Mateo Trade Potential

[Moose Milligan]

39 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I get that Mateo has considerable defensive value, but I'm curious why literally no other contending team seems content to play a SS who hits this poorly going into the season? My point about Mateo is that we live in an era where even the great defensive-minded players hit to some degree (i.e., the bar has been raised). I stand by my comment that he wouldn't be an everyday player on a good team. Not in the modern era when you typically don't have to sacrifice offense as often for good defense. 

Do they hit this poorly but field this well?

You seem to be missing the WAR argument here.  Mateo, despite his offensive shortcomings does provide positive value to the team.  And by a decent amount.  

You can stand by your comment all you want but Mateo was an every day player on a good team last year.  

29 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I can sort of see this logic on a stacked offensive team. The Orioles are not a stacked offense team. They need every batter, including their SS, to make some sort of contribution in order to contend.  Even moore so this year than last year since literally every other team in the AL East has made an effort to improve via free agency or through trades. 

No, they don't.  Again, you're failing to understand that you can make contributions and not hit particularly well.

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

I don't understand the math but I get the concept: You can't lose if you don't give up any runs.

But yes, the difference is small enough that isn't all that important.

Say you are a .500 team in a league average 700 run environment.

The pitcher or fielder who saves you 25 runs gives your team a 700-675 RS/RA.     The hitter who adds 25 makes it 725-700.

Team 1 has the little bit better Pythagorean winning percentage expectation.

[HakunaSakata]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do they hit this poorly but field this well?

You seem to be missing the WAR argument here.  Mateo, despite his offensive shortcomings does provide positive value to the team.  And by a decent amount.  

You can stand by your comment all you want but Mateo was an every day player on a good team last year.  

No, they don't.  Again, you're failing to understand that you can make contributions and not hit particularly well.

 

I included a link to the top fielding SS' in 2022 in my original comment. Going into the 2023, I couldn't find a great fielding/poor hitting SS, other than Mateo, who is penciled in as the starter for this season. My question is, if Mateo is so valuable then why are no other MLB teams (except the one's tanking) willingly taking a defensive approach to SS going into the 2023 season. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d

Edited January 26, 2023 by HakunaSakata

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He has to establish his value.  If he puts up another 3 WAR next year his value will go up significantly.  It's not dissimilar to Mullins.  Mullins value was up in 2022 vs 2021, even though his year wasn't as good, because he had established a baseline that teams were comfortable with.  Mateo, rightly, has yet to do that.

I’m not disagreeing with you..It’s just an interesting thought. He’s really valuable but no one values him (although we have no idea if that’s true and we can argue value).

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Say you are a .500 team in a league average 700 run environment.

The pitcher or fielder who saves you 25 runs gives your team a 700-675 RS/RA.     The hitter who adds 25 makes it 725-700.

Team 1 has the little bit better Pythagorean winning percentage expectation.

Yes, this is the "math" aspect of it.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not disagreeing with you..It’s just an interesting thought. He’s really valuable but no one values him (although we have no idea if that’s true and we can argue value).

I think the only thing you can say for sure is that Elias has so far valued him more than other teams were willing to offer for him.  Now what that means exactly is open to endless debate.

[Daddy-O's]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Say you are a .500 team in a league average 700 run environment.

The pitcher or fielder who saves you 25 runs gives your team a 700-675 RS/RA.     The hitter who adds 25 makes it 725-700.

Team 1 has the little bit better Pythagorean winning percentage expectation.

Why would this be either or?  Couldn't someone save runs and add runs, it's really the total of both outcomes that should be compared

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

I think the only thing you can say for sure is that Elias has so far valued him more than other teams were willing to offer for him.  Now what that means exactly is open to endless debate.

Yea it would be interesting to know if they have tried.  Hakuna is right, Rojas does represent a comp for him on some level. I think Mateo should be worth more because of his speed, age and service time.

But the guy the Marlins got is essentially what they traded and what Mateo is..toolsy guy known for defense but questionable bat. Interesting prospect but already 24.

Is that worth trading Mateo for?  I don’t think so but could Mateo be a piece in a larger trade? That’s where I think his value would be.

[Just Regular]

Rojas and Mateo had similar overall production, but I think there's a big contrast in who they are going forward.

Mateo is young and just got to play his first full year at his best position, and with the support of Orioles player development.

Rojas is old, and has a well-established track record.    His physical talent is past peak, and his skill acquisition at competing in the Show is mature.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Are the Red Sox a contender?  Wasn't it you that started a thread about their addition of Adalberto Mondesi as their starting SS?  Doesn't Mondesi have virtually the same career OPS+ as Mateo?

As someone else pointed out, Mondesi was plan B after the sudden offseason surgery required in January by Trevor Story took them by surprise.   Also, it's worth noting that the Red Sox fan base is extremely upset with the way their offseason has gone.   Overpaying for the Japanese outfielder, losing Bogaerts, not addressing team needs in a significant way.   When they had one of those outdoor NHL games at Fenway Park around New Year's Day and the Red Sox owner came out to speak, he was vehemently booed.   That was before the Mondesi trade, but I'm willing to bet that Red Sox nation is at best lukewarm about that deal.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

As someone else pointed out, Mondesi was plan B after the sudden offseason surgery required in January by Trevor Story took them by surprise.   Also, it's worth noting that the Red Sox fan base is extremely upset with the way their offseason has gone.   Overpaying for the Japanese outfielder, losing Bogaerts, not addressing team needs in a significant way.   When they had one of those outdoor NHL games at Fenway Park around New Year's Day and the Red Sox owner came out to speak, he was vehemently booed.   That was before the Mondesi trade, but I'm willing to bet that Red Sox nation is at best lukewarm about that deal.

Yes, I'm well aware that Red Sox fans are insufferable douches.  That doesn't change the fact that a contending team is going into the season with a bat as poor as Mateo's penciled in to an everyday spot.  The Red Sox are no outlier.  I could surely find more examples.

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Yes, I'm well aware that Red Sox fans are insufferable douches.  That doesn't change the fact that a contending team is going into the season with a bat as poor as Mateo's penciled in to an everyday spot.  The Red Sox are no outlier.  I could surely find more examples.

I don't disagree with you, I'm fine with Mateo too at least until some of our prospects force the issue.   But I'm just saying that using Boston as an example might not be the best.   They were a last place team last year and have not done much to improve this year.

[Moose Milligan]

54 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I included a link to the top fielding SS' in 2022 in my original comment. Going into the 2023, I couldn't find a great fielding/poor hitting SS, other than Mateo, who is penciled in as the starter for this season. My question is, if Mateo is so valuable then why are no other MLB teams (except the one's tanking) willingly taking a defensive approach to SS going into the 2023 season. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d

To answer your question, we don't know if Mateo is a trade target for anyone or not.  Maybe Elias is willing to deal him, maybe he isn't.  Maybe he hasn't been approached with anything he likes.  Who knows?

But again, you don't have to be a great hitter (even a good one) to provide value, especially at SS.  You're an Orioles fan, I shouldn't have to explain this to you since you know about Mark Belanger (as referenced earlier).

[sportsfan8703]

I bumped this thread for a reason. The reason being…

Why does Mateo have to be locked in at SS when we have Gunnar?

Why does Mateo belong in the starting 9 if we are healthy?  If Mateo isn’t Mr. Tim Beckham there for a few weeks, then his OPS is closer to .500 than .600. 

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I bumped this thread for a reason. The reason being…

Why does Mateo have to be locked in at SS when we have Gunnar?

Why does Mateo belong in the starting 9 if we are healthy?  If Mateo isn’t Mr. Tim Beckham there for a few weeks, then his OPS is closer to .500 than .600. 

I think Elias is buying his last few months of player development time before making the decision. He could:

1. Trade now, get very little back.
2. See how the start goes, trade Mateo (or someone else if Mateo is better) for a better return.

Some team will need a SS before July 31.