The warning signs are there for the reading

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Exactly. Even if we had the Yankees budget, paying a guy $25M for below replacement value production puts you at a severe competitive disadvantage versus the Yankees who have no Chris Davis. If you have half the Yankees budget, you are severely constrained. Then it just takes a couple more bad contracts (Trumbo, Hardy, Jones) and you basically can't spend any money for the forseeable future. Davis wasn't the only decision that killed us but it was certainly a big part of it. Would have been so much better off giving him a QO or trading him when we had the opportunity. 

They signed judge ….. He will be 31 in April. His prior 4 years before he shot his load this season were worth a combined 18.6 war. That’s an average of 2.7 WAR. At 40 million per year he has to be worth 5 Wins per season. 
 

It’s hard to say what he will do this coming year but he was a 1.1 WAR player in 2021.

 

If I had to guess, I’m guessing the contract is a monumental bust. I’m guessing they probably get value for 2-3 years and are underwater after that even if the decline isn’t sharp. 

So to break even he needs to be worth 45 WAR. If draft kings offers odds I’d be willing to place a sizable wager against. Honestly, I’d put the over under around 30. 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Roll Tide

[JR Oriole]

If Judge leads the Yankees to a World Series championship, that will probably be well worth it to them regardless of the WAR he puts up in the process.  For them, it is all about winning championships and their 1 title in 22 seasons just isn't going to cut it.  So while I would be very surprised to see him put up 45 WAR over the life of his contract, 15 WAR and a parade in early November may do the trick.  Os fans can continue to have fun with the dollars to WAR ratio calculations and the will they/won't they have buyers remorse game.  

[owknows]

7 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Sure, they need to make trades.   Ideally they would trade Mateo and Urias to clear room for Henderson, Westburg and Ortiz this year.  Norby probably needs to move to 1B or outfield because of his defense anyway.  Mayo and Holliday are a couple of years away.   

The problem is that the only way left to get a real front line starter for 2023 is to trade a bunch of really good prospects.  They aren't getting a number one or two starter with Urias and Mateo.   

They are going to have to face the reality of a crowded middle infield.

Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Holliday.

You're going to have to trade two of these guys. You can't play 'em all.

And yeah... for two of these guys (and a lottery ticket) you could get an emerging quality starter. Better quality than the team could currently afford/attract from Free Agency.

Before long, the same thing will manifest itself in the outfield.

Producing considerable trade possibilities.

Edited December 13, 2022 by owknows

[One eyed Bird]

Just embarrassing, Hopefully ol King Peter does us a solid finally and heads off to where ever scum bag ambulance chasing lawyers go and the rest of the clan puts the orioles up for sale ASAP. What this family has done to the Orioles and Oriole fans is just disgraceful 

[webbrick2010]

Have the Orioles signed a long term lease? NO

Will the Orioles sign long term FA's NO

Will the Orioles be sold in the next 3 years YES (opinion)

Will the new ownership group keep the Orioles in Baltimore ???, probably assuming MLB forces them to.

[HakunaSakata]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

If I am a wealthy spendthrift, sure, I go to the dealership and buy whatever they have at the market price. If I am on a budget, I am going to search for value. I may calculate that driving a succession of beaters has a lower annual cost than buying a new car. Yes, I need a car, but that doesn't mean I just need to accept the market rate for a new one. 

If you don't have a car (and need one) and it's a sellers market you absolutely do (unless you want to walk to work). And Bassitt was the last affordable/reliable option, since he didn't require a long term commitment. Now, with the exception of Rodon who Elias indirectly ruled out after his comment about not giving out long term deals, we're down to players who are the pitching equivalent of Ford Pintos to fill our 2023 rotation. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 hours ago, Emory Eagle said:

I agree the warning signs are there.   To be honest we’re pretty close to worst case scenario since the mid to late 90s at least.  Hard to be optimistic about this club.  

I wouldn't quite go that far. The optimism lies in the youth / potential talent of our key players. The pessimism lies in my belief that ownership will make any moves that require spending money to support them other than the bare minimum, like the Kyle Gibson signing. 

[HakunaSakata]

9 hours ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

I hope, if what you believe is true, that he takes a parting shot on his way out the door. I never understood why GM's, who get "misled" by ownership, never drop the bomb. You guys are going to say its career suicide, but I don't believe that. Elias can say exactly what he feels and still get another job.

 

Rule #1 of any professional job is to never burn any bridges, no matter how intolerable the work environment actually was. The only exception would be is if the employer seriously crossed the line (i.e., see Dan Snyder).  Otherwise complaining and/or spilling the beans after you leave accomplishes nothing. That's why we'll never hear a peep out of Elias or any other former GM unless they decide to write a memoir after they retire. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Rule #1 of any professional job is to never burn any bridges, no matter how intolerable the work environment actually was. The only exception would be is if the employer seriously crossed the line (i.e., see Dan Snyder).  Otherwise complaining and/or spilling the beans after you leave accomplishes nothing. That's why we'll never hear a peep out of Elias or any other former GM unless they decide to write a memoir after they retire. 

While what you say is true, that burning bridges isn't a good thing, having my hands tied, after the fact, IS burning a bridge IMO. Not allowing Elias to do the job you hired him for, is a reason for him/anyone to exit down the fire escape. Just once I want to see a GM tell the truth and save his "co-workers" the future pain.

[yark14]

5 hours ago, Emory Eagle said:

I agree the warning signs are there.   To be honest we’re pretty close to worst case scenario since the mid to late 90s at least.  Hard to be optimistic about this club.  

Good thing is that we have an incredible young core.  They just won't have much for veteran support.  We're just going to let the kids carry the load.

[Bemorewins]

I think it’s easier for fans/people to advocate for these extremist, experimental, dogmatic approaches to team building who don’t live in this market/community. Because they don’t have to deal with the consequences of facing how an irrelevant sports franchise impacts the community. 
 

I know some may not agree or even care but one of the biggest things that killed something like Harbor Place is the irrelevance of the Orioles. Look at its decline that coincided with the Orioles decline. It just couldn’t survive without the consistent foot tragic generated by people consistently attending Orioles games.

For all those who want the Orioles to consistently go cheap, rebuild/reload (whatever you want to call it) every 3 years or so, keep no marketable players, and reproduce a “pipeline” are you concerned at all with the potential consequence of this approach in terms of alienating fans?

For me as someone who was born here (lives here), bleeds orange and black, but also is conceded about the community’s well being, and the franchise relevance and long term viability (given its history and the declining popularity of the sport); I want the best for them like many of you. I just don’t see a good outcome or even a justifiable reason to risk further alienating the fans you still have by taking this approach of being extremist when it comes to spending. 
 

You can cite the Rays as a success. But as a person who was born here and still lives here, this town will not support “being satisfied with second place” type of approach. It’s why the Ravens fans aren’t satisfied. They win consistently and make the playoffs. But this town craves a winner.

[Can_of_corn]

9 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Exactly. Even if we had the Yankees budget, paying a guy $25M for below replacement value production puts you at a severe competitive disadvantage versus the Yankees who have no Chris Davis. If you have half the Yankees budget, you are severely constrained. Then it just takes a couple more bad contracts (Trumbo, Hardy, Jones) and you basically can't spend any money for the forseeable future. Davis wasn't the only decision that killed us but it was certainly a big part of it. Would have been so much better off giving him a QO or trading him when we had the opportunity. 

It could have had an impact.

It would have had an impact on the 2012-2016 run for instance.

But considering that the team crated around the contract it didn't. 

The 2018 team crashes either way.

The 2019 team wasn't going to be any different if Davis wasn't there.

In this particular instance the contract wasn't an issue.

[Going Underground]

54 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Have the Orioles signed a long term lease? NO

Will the Orioles sign long term FA's NO

Will the Orioles be sold in the next 3 years YES (opinion)

Will the new ownership group keep the Orioles in Baltimore ???, probably assuming MLB forces them to.

I don't think the Orioles are going anywhere  The lease will be signed soon. It comes with the most public money for a baseball stadium besides Yankee  Stadium ever. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

They signed judge ….. He will be 31 in April. His prior 4 years before he shot his load this season were worth a combined 18.6 war. That’s an average of 2.7 WAR. 
 

 

 

 

 

1.  Check your math!

2. Judges 162 game average, according to BR is 8.2

3.  Will he stay healthy?

4. How will the big guy age?

5. No better than Frank Howard, I hope.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Elias has been nothing but positive about ownership. If there is any friction going on, he has shown zero signs of it. Could be they are selling the team and he is in on it. 

There is no real evidence that the Angelos family is preventing Elias from doing what he said he would do, other than the fact that Elias hasn’t done what he said he would do (yet).   For me, it’s on Elias to carry out his plan.   I’m not blaming the owners absent some clear evidence to support it.