of that would be prudent.

[eddie83]

47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m fine with riding with this,

GR, Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, Voth

Depth: Wells, Means, Hall, Watkins

I think we need a vet bat that can work the count. Brantley seems to fit. 

The rotation is the weakest/unproven  part of the team. Look at the other contenders rotations. 

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is why 2023 simply cannot be another punt year.

By this time next year, we will only have 4 years of the Adley/Gunnar/GrayRod trio remaining. 

Maybe we will put some money into extending that window.  

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

There's the rub.

I think it will be, but that doesn't mean it will be. Adley very much looks the part of a generational talent, taking advantage of that would be prudent.

We probably have the wrong front office if we were to shift to an approach to optimize putting the pieces together for a short run and then when the window closes blow it up and start over again.   That can work too, text book example that comes to mind is the Phillies run in the late 2000s that they seemingly are trying to replicate now.  

I don't think you can take both approaches at the same time.  Personally I prefer the O's taking the approach that works for Hou over the one that worked for Philadelphia.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Maybe we will put some money into extending that window.  

It's possible, but he already has banked upwards of $10 million from his draft bonus, salary, and whatever he ends up getting from the new bonus pool system for young players. He could very easily bet on himself and go year to year until free agency since he is already pretty much set for life.

My guess is that the window to extend him closes on opening day next year if it is even open at all. 

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe we will put some money into extending that window.  

I do believe a seesaw between finding efficient uses for large sums this month and in March (the hometown feel good extensions cluster in Spring Training a little bit) exists.

Over the long haul, curious to see how Elias comes at the puzzle.    Age/position, an old college catcher feels least important vs. high school studs to procure FA seasons.     But maybe Adley's as far ahead of Gunnar-Grayson as those guys are ahead of Ramon Urias and Kyle Gibson.

[CaptainRedbeard]

At some point (if it hasn't happened already), they are going to need to turn to the trade market.  These are all of the SP projected to be worth 2.5+ fWAR next year (by Steamer) than I think could be even potentially available:

1. Burnes (MIL): 4.9
2. Rodon (FA): 4.7
3. Bieber (CLE): 3.7
4. Woodruff (MIL): 3.7
5. Lodolo (CIN): 3.7
6. Greene (CIN): 3.2
7. Singer (KC): 3.1
8. Gallen (ARI): 3.0
9. Lopez (MIA): 2.8
10. Bassit (FA): 2.5

This excludes SP on contending teams (and TEX, CHW, SF and Alcantara, depending on if you consider those teams contenders, as they are nonetheless unlikely to be available).

The other free agents are below 2.5: Eovaldi 2.4, Manaea 1.9, Kluber 1.7, Stripling 1.5, Wacha 1.5, Syndergaard 1.4.

IMO, they're better off overpaying for Bassit or Eovaldi if they don't think they can land any of the pitchers on that list above.  The QO may help keep their contracts in check. 

If not, MIL and CLE have said they are not looking to move their guys, so unless that's posturing or otherwise changes, it really comes down to whether you can pry one of those young/controllable SP from CIN/KC/ARI.  The cost would be very high, but we have the farm to do it and likely the desire given these pitchers fill a need and are cheap/controllable.  That said, it takes two to tango.

And of course there is Pablo Lopez - looking at the list this way, it's no surprise that is the only name that comes up again and again when thinking about trade options.