Who is left?

[Ripken]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When was the last time the O's signed a FA pitcher for 5 years?

We didn't do it because we don't do it?  Not much of an answer.  At some point, Elias will need to add at least 1 or 2 quality major league starters to this roster.  Since he doesn't seem interested in [amateur] drafting them, are we hoping they all come from trades and International drafts?  I hope the trades happen real soon then since the latter still needs time.  He could, on the other hand, buy one.  There are a few out there and the owner has pocketed a huge sum of money the last few years.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

I don't understand why we wouldn't be willing to beat that offer.  That's a very reasonable price for a pitcher with high upside.  

My guess is that Elias is very disciplined and has drawn a line at no more than 3 years.  I suspect his fear over long-term albatross contracts is greater than his aversion to high AAV contracts, although obviously there are limits there as well.  IMO Bassitt remains a possibility for the Orioles until some other team adds a fourth year.

We don't know if there were other considerations in play besides money for Senga, but if I were in Elias' shoes, I would have taken the risk and beaten that offer.

[oriolesacox]

https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1602189383238647808?s=46&t=P_mncaaohBRYqEd25ccsZg

Another arm down. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 hours ago, 24fps said:

My guess is that Elias is very disciplined and has drawn a line at no more than 3 years.  I suspect his fear over long-term albatross contracts is greater than his aversion to high AAV contracts, although obviously there are limits there as well.  IMO Bassitt remains a possibility for the Orioles until some other team adds a fourth year.

We don't know if there were other considerations in play besides money for Senga, but if I were in Elias' shoes, I would have taken the risk and beaten that offer.

Or ownership drew the line.

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, oriolesacox said:

https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1602189383238647808?s=46&t=P_mncaaohBRYqEd25ccsZg

Another arm down. 

If Manaea 2/25 is true prices are coming down.  How does that effect Syndergraad and Eovaldi?

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Manaea 2/25 is true prices are coming down.  How does that effect Syndergraad and Eovaldi?

Eovaldi having draft pick compensation attached does not help him. Not sure how much it impacts Bassitt and Rodon. 
 

I can’t see Noah getting a 3 year deal now. That said, only takes one team. 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, oriolesacox said:

https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1602189383238647808?s=46&t=P_mncaaohBRYqEd25ccsZg

Another arm down. 

Free agent prices are insane 

[Aristotelian]

55 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Eovaldi having draft pick compensation attached does not help him. Not sure how much it impacts Bassitt and Rodon. 
 

I can’t see Noah getting a 3 year deal now. That said, only takes one team. 

Elias did say in one of the interviews that the pick is not a deal breaker.

I'm kind of glad we didn't end up with Manaea. Gibson is projected for similar production but for fewer dollars and only one year. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 hours ago, oriolesacox said:

https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1602189383238647808?s=46&t=P_mncaaohBRYqEd25ccsZg

Another arm down. 

Fine by me, we should be targeting a good starter now, not another reclamation project.

[jamalshw]

I'm surprised we didn't jump on Manaea, he just seemed like the target. I'm not upset we didn't get him and am hoping for someone better (either Bassitt or a trade), but I did think he was the most likely add. 

[HakunaSakata]

19 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Fine by me, we should be targeting a good starter now, not another reclamation project.

...but we're apparently not willing to give out 4, 5, or 6 years deal, which all the "good" starters will command. And I know, on the surface, Manaea had a rough 20222, but his xFIP was 3.96, which offers some hope. He's also a lefty, which would have played well at OPACY. I personally would have preferred him quite a bit over someone like Syndergaard, Greinke, Cueto, etc. 

[interloper]

3 hours ago, oriolesacox said:

https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1602189383238647808?s=46&t=P_mncaaohBRYqEd25ccsZg

Another arm down. 

Really thought this would be our guy. Interesting! Pretty reasonable deal too. 

Syndergaard it is?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

...but we're apparently not willing to give out 4, 5, or 6 years deal, which all the "good" starters will command. And I know, on the surface, Manaea had a rough 20222, but his xFIP was 3.96, which offers some hope. He's also a lefty, which would have played well at OPACY. I personally would have preferred him quite a bit over someone like Syndergaard, Greinke, Cueto, etc. 

Avg. Exit Velocity- 8th percentile

Hard Hit %- 14th percentile

Barrel %- 18th percentile

Chase Rate- 24th percentile

xSLG- 31st percentile

Fastball Velocity- 20th percentile

Fastball Spin- 7th percentile

 

[Just Regular]

Interesting week to see if top guys keep going at a 1/day rate that would place virtually everyone of any importance by Christmas.

The ~Friday lull made sense with half the game's GM's jet-lagged plus probably getting more than a few hours sleep for first time in 4-5 days.

Senga-Kiermaier-Manaea kind of murky if they represent things slowing down or keeping their momentum.

Things will shut down end of next week for Christmas - we'll see how Boras plays Correa.    He's still out there as the one acquistion for me for whom bypassing the Eovaldi/Bassitt level Arms would be exciting.    I trust him more 4-5 years out to hold ~$30mm in field value than I do those other guys to hold $20mm, apart from the fact that for 2023 he represents maybe 3 more marginal Wins that would be very well leveraged if BAL is about a .500 team right now.

The leaders of the Benintendi-Conforto-Brantley-Gallo-Belt group are solidly in the Top 10 overall, so some of those match possibilities are probably at top of some Club's To Do lists by now.     A Conforto's patience for Mike Elias asking him if he can wait until he gains a view whether he can get Chris Bassitt or not might be running out.

[Just Regular]

14 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

...but we're apparently not willing to give out 4, 5, or 6 years deal, which all the "good" starters will command. And I know, on the surface, Manaea had a rough 20222, but his xFIP was 3.96, which offers some hope. He's also a lefty, which would have played well at OPACY. I personally would have preferred him quite a bit over someone like Syndergaard, Greinke, Cueto, etc. 

Mostly for fun, I am not considering Noah Syndergaard better than Jordan Lyles just because he has a famous name.    I think he is more Orioles Matt Harvey than Mets Matt Harvey by now.    His TJ was March 2020, so he got whatever Year 2 out bump he was going to get in 2022, and Lyles (not that great) K-BB was actually superior.

Bassitt-Eovaldi-Kluber-Stripling is it.    Kluber's results were very good but watching him by the end of the year it looked like last thread.    The Rays pitching everyone in the world but him with their season on the line and him going instant Ubaldo once they ran out of guys was my last 2022 impression there.     Kremer, Stripling (and Tony Gonsolin) are for me all small school, pitchability types the Dodgers helped make - they're okay, but one feels like enough.    Stripling is probably a better Dean Kremer.

Are 60 innings of Taylor Rogers and 60 innings of Michael Baumann better or worse than 120 innings of Drew Smyly (guessing Smyly is sturdy enough to keep Baumann in Norfolk all year there) and both cost about 1/10 like Gibson?