MLB Pipeline's Top 100 2023 Draft Prospects

[Frobby]

The most interesting thing about McDaniels’ report is that Elias was out scouting Eldridge.  So much for him stepping back!

[Jammer7]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

The most interesting thing about McDaniels’ report is that Elias was out scouting Eldridge.  So much for him stepping back!

I saw that Elias was spotted scouting Nimmala. I hope he has been in on Eldridge, though. He can go see these guys some and still take a step back from where his involvement had been. Maybe it was a baby step…? lol 

[Sports Guy]

So besides just getting the best players you can, how do you want to see the Os pursue this draft?

I believe that this draft is completely different from any draft they have done so far (and not just because of where they pick/bonus pool money), so it will be interesting to see if they change up strategies.

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So besides just getting the best players you can, how do you want to see the Os pursue this draft?

I believe that this draft is completely different from any draft they have done so far (and not just because of where they pick/bonus pool money), so it will be interesting to see if they change up strategies.

Absolutely different. What do I want? I would love to see them be aggressive with a high schooler, like Eldridge, Aidan Miller, Charles Soto, Thomas White or Colin Houck. Maybe Noble Meyer slips to us. I doubt they go with a HS arm here, though I think they could take a gamble now that they are stocked and can afford to have this prospect take time. 

They could go a college bat like Shaw from Maryland, or maybe a RHP Waldrup from Florida, and that would be safe. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Absolutely different. What do I want? I would love to see them be aggressive with a high schooler, like Eldridge, Aidan Miller, Charles Soto, Thomas White or Colin Houck. Maybe Noble Meyer slips to us. I doubt they go with a HS arm here, though I think they could take a gamble now that they are stocked and can afford to have this prospect take time. 

They could go a college bat like Shaw from Maryland, or maybe a RHP Waldrup from Florida, and that would be safe. 

In no way am I saying it would be a bad pick to take a college guy but I honestly would be surprised if they went the college route.

I haven’t paid hardly any attention to this draft but I think I read that there are a lot of HS bats that should go R1.

What will be interesting to me, and this is a potential strategy change, is if they go overslot in R1.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

In no way am I saying it would be a bad pick to take a college guy but I honestly would be surprised if they went the college route.

I haven’t paid hardly any attention to this draft but I think I read that there are a lot of HS bats that should go R1.

What will be interesting to me, and this is a potential strategy change, is if they go overslot in R1.

They may have to go over some for a few of these guys. It would be tough to go under in the middle picks, but I suppose they could. And I would hate it. 

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

They may have to go over some for a few of these guys. It would be tough to go under in the middle picks, but I suppose they could. And I would hate it. 

The only thing I don’t really want to see happen is some underslot pick to use the money later.

I really do hate that strategy if you are taking the lesser talent, which I think they have done in the past. (Although this would be different because they didn’t tank to get this pick)

I think it’s easier to do it at the top of the draft though because these guys aren’t turning down the money, so you can take Holliday and pay him 700k under slot because he’s not walking away from 8ishM. 
 

But at this part of the draft, they could potentially walk away from the money. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The only thing I don’t really want to see happen is some underslot pick to use the money later.

 

I'm fine with the practice of picking a college senior or two in the top 10 rounds and giving him 10K to give you some freedom to sign the other guys.  I don't want to see it in the first round.

[Frobby]

My guess is that when the O’s no. 17 pick comes up, there will be somebody there who was on the top 10 on their board, and they will take that player.   I’d be thrilled if it was a pitcher.   I won’t be surprised to see them take a HS hitter, since there won’t be many openings in the O’s lineup in the next 3-4 years, so they can afford to take someone who takes a bit longer to develop.  I doubt they’d go with a HS pitcher.  

[Belkster]

On 5/24/2023 at 8:12 PM, Sports Guy said:

Keith Laws first mock draft:

 

17. Baltimore Orioles – Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison High (Vienna, Va.)

Eldridge is an exit velocity darling but also a great athlete with a plus arm, and the Orioles have gone after those exit velo guys with high picks in recent years. With Jackson Holliday doing what he’s doing in High A, I would have to think the Orioles would be very willing to go back to the high school ranks.

 

https://theathletic.com/4539593/2023/05/24/mlb-mock-draft-dylan-crews-pirates/?source=user_shared_article_here

Good review, thank you. Crews deserves the top spot on this list. Eldridge looks very good and it would be a good draft pick, I think!

[Belkster]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My guess is that when the O’s no. 17 pick comes up, there will be somebody there who was on the top 10 on their board, and they will take that player.   I’d be thrilled if it was a pitcher.   I won’t be surprised to see them take a HS hitter, since there won’t be many openings in the O’s lineup in the next 3-4 years, so they can afford to take someone who takes a bit longer to develop.  I doubt they’d go with a HS pitcher.  

Unless a good pitcher will be taken by someone else

[RZNJ]

Time has proven with both Kjerstad and Cowser that the Orioles did not take some "lesser talent" just to save money unless you think they are the luckiest organization of all time.   

I expect them to take the top guy on their board at #17.  My best guess is Brayden Taylor at this point but Nimmala would be interesting if he was still there.  

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Time has proven with both Kjerstad and Cowser that the Orioles did not take some "lesser talent" just to save money unless you think they are the luckiest organization of all time.   

I expect them to take the top guy on their board at #17.  My best guess is Brayden Taylor at this point but Nimmala would be interesting if he was still there.  

I did not disagree with Kjerstad and Cowser, and said so after their selections and some time to process it. I initially wanted other players there, but when their draft was done I saw what they did and liked it. The under slot plan there was good, because the slot provided much more room to work with. Not the same thing this year at #17. It was a smart play each time, despite the fan backlash.

Elias was in a much different position then, IMO, not only draft-capital-wise, but organizationally. They are obviously well-stocked with very good depth at the higher minors. They have shown they can draft and develop young high-end position players in Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo, but I am not too sure how much credit they deserve for the development of Jackson Holliday yet. He seems to have been extremely polished before he got here.

Their development of young pitchers is a big question mark to me. We don’t have much to go on as far as kids they have drafted, except the Carter Baumler kid, and he has struggled to be able to stay on the mound. Do we give the Elias regime credit for the development of Grayson and DL? I think so, but are we as confident they can develop pitching as well as position players? Does any organization develop a high number of high school pitchers to be MLB contributors? I am struggling to think of any. Maybe St. Louis or LA Dodgers, but does anyone really do that well anymore? Internationally is very different, and it’s obviously the Astros have made a living in that realm recently.

This draft has a lot of higher end HS guys that should be available at #17. These are the guys that could be top 5 picks when they get drafted again in three years. They can take them now and have them ready for MLB sooner, and they cost less. They are riskier, absolutely. A college bat is safer, and not necessary less-talented. The Brayden Taylor kid looks interesting from what I have read, but I have not seen him at all.

I have learned to trust the draft process under Elias and crew. They have proven to be excellent in their evaluations and development. I think they know themselves very well and play to their organizational strengths. It will be interesting to see who they take in this situation. My hope for a high end high school talent is mostly because I am a fan of player development. I like the successful transition of talented young players from high school star to MLB all star for Baltimore. Holliday is looking to be a great story to me. Henderson seems to be as well. There is a lot of failure along the way for players and organizations, but when they find the right ones who are equipped with the fortitude to see it through its a great story.

I’m gonna name-drop for a second. Back in 2013 Spring Training with the Nationals, Bryce Harper told my son and I once that he was just lucky to be a major leaguer. He said that there was very talented players all along the way who never make it. He kept saying how lucky he was. To be honest, I thought he was being disingenuous in his comments to my son and I, at the time. I thought he was falsely modest to teach my son about how hard it is. I mean, he was a star at 16 years old. But I have learned that he really felt that way, and he was wise to see it that way. So many things can go wrong. When they actually make it big, it’s been a hard road, and they were lucky along the way as well. So many can’t miss guys actually miss. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

My guess is that when the O’s no. 17 pick comes up, there will be somebody there who was on the top 10 on their board, and they will take that player.   I’d be thrilled if it was a pitcher.   I won’t be surprised to see them take a HS hitter, since there won’t be many openings in the O’s lineup in the next 3-4 years, so they can afford to take someone who takes a bit longer to develop.  I doubt they’d go with a HS pitcher.  

Elias has used premium draft resources twice on pitchers and been burned both times. Carter Baumler and Nolan McLean. 
 

With where we pick, it seems like HS bat would be the best value pick. Soto does sound crazy impressive though. 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias has used premium draft resources twice on pitchers and been burned both times. Carter Baumler and Nolan McLean. 
 

With where we pick, it seems like HS bat would be the best value pick. Soto does sound crazy impressive though. 

They all sound crazy impressive at this time.