MLB Pipeline's Top 100 2023 Draft Prospects

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The other thing is we have not seen Elias show the ability to trade depth position prospects for upper level pitching prospects or major league ready arms yet.

Agreed.  He's traded the Lopez/Mancini types, but he needs to do what you're saying and trade from depth.  

And to add on that, the ability to sift through the hype from those with talent.  Like trading the Matusz/Gregg Jefferies/Sidd Finch/Delmon Young types who didn't live up to expectations for all sorts of reasons.  Sure, we have to trade something to get something, but I'd rather trade the eventual flops than the eventual hits.  

[Number5]

32 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'd rather trade the eventual flops than the eventual hits.  

Yeah, I'm sure everyone would.  Of course, if that was an ability anyone actually possessed, they never would have acquired the eventual flops in the first place.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Yeah, I'm sure everyone would.  Of course, if that was an ability anyone actually possessed, they never would have acquired the eventual flops in the first place.

All but one (and even that one is a fun story) of those I mentioned above had expectations and market value well above their performance.  Arbitraging the difference is the goal.

[SpOkane]

Not sure if it has been mentioned but the O's have 5 of the first 100 picks (17, 53, 63, 86, 100) w/ #100 being the compensation for not signing Nolan McLean last year.

With pundits saying it is a deeper draft, if Elias makes a trade for a pitcher, I hope he can get a comp pick as part of the package. Some folks have mentioned Flexen from Seattle (pick #30), Lopez from MIA (#35), or Gray from MIN (#34). I also wouldn't be against if the trade partner didn't want to part with the pick if the O's "traded up" instead-swapped picks.

[btdart20]

5 hours ago, SpOkane said:

Not sure if it has been mentioned but the O's have 5 of the first 100 picks (17, 53, 63, 86, 100) w/ #100 being the compensation for not signing Nolan McLean last year.

With pundits saying it is a deeper draft, if Elias makes a trade for a pitcher, I hope he can get a comp pick as part of the package. Some folks have mentioned Flexen from Seattle (pick #30), Lopez from MIA (#35), or Gray from MIN (#34). I also wouldn't be against if the trade partner didn't want to part with the pick if the O's "traded up" instead-swapped picks.

I like the idea of getting an extra comp pick (or moving up) if possible.  

And to kick start the debate and to draw the ire of a certain @ yuG stropS - I can see them going underslot with the #17 pick if the guy they really want doesn't fall to them.  But I haven't seen slot values yet either... 

[sportsfan8703]

If we were offered a comp pick for Tate and Akin, would Elias turn that down?

[sportsfan8703]

Cleveland, Arizona, and Colorado all have comp B picks and seemingly want to compete. 

[SpOkane]

16 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we were offered a comp pick for Tate and Akin, would Elias turn that down?

I thought this was kind of a reach, but last year right before the draft Atlanta traded 3 prospects including their #1 (Drew Waters) for just KC's comp pick (#35). So maybe? I would think solid MLB bullpen pitchers would have a little more value than those 3 players though.  I think the shine was off Waters at the time, but it looked like he had a nice MLB debut. 

[CharmCityHokie]

On 1/6/2023 at 10:41 AM, SpOkane said:

Not sure if it has been mentioned but the O's have 5 of the first 100 picks (17, 53, 63, 86, 100) w/ #100 being the compensation for not signing Nolan McLean last year.

With pundits saying it is a deeper draft, if Elias makes a trade for a pitcher, I hope he can get a comp pick as part of the package. Some folks have mentioned Flexen from Seattle (pick #30), Lopez from MIA (#35), or Gray from MIN (#34). I also wouldn't be against if the trade partner didn't want to part with the pick if the O's "traded up" instead-swapped picks.

I'm curious, does anyone recall if this has happened in MLB? Trading of comp picks is relatively new and I don't recall off the top of my head any team trading up. I'm just curious. It's an interesting concept for sure. 

[SpOkane]

3 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I'm curious, does anyone recall if this has happened in MLB? Trading of comp picks is relatively new and I don't recall off the top of my head any team trading up. I'm just curious. It's an interesting concept for sure. 

At least once, in 2020.

TRADE DETAILS
Rays to get: OF José Martínez, OF Randy Arozarena, Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick (38th overall)
Cardinals to get: LHP Matthew Liberatore, C Edgardo Rodriguez, Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick (66th overall)

Rays trade for Jose Martinez from Cardinals (mlb.com)

 

Ended up being TB #37 Alika  Williams (ss) and STL #63 Tink Hence (rhp).

Edited January 8, 2023 by SpOkane

[CharmCityHokie]

16 hours ago, SpOkane said:

At least once, in 2020.

TRADE DETAILS
Rays to get: OF José Martínez, OF Randy Arozarena, Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick (38th overall)
Cardinals to get: LHP Matthew Liberatore, C Edgardo Rodriguez, Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick (66th overall)

Rays trade for Jose Martinez from Cardinals (mlb.com)

 

Ended up being TB #37 Alika  Williams (ss) and STL #63 Tink Hence (rhp).

Thanks for that info, I find it interesting. 

I don't know if speaks more to the complete randomness of MLB drafts, or the fact that TB drafts super weird and the Cardinals seem to be savants at drafting, but St. Louis seemed to get the better end of that draft pick exchange just judging the stat lines:

Alika Williams

Tink Hence

[SpOkane]

4 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Thanks for that info, I find it interesting. 

I don't know if speaks more to the complete randomness of MLB drafts, or the fact that TB drafts super weird and the Cardinals seem to be savants at drafting, but St. Louis seemed to get the better end of that draft pick exchange just judging the stat lines:

Alika Williams

Tink Hence

I agree. Not even close in that comparison. Williams isn't even on MLB Pipeline's end of Year Top 30 for TB with their #30 rated a 40.  Hence is #6 for STL and  Hence is a 55. However, Williams was rated #40 on draft day and Hence was #84. SO, neither one was considered a surprise.

Elias did cut his scouting teeth at STL.  So hopefully his drafts are more STL. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 1/6/2023 at 10:41 AM, SpOkane said:

Not sure if it has been mentioned but the O's have 5 of the first 100 picks (17, 53, 63, 86, 100) w/ #100 being the compensation for not signing Nolan McLean last year.

With pundits saying it is a deeper draft, if Elias makes a trade for a pitcher, I hope he can get a comp pick as part of the package. Some folks have mentioned Flexen from Seattle (pick #30), Lopez from MIA (#35), or Gray from MIN (#34). I also wouldn't be against if the trade partner didn't want to part with the pick if the O's "traded up" instead-swapped picks.

Someway/somehow Elias is getting a comp pick from someone. We got the Marlins to bite on Sulser/Scott last year. I’d say Akin/Tate is a similar package. Or if we pull or a trade for Lopez or Bauer we will likely be asking for their comp pick back. That would give us 6 picks in the top 100 in a very deep draft. That helps us mitigate the difference between picking top 5 and 17. And you know we’re going all bats. Keep growing the bats. Last year’s draft as really good early returns. 
 

Which NCAA bat will take underslot at 17?  Smith, Hurley?  We could make some real noise with our picks in the 53-100 range. Keep the bat pipeline going  

 

 

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

On 1/4/2023 at 12:16 PM, Tony-OH said:

I would love to see the organization pull an Angles and draft all arms next year. I doubt it would happen but the organization could use an influx of good arms.

Didn’t we end up with 5 of those arms they drafted. Bradish has been good, Peek and Brnovich TJ. Stallings flamed out. Pinto is fringey at best. 

[SpOkane]

Going off the Pipeline list, these are 6 names that seem like Elias picks to me in the first round: Matt Shaw (20), Travis Honeyman (22), Jack Hurley (37), Colt Emerson (45), Ryan Lasko (47), Eric Bitonti (57).

Top Baseball Draft Prospects (mlb.com)

Keep in mind that the Pipeline list will change, possibly dramatically, by April as Holliday was in the 60s on their first 2022 prospect draft list.

If I had to choose one name from this six pack, I would bet on the one labeled Hurley even though Colt (45) would be tempting.