The warning signs are there for the reading

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

My prescription was to offer early extensions to emerging talent.

I also don't really understand the default position being that owners are evil if they don't spend unnecessary money.

If they continue to put a bad product on the field, I'll be right there with you.

But this same family spent ridiculous money to put a BAD product on the field.

 

They don’t have to be evil to be terrible owners. They’ve consistently failed to spend any money on the team for 5 years now. They also didn’t spend ridiculous money at any time. 2018 was a really bad team, but it’s not because they spent in previous years. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea that was a head scratcher for sure

Is it really?

Extend your emerging homegrown talent early and often rather than spend that money on FA's?

Is that really that much of a mystery?

Pay for younger years not older years.

Trade when you need to add.

Seems like a strategy to me.

You may disagree with the strategy, but is it that confusing?

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, owknows said:

No. I'm not.

As we discussed earlier.. the Rays are closest to doing what I advocate... but they still do things I'd suggest they not do.

[deward]

Just now, owknows said:

Thank goodness Elias will never make mistakes with Free Agents.

Signing them to long contracts... cuz that's what it takes...

Particularly to get them HERE... More dollars... more years... More risk.

You built a farm stocked with middle infield talent for a reason.

TRADE for your pitching.

Young emerging controllable arms for young emerging infielders of which we now have a logjam.

Did Chris Davis teach you nothing?

Trading for pitching isn't any less expensive than signing them as free agents, it's just a different type of expense.

What was the Davis contract supposed to teach me? That bad evaluations produce bad results? That bad owners make bad decisions? I don't know of any other lessons to learn there.

You don't seem to realize it, but you're making my point. It would be a fallacy to say that ALL big free agent contracts turn out to be a mistake, but some of do, of course. No approach is foolproof, which is why relying on a single approach, to the exclusion of other options, would be a recipe for failure. Wanting a team that relies heavily on a strong farm system is fine, even desirable. I'm not advocating for a team that is built through free agency. I want a team that is prepared, when the right moment comes, to seize an opportunity that will have a maximum impact on their chances at a title, even if it means adding payroll. Even if means taking a chance that the value they get in return for a contract turns out to be front-loaded. No team is ever crippled by one bad contract, not even the O's with Davis. A series of them, sure, but not one.

 

[owknows]

Just now, waroriole said:

They don’t have to be evil to be terrible owners. They’ve consistently failed to spend any money on the team for 5 years now. They also didn’t spend ridiculous money at any time. 2018 was a really bad team, but it’s not because they spent in previous years. 

Would money spent on top FA's while simultaneously tanking for top draft picks have been wisdom?

Would it even have been possible to attract top FA's to that environment?

Come on...

[Brion McClanahan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This is my take as well.  I’m not into conspiracy theories where Elias goes out on a limb with a statement and then ownership pulls the rug out from under him.  And I also don’t think Elias said anything he didn’t believe.  He just hasn’t found the opportunities that are to his liking yet.  And, it’s certainly possible that he misjudged how robust the FA market would be and missed some opportunities.

You and Sports Guy are the rational people on this topic. I think the Os management is very high on their own players--"I like our guys"--and doesn't want to overspend for players that are substantially older and will hopefully be not much better, if at all, from the young players on the team. Is Correa better defensively than Mateo or Henderson? Or Ortiz? With the bat, yes, for now, but Henderson could be a much cheaper version. I think he will be. Turner is losing a step defensively, and no shift next year. Is Manea better than what the Os already have? How about Bassitt? I was on board with him, but we don't know the terms of the deal. Will he get an op out clause? And Bassitt isn't left handed. That is what Elias has been selling...Rondon....

The bat market is underwhelming to say the least outside of the SS position and Judge, and Judge wasn't signing here. The Os have that locked up, it seems.

Let's wait to see how the rest of the off season plays out before jumping to conclusions. At the end of the day, we're all fans and want a winner. Remember, the Os had the best record in the AL East for a good part of the season, and their young players will be better next year, hopefully. Why waste money?

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

Would money spent on top FA's while simultaneously tanking for top draft picks have been wisdom?

Would it even have been possible to attract top FA's to that environment?

Come on...

Who said anything about top FAs? We weren’t even seeking competent major leaguers. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, owknows said:

Is it really?

Extend your emerging homegrown talent early and often rather than spend that money on FA's?

Is that really that much of a mystery?

Pay for younger years not older years.

Trade when you need to add.

Seems like a strategy to me.

You may disagree with the strategy, but is it that confusing?

It’s not confusing..it’s just wrong.

You absolutely have to supplement your roster with FA signings and trades.

What you want to do is not sustainable. There is zero chance it works.

Now I agree you don’t get into big long term FA deals. I agree about not keeping many guys on their “second contracts” (ie after they are done with arbitration).  I agree about trading a lot of guys when they are in the 4th/5th year of arb.

But you have to spend and you have to supplement. There is no way around that.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Sports Guy

[owknows]

Just now, waroriole said:

Who said anything about top FAs? We weren’t even seeking competent major leaguers. 

Again, would a team trying to tank in order to build the farm system be expected by you to be seeking competent major league players to sign as Free Agents?

And would competent major league players come here under those circumstances?

 

[deward]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

Again, would a team trying to tank in order to build the farm system be expected by you to be seeking competent major league players to sign as Free Agents?

And would competent major league players come here under those circumstances?

 

A team asking people to pay money to sit in the stands and watch their product has a responsibility to make that product at least be watchable, I would argue.

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not confusing..it’s just wrong.

You absolutely have to supplement your roster with FA signings and trades.

What you want to do is not sustainable. There is zero chance it works.

Now I agree you don’t get into big long term FA deals. I agree about not keeping many guys on their “second contracts” (ie after they are done with arbitration).  I agree about trading a lot of guys when they are in the 4th/5th year of arb.

But you have to spend and you have to supplement. There is no way around that.

I have clearly stated my preference is to supplement the roster by trade.

And that I believe this farm is stocked enough to sustain that.

And you have clearly stated that you don't want big, long term FA deals.

So I don't know that we're that far apart.

 

[maybenxtyr]

16 minutes ago, owknows said:

Is it really?

Extend your emerging homegrown talent early and often rather than spend that money on FA's?

Is that really that much of a mystery?

Pay for younger years not older years.

Trade when you need to add.

Seems like a strategy to me.

You may disagree with the strategy, but is it that confusing?

I don't care how they go about it, but I would like to see them add another pitcher. 

 

I don't think most people here are advocating for the top dollar guys either. 

 

Trade from a surplus to augment a roster that was a surprise but fell short last season.

 

I believe replacing Odor with what I hope will be Wedtburg next season will do wonders for the lineup.

[waroriole]

7 minutes ago, owknows said:

Again, would a team trying to tank in order to build the farm system be expected by you to be seeking competent major league players to sign as Free Agents?

And would competent major league players come here under those circumstances?

 

Yes and yes. They especially should t be trying to tank for 4 years. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, deward said:

A team asking people to pay money to sit in the stands and watch their product has a responsibility to make that product at least be watchable, I would argue.

I'd say the goal should be championship baseball.

I would contend however, that top FA contracts are not necessary to that end.

 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Yes and yes. They especially should t be trying to tank for 4 years. 

They have the best farm in baseball... and it isn't going to run dry for awhile.

It sucked to slog through it... but I'm ready to see it pay off...  with the players we suffered for.