The warning signs are there for the reading

[ThomasTomasz]

21 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

None of us wants to think the worse. Even after all these years of being a fan of an Angelos-family owned team, not one of us wants to think that the Orioles are not going to spend. 

Unfortunately, there are a few too many yellow flags and the Orioles losing out on Chris Bassitt on a 3-year contract to Division rival (Blue Jays) should make fans take heed of the warning signs.

We know that John Angelos is currently calling the shots, but we also know that he and his mother are being sued by his brother Louis.

We then add in Mike Elias talking back his comment about "taking off", and the fact he no longer is talking about the Orioles adding significant payroll. 

Now, do all of these add up to an absolute red flag that says the Orioles are not going to sign a significant starting pitcher to a multi-year contract, no, but the signs sure do start to point towards the same 'ol same 'ol for the Orioles when it comes to adding good free agent talent.

Now could they still be able to add significant payroll by trading for that starting pitcher, sure. Is the off season over, nope. 

But watching another Division rival get better while the Orioles treadwater in December is certainly more of the same and doesn't make me feel good at all as an Orioles fan.

More often than not since 2000, all the way through 2017, the Orioles had a payroll in the top half of the league.  I had this discussion with a Mets fan on another forum a few years back about our spending and the Wilpon’s spending.  

Of course, this was not what we are doing now with allocating more resources to organization infrastructure and development, but even back then, Angelos would spend money……it was just spent poorly.  Whether it was an over the hill veteran bat like David Segui or reliever like Chad Bradford, or middling starting pitchers more recently like Ubaldo, Cobb and Gallardo, Angelos did spend, but rarely at the top of the market.  

I’ll be honest……a lot of those starters on the market reminded me of the three I mentioned above, and i am OK with missing out on them.  But the red flags of talking about adding payroll, and that not happening, as well as the rumors of how Louis “bought” the law firm which is nearly bankrupt, is concerning, as well as the latest MASN rulings.  

Those things point to a cash flow issue, which may ultimately impact the ceiling for this current run we are about to embark on.  At the same time, I’m cautious that maybe the prices just soared this off-season, and we may be pumping the brakes for a year to see what exactly transpires next off-season. 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

 

Rodon just ain't the guy to take that gamble on, IMO.

 

I largely agree but I'd still like to see them spend the money and go for it.  

Anyway, earlier today it looked like the Yankees were preparing an offer, I hope he becomes their mistake.  

[deward]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

For some guys it seems to have made a significant difference. I was dorkind around with a spreadsheet the other night...

 

	PA	ERA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dean Kremer Home	250	2.84	0.239	0.293	0.317	0.611
Dean Kremer Away	262	3.63	0.285	0.341	0.46	0.801
Jordan Lyles Home	356	3.47	0.277	0.329	0.399	0.725
Jordan Lyles Away	418	5.25	0.275	0.333	0.5	0.833
Cionel Perez Home	125	0.29	0.2	0.28	0.218	0.498
Cionel Perez Away	109	2.73	0.242	0.303	0.343	0.646

Sure, some of the pitchers ended up with better stats, but again, so what? They didn't become more talented pitchers, you just put them in a bigger park. The visiting pitchers get to pitch in the same park. Where's the advantage for the O's there? 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I largely agree but I'd still like to see them spend the money and go for it.  

Anyway, earlier today it looked like the Yankees were preparing an offer, I hope he becomes their mistake.  

He's a mistake if he has a major injury and it impacts him in lost time and lost effectiveness.  The last two years show that he's arrived as a pitcher.    He'll provide tons of value if he can stay on the field.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He's a mistake if he has a major injury and it impacts him in lost time and lost effectiveness.  The last two years show that he's arrived as a pitcher.    He'll provide tons of value if he can stay on the field.

That's true, there's big boom/bust potential here.  Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating we sign him for 7 years but like I said, even if we did I'd be happy that we finally have shown that we'll spend money.  It's more about that message than the actual deal.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

That's true, there's big boom/bust potential here.  Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating we sign him for 7 years but like I said, even if we did I'd be happy that we finally have shown that we'll spend money.  It's more about that message than the actual deal.  

I think I would go to the limit on Rodon.  His talent warrants 7/210.   He just turned 30.  Sign me up for the 30-36 seasons.  He's EXACTLY what we need.   An ace.  A LHP.    We don't lose anyone because we signed Rodon.   Does he keep us from retaining Gunnar and/or Adley down the road?   That's a valid question.   But that's also a worst-case scenario.   The contracts that have blown up in our face are the ones where we get the leftovers (Cobb and Ubaldo) on bargain deals or bid against ourselves for a player with red flags (Chris Davis).

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think I would go to the limit on Rodon.  His talent warrants 7/210.   He just turned 30.  Sign me up for the 30-36 seasons.  He's EXACTLY what we need.   An ace.  A LHP.    We don't lose anyone because we signed Rodon.   Does he keep us from retaining Gunnar and/or Adley down the road?   That's a valid question.   But that's also a worst-case scenario.   The contracts that have blown up in our face are the ones where we get the leftovers (Cobb and Ubaldo) on bargain deals or bid against ourselves for a player with red flags (Chris Davis).

Some would argue that Rodon's injury history is the red flag.  I just tried doing research a little while ago, can't find a definitive list of what his injuries have been.  If he hasn't had TJ yet, you can bet that would happen on our watch.

That said, I agree, he is what we need.  He has some nasty stuff that's improved.  He can be a #1 or a very strong #2.  

I don't think 7/210 should prohibit us from locking up Gunnar + Adley down the road.  

 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think I would go to the limit on Rodon.  His talent warrants 7/210.   He just turned 30.  Sign me up for the 30-36 seasons.  He's EXACTLY what we need.   An ace.  A LHP.    We don't lose anyone because we signed Rodon.   Does he keep us from retaining Gunnar and/or Adley down the road?   That's a valid question.   But that's also a worst-case scenario.   The contracts that have blown up in our face are the ones where we get the leftovers (Cobb and Ubaldo) on bargain deals or bid against ourselves for a player with red flags (Chris Davis).

Well, Rodon has red flags, i.e., he’s pitched 162+ innings exactly twice in his career.  But I feel that’s the story of virtually the entire FA class.   None of these guys have much track record of durability (except, ironically, Kyle Gibson).   So, it would be nice to get someone who’s actually an ace when he’s healthy, rather than some guy who’s a 60/40 bet to be better than Alex Voth if he’s healthy.  

[interloper]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think I would go to the limit on Rodon.  His talent warrants 7/210.   He just turned 30.  Sign me up for the 30-36 seasons.  He's EXACTLY what we need.   An ace.  A LHP.    We don't lose anyone because we signed Rodon.   Does he keep us from retaining Gunnar and/or Adley down the road?   That's a valid question.   But that's also a worst-case scenario.   The contracts that have blown up in our face are the ones where we get the leftovers (Cobb and Ubaldo) on bargain deals or bid against ourselves for a player with red flags (Chris Davis).

7/210 would be super risky but of course I'd be excited and worrying about all that stuff much later. If anything just having the confirmation that, yes, we can/will spend on players would absolutely overrule any worry on my part for a long time. I'd be thrilled and relieved to have that box finally checked off. 

That said, it sure seems like he's gonna be a Yankee by tomorrow. And nothing about Elias' recent comments have me expecting much of anything. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by interloper

[owknows]

54 minutes ago, deward said:

Sure, some of the pitchers ended up with better stats, but again, so what? They didn't become more talented pitchers, you just put them in a bigger park. The visiting pitchers get to pitch in the same park. Where's the advantage for the O's there? 

The point was that some of Baltimore pitchers improved quite significantly at home. And of course this lead to a substantial overall improvement to their stats. The advantage to the O's as previously stated, was that this provides a potential incentive for veteran pitchers to sign a FA deal to play in Baltimore on a short deal, in an effort to reinvigorate their careers.

Edited December 13, 2022 by owknows

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

7/210 would be super risky but of course I'd be excited and worrying about all that stuff much later. If anything just having the confirmation that, yes, we can/will spend on players would absolutely overrule any worry on my part for a long time. I'd be thrilled and relieved to have that box finally checked off. 

That said, it sure seems like he's gonna be a Yankee by tomorrow. And nothing about Elias' recent comments have me expecting much of anything. 

Yes.  It sounds like it's the Yankees or the Giants or the Twins but not the Orioles.  Oh well!

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I largely agree but I'd still like to see them spend the money and go for it.  

Anyway, earlier today it looked like the Yankees were preparing an offer, I hope he becomes their mistake.  

That would be neato  

 

[Woody Held]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's more likely to be the inheritance tax forcing the sale than MLB.

I am sure a Lawyer of Angelos’s  skill has figured a way around that

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Woody Held said:

I am sure a Lawyer of Angelos’s  skill has figured a way around that

The one that couldn't pass the bar?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That would be neato  

 

Hey if we can't win might as well hope someone else loses.