Mateo Trade Potential

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We have at least 2 viable candidates to replace him at SS right now..for less money.

He’s not more valuable to us than any other team. That’s such a worn out cliche.

Is this a better way to put it?  He's not as valuable to other teams as OH'ers would like him to be......is that a fair statement?  If not, why aren't teams knocking our door down with an offer we can't refuse?  And, if they are, do we really believe that Elias is dumb enough to not pull the trigger on a trade that would upgrade weaker areas of our system, like pitching.

Mateo is just not as high in demand as many would hope. - and No, I don't "know" that - but you do the math.....

PS - How many articles are there on MLBTR talking about teams that need shortstops??  Not many.  And LA has options that won't cost them an upper level minor league arm.  Sorry.  I'm just being realistic....you know, without my orange colored lenses.

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

And where does Urias play? If Mateo is not traded, Urias should be. As long as we have Frazier, one of these guys is getting squeezed. If we believe they are full time MLB level players, they should have more value to another team than they do to us. I agree it is hard in reality for trades to come together, which is why they are relatively rare, and you are probably right that we are overrating these guys. We are probably not getting a top pitching prospect without including substantially more. Still, can we agree this is something Elias should be actively exploring? 

 

I can agree to the underlined statement, but when you are actively exploring how to reduce your very deep depth chart, you're not the one with the leverage, therefore, I don't expect returns that would excite anyone around here.  To answer your first question, Urias will play 2nd when Frazier isn't, and will play third when Mateo sits and Gunnar moves to short.  Between Mateo and Urias, I'd be looking to move the guy who nets me the best return.  Now, that's another debate.....

I honestly don't know what other teams would take either Mateo or Urias and have them be an everyday player in their lineup.  Are there teams (not named the Dodgers) that have this as an overwhelming need, where any of these two would be enough of an upgrade over who they already have?

[emmett16]

13 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I mean the Dodgers, one of the best run organizations in baseball, felt confident enough to make him their starting 2B this season so that's enough of an endorsement for me. It also seems a bit outrageous to suggest that a 23 year old top 40 prospect doesn't have more long term value potential than a 27 year old career .225 hitter. I don't think many teams (including the Dodgers) would view Mateo as anything more than a band-aid solution at SS. 

It also seems outrageous to me that a 23 y/o who hasn't had a single AB in MLB is going to come up and hit enough to 'more than make-up for any drop off in defense'.  A quick search would find that Mateo out OPS'd Ortiz @ same age in the minors.  What makes you think Ortiz will come up hit better than Mateo?

Edited March 2, 2023 by emmett16

[Sanity Check]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

It also seems outrageous to me that a 23 y/o who hasn't had a single AB in MLB is going to come up and hit enough to 'more than make-up for any drop off in defense'.  A quick search would find that Mateo out OPS'd Ortiz @ same age in AAA.  What makes you think Ortiz will come up hit better than Mateo?

How dare you bring FACTS into this.  

I also loved the assumption that Ortiz would make up for a drop off in defense with his hitting.  It's possible, yes, but we don't know that.

 

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It also seems outrageous to me that a 23 y/o who hasn't had a single AB in MLB is going to come up and hit enough to 'more than make-up for any drop off in defense'.  A quick search would find that Mateo out OPS'd Ortiz @ same age in AAA.  What makes you think Ortiz will come up hit better than Mateo?

Mostly the strikeouts. I just don't think there's a path for Mateo to continued to success with his strike out rate / plate discipline. Honestly though I'd be fine with trading either one of them. Mateo just feels like a better sell high candidate after last season. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It also seems outrageous to me that a 23 y/o who hasn't had a single AB in MLB is going to come up and hit enough to 'more than make-up for any drop off in defense'.  A quick search would find that Mateo out OPS'd Ortiz @ same age in AAA.  What makes you think Ortiz will come up hit better than Mateo?

Check again.  Mateo had a better AA OPS but not better in AAA.   Of course, we are hoping the 1.000 OPS Ortiz put up in July and August, which is much higher than Mateo, is more indicative than his overall AA OPS.  As for AAA, Ortiz only has one month there but that .967 OPS looks nice.

Ortiz had a ML AB against Bednar, the Pirates closer yesterday.   Fouled off some tough pitches.  Had some great takes.  Drove the CF to the warning track.  Those type of AB’s are almost non existent with Mateo.  
 

Ortiz is the better hitter.  There’s little doubt in my mind.  The question is can Mateo consistently have ML at bats.  If he can, he’s a very desirable player.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Is this a better way to put it?  He's not as valuable to other teams as OH'ers would like him to be......is that a fair statement?  If not, why aren't teams knocking our door down with an offer we can't refuse?  And, if they are, do we really believe that Elias is dumb enough to not pull the trigger on a trade that would upgrade weaker areas of our system, like pitching.

Mateo is just not as high in demand as many would hope. - and No, I don't "know" that - but you do the math.....

PS - How many articles are there on MLBTR talking about teams that need shortstops??  Not many.  And LA has options that won't cost them an upper level minor league arm.  Sorry.  I'm just being realistic....you know, without my orange colored lenses.

Well I don’t know how all hangouters are valuing him and what fans think is really irrelevant anyway.

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It also seems outrageous to me that a 23 y/o who hasn't had a single AB in MLB is going to come up and hit enough to 'more than make-up for any drop off in defense'.  A quick search would find that Mateo out OPS'd Ortiz @ same age in AAA.  What makes you think Ortiz will come up hit better than Mateo?

In the PCL.  Ortiz' K% makes me think he'll hit better than Mateo.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It also seems outrageous to me that a 23 y/o who hasn't had a single AB in MLB is going to come up and hit enough to 'more than make-up for any drop off in defense'.  A quick search would find that Mateo out OPS'd Ortiz @ same age in AAA.  What makes you think Ortiz will come up hit better than Mateo?

Why are you mentioning Ortiz’s age as if it’s a negative?

[spleen1015]

For me, I thnk we know that Mateo is not the answer for the future. So move on. I think we're better every day with Gunnar at SS and Ramon at 3B, not Gunnar at 3B, Mateo at SS and Ramon getting ABs when Frazier or Mateo are on the bench or splits or whatever.

[btdart20]

44 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I completely understand that, but it doesn't make Mateo any more valuable in a trade to another team as many would make him out to be.  It just means we have a lot of shortstops.  

Do you believe that, because we have so many shortstops, that somehow Mateo's value has increased?  Sometimes, when a team has a roster crunch at a certain position, you almost have to give some guys away.  This may be one of them eventually.  

Agreed.  I'm willing to take a haircut on Mateo and trading from the top of the deck.  But that means he won't net us much more than 10-15 range prospect a few steps away instead of an SP many are hoping for in 2023.  LAD fits the mold of a deep system willing to shop from, but he won't bring Stone or that ilk.

[Aristotelian]

31 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I can agree to the underlined statement, but when you are actively exploring how to reduce your very deep depth chart, you're not the one with the leverage, therefore, I don't expect returns that would excite anyone around here.  To answer your first question, Urias will play 2nd when Frazier isn't, and will play third when Mateo sits and Gunnar moves to short.  Between Mateo and Urias, I'd be looking to move the guy who nets me the best return.  Now, that's another debate.....

I honestly don't know what other teams would take either Mateo or Urias and have them be an everyday player in their lineup.  Are there teams (not named the Dodgers) that have this as an overwhelming need, where any of these two would be enough of an upgrade over who they already have?

That is fair. I agree the return for Mateo is likely more of a role player than a top 100 prospect unless we include additional pieces. For what it's worth, Trade Simulator has Urias significantly higher than Mateo. I would be on board with trading Urias if we got better return because I really like Mateo's value as a role player, backing up 2B and SS, pinch runner in a tie game, defensive replacement etc. 

[NCRaven]

There is nothing in Mateo's batted ball profile that would be predictive of an improvement in 2023 over 2022. 

Average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, whiff rate, and chase rate were all in the bottom third of the league and all but barrel rate (31%) were in the bottom 20% of the league.  I don't see any team in baseball trading a significant piece for Mateo as most won't see him as an everyday player.

If the Orioles are going to trade an infielder, I think that conversation would have to start with Urias or one of the AAA prospects.

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

For me, I thnk we know that Mateo is not the answer for the future. So move on. I think we're better every day with Gunnar at SS and Ramon at 3B, not Gunnar at 3B, Mateo at SS and Ramon getting ABs when Frazier or Mateo are on the bench or splits or whatever.

I'd say both are equal. Urias has holes in his offense also, and has had declining numbers each of the last two season. His K rate isn't that much better than Mateo's. He has a bit more pop, but does not have the speed tool to be a threat on the bases.

Both of them have limited major league AB's and could go either way over the next 2-3 years.

I think realistically, it is probably better to get Gunnar acclimated to being a full time 3B now, because the way the organization looks, that is where he would end up soon enough anyway.

[Just Regular]

Who says no to Evan Phillips for Jorge Mateo?

This could carry to tax day too - Miguel Rojas is ancient by SS standards to do the Ripken things.     Heavens forbid his muscles get tired or he tweaks something two weeks in.

Ibid Jose Iglesias at the young man's job.