Trade for Number 1

[Just Regular]

German Marquez has 2/31 left on his deal.    He pitches game 1 for his team.     I can't really think of any big precedents of COL selling present Wins though, no matter how much the other 29 Clubs are watching them like...I don't get it.

Not a #1 on a league wide scale and in the drama Dusty and Crane did back him up by vetoing Click's trade, by still wonder if Jose Urquidy relationship with HOU damaged by the Willson Contreras trade leak.     There there's also the dynamics where he may be their 6th best option and would be in the mix for our 1st.

[HakunaSakata]

43 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

So potential for potential? I’m not sure that really does much for us for the 2023 season. But I actually like it. At this point given our lack of roster improvement and given the improvements of our competition for the playoffs, there’s really no need to make a dumb move out of desperation for next year. I’m my opinion the ship has sailed for next year.

If the Orioles' scouts are good at their job, then it won't be a dumb move. Also, I think some of our offensive prospects are good enough to land a MLB ready pitching prospect or young MLB pitcher. 

[HakunaSakata]

46 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Not the be all, end all, but the BTV algorithm as an open source guesses BAL bats and MIA arms like:

Adley = Alcantara

Gunnar = Eury Perez

Mullins = Pablo Lopez or Trevor Rogers

Cowser = Luzardo

Mountcastle = Meyer

Kim Ng needs to consider Sandy Alcantara's buy-in the same as Elias does Adley Rutschman's.    In both cases, its the 9-figure negotiation that will say much about whether either fanbase will end up with another Mussina like scenario.

How about E. Cabrera? Who does he match-up with on our side based on BTV? 

I personally wouldn't be interested in Perez (a bit overhyped and Meyer (injured) at that price, but Mullins / Lopez or Cowser / Luzardo is intriguing. 

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

You keep beating the Martin Perez drum, but up until last season he has historically been awful. I'm sure what you see in him and I'm not sure he's even better than Kyle Gibson. He's definitely not #1 or someone I would try to buy high on, which is what you'd have to do after last season. 

Hm, not sure where you got that. Perez is one possibility. Definitely not my top choice and not an ace. He looked good when he pitched against us. If he is still under 3.00 ERA in July that would be a pretty solid sample of recent success. Moreover, he would be cheap and available, unlike most (all?) of the other names on the list. I'd rather have Woodruff, Gallen, Singer etc but those guys will cost more.

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, Ripken said:

If they actually want to compete this year, which they haven't shown so far this off season, they'll have to trade for a good arm.  It would only be for the remainder of that guy's current contract though since the suck ownership here only wants to pocket money.  Elias never should have ignored pitching in the draft.

Completely disagree. The reason we have the best farm system in baseball is specifically because Elias targeted hitters in the early rounds of all of his drafts, and he and his staff have done a great job scouting and developing a lot of those hitters. Pitching prospects are more volatile, less projectible, and far more injury prone for significant stretches.

[Just Regular]

20 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

How about E. Cabrera? Who does he match-up with on our side based on BTV? 

Westburg or Ortiz.

[HakunaSakata]

23 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Westburg or Ortiz.

Edward Cabrera is the Marlin's pitcher I want then. Cheaper  and younger than Luzardo and probably has the same amount of upside.  Go get him Mike Elias!

[Bemorewins]

54 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If the Orioles' scouts are good at their job, then it won't be a dumb move. Also, I think some of our offensive prospects are good enough to land a MLB ready pitching prospect or young MLB pitcher. 

I don’t disagree about our prospect being valued enough to land big pieces. I just think that contending next year is a long shot at this point. So that’s why a Pablo Lopez or even one of the Milwaukee pitchers doesn’t really make much sense at this point. 
 

Even with one of them, we are by no means better than the Yanks, Blue Jays, Mariners, Astros and not even the Rays.

We might as well try a strategy that extends our best contending teams with this group into the future. 
 

Having said that I have NEVER seen the Orioles operate proactively like this, so it probably won’t happen.

[MarCakes21]

19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t disagree about our prospect being valued enough to land big pieces. I just think that contending next year is a long shot at this point. So that’s why a Pablo Lopez or even one of the Milwaukee pitchers doesn’t really make much sense at this point. 
 

Even with one of them, we are by no means better than the Yanks, Blue Jays, Mariners, Astros and not even the Rays.

We might as well try a strategy that extends our best contending teams with this group into the future. 
 

Having said that I have NEVER seen the Orioles operate proactively like this, so it probably won’t happen.

This is a fair question.  Do we boost the value of guys like Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz by leaving them all down this year?  I assume they can all hurt their stock, but it really puts them beating down the door and potential top 25 vs. knocking and top 100.

So does a year from now get us more value in a trade?

[Bemorewins]

I think that would be a mistake for Ortiz. He will be 25 next year. If you keep him down until he is 26, will he even be considered a prospect then? 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I think that would be a mistake for Ortiz. He will be 25 next year. If you keep him down until he is 26, will he even be considered a prospect then? 

I don’t see Ortiz being down all year.  He’s already on the 40-man roster.   It’s just a matter of whether he’s up in June or September.   That may depend more on Mateo’s performance than his own.  

[interloper]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They aren’t going to do this.  

Sadly I agree. If they ever do, it will be at the deadline or next off-season.

I think we have to start coming to terms with the fact that this off-season is going to be:

-Replacements for Lyles, Odor, and Chirinos

-Another veteran SP on a 1-2 yr deal (Hill, Wacha, etc)

-Rule 5 pick

Edited December 18, 2022 by interloper

[owknows]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

Sadly I agree. If they ever do, it will be at the deadline or next off-season.

I think we have to start coming to terms with the fact that this off-season is going to be:

-Replacements for Lyles, Odor, and Chirinos

-Another veteran SP on a 1-2 yr deal (Hill, Wacha, etc)

-Rule 5 pick

Sounds kinda like what we were talking about a couple weeks ago.

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see Ortiz being down all year.  He’s already on the 40-man roster.   It’s just a matter of whether he’s up in June or September.   That may depend more on Mateo’s performance than his own.  

Theyve got to offload guys then for pitching.  We just added Frazier who we know is going to get 400+ ABs.  So how do you package what's available for a TOR.

[bpilktree]

Elias has been great at finding guys that haven’t lived up to there hype but have improved here.  I don’t think they will go for a guy that is a number 1 starter now but a guy they think they can make a few changes and that will turn that potential into an ace.   Gerrit Cole was not a number 1 starter type when the Astros traded for him.  He was coming off a 12-12 season era 4.26 Fip of 4.08 Whip 1.28 giving up a hit an inning and striking out less then 1 an inning.  He came to Houston and the found way to dig into that potential he had coming up in minors.  
 
Who are the guys they think have been good major league pitchers but haven’t made that next step to being top of the rotation guys. That is who I think they will look to get in a trade if they get a starter.  That would be guys like Luzardo, Mike Soroko, Michael Kopech, Bradley Singer, Luis Garcia, Cristina Javier, Dustin May.