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Mateo Trade Potential


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2 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

When he is moved, many of you will be unhappy with the return.

 

2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I just don't believe they would get 2 top 10 guys as someone suggested. 

I think it's worth pointing out that we're talking about the Dodgers system here. Today's top 10 prospects were yesterday's top 50 org prospects that nobody ever heard of. 

There's absolutely enough depth of talent to make a trade that's good for both teams, even if us message board guys never heard of them and they're not top 20 guys for the Dodgers.

For example, Kyle Bradish was #17 on last year's OH top 20. Joey Ortiz was #20. Felix Bautista was #22. Hernaiz was #42. The key to any trade is finding those guys from their system.

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8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Who says no to Evan Phillips for Jorge Mateo?

This could carry to tax day too - Miguel Rojas is ancient by SS standards to do the Ripken things.     Heavens forbid his muscles get tired or he tweaks something two weeks in.

Ibid Jose Iglesias at the young man's job.

Thats what I was thinking too. Why are the Dodgers relying on this guy to be the everyday SS, when a decent option is available? Have to trade for him...but if you're trying to win today, get it done.  

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46 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It also seems outrageous to me that a 23 y/o who hasn't had a single AB in MLB is going to come up and hit enough to 'more than make-up for any drop off in defense'.  A quick search would find that Mateo out OPS'd Ortiz @ same age in AAA.  What makes you think Ortiz will come up hit better than Mateo?

Here’s how I’d put it.   I think eventually Ortiz will be a better hitter than Mateo was last year.  But it might not be this season, considering that Ortiz had only a brief exposure to AAA last year.   And, it’s entirely possible that Mateo will hit better this year than last year.   So, to begin the year, I expect the O’s to go with the incumbent.  If a few months go by, Ortiz is raking in AAA, and Mateo is continuing to struggle mightily at the plate, they’ll probably make a change.   Westburg is also in the midseason mix, for sure, but probably not as the regular SS.  More likely Gunnar would move to SS and Westburg would play 2B/3B with an occasional start at SS when Gunnar needs a day off.  

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5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Joey Ortiz is 24, he will be 25 in 4 months.  

Correct.  Is there a point though?

We’re talking about a player drafted at 20/21 who didn’t show any offense in 2019.  Remade himself in 2020 but with no minor league season.  Off to a good start in 2021 and tears his labrum.  Comes back last year and finishes in AAA and on many top 100 lists.  It would be tough for any prospect to ascend through the minors faster than he did, considering the circumstances.   He, essentially, has the same amount of minor league game reps as Cowser, who is 23.

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok..this doesn’t answer the question though.

Why do you assume it was said as a negative? 
 

I stated his age.  Mateo OPSd .832 at Las Vegas in 2019 when he was 24.  Ortiz has a hand full of ABs in AAA. 
 

I too *think he will be a better hitter.  To suggest a player who has never played MLB is going to significantly outhit the incumbent right out of the gate seems like stretch.  

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6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Why do you assume it was said as a negative? 
 

I stated his age.  Mateo OPSd .832 at Las Vegas in 2019 when he was 24.  Ortiz has a hand full of ABs in AAA. 
 

I too *think he will be a better hitter.  To suggest a player who has never played MLB is going to significantly outhit the incumbent right out of the gate seems like stretch.  

I like Mateo but an .832 OPS in Las Vegas is like .723 in Norfolk.   That was 6th on the team for players with over 400 PA.   As for outhitting Mateo, right now.  If the bar is a .267 OBP and .646 OPS, I’m taking that bet.

Edited by RZNJ
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51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Check again.  Mateo had a better AA OPS but not better in AAA.   Of course, we are hoping the 1.000 OPS Ortiz put up in July and August, which is much higher than Mateo, is more indicative than his overall AA OPS.  As for AAA, Ortiz only has one month there but that .967 OPS looks nice.

Ortiz had a ML AB against Bednar, the Pirates closer yesterday.   Fouled off some tough pitches.  Had some great takes.  Drove the CF to the warning track.  Those type of AB’s are almost non existent with Mateo.  
 

Ortiz is the better hitter.  There’s little doubt in my mind.  The question is can Mateo consistently have ML at bats.  If he can, he’s a very desirable player.

I see my goof.  Need to not look at bbref on my phone.  I thought Ortiz .826 2022 OPS was his AAA.  I will edit. 

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I like Mateo but an .832 OPS in Las Vegas is like .723 in Norfolk.   That was 6th on the team for players with over 400 PA.   

I don’t like Mateo much, but think he will put up similar #s in his ABS700-1200 than Ortiz will in 0-500.  I could very likely be wrong.  I’d be shocked if Ortiz significantly outhit him. 

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1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I don’t like Mateo much, but think he will put up similar #s in his ABS700-1200 than Ortiz will in 0-500.  I could very likely be wrong.  I’d be shocked if Ortiz significantly outhit him. 

That’s the big question. What will Mateo do in his 700-1200 ML AB?  No one knows.  It looks like the Orioles want to find out but are hedging their bets.

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2 hours ago, spleen1015 said:

For me, I thnk we know that Mateo is not the answer for the future. So move on. I think we're better every day with Gunnar at SS and Ramon at 3B, not Gunnar at 3B, Mateo at SS and Ramon getting ABs when Frazier or Mateo are on the bench or splits or whatever.

Isn't it awesome to be way smarter than the guys who actually evaluate talent and run the baseball operation?  I'm glad we have those guys, so emotion doesn't cloud goo decision-making.  I think there are many that would disagree with the notion that right now, Gunnar is the better defensive SS.  We all know about the hitting, but defense matters too, and apparently is very important to Elias and Hyde because, well, they're smart.

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1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

I'd say both are equal. Urias has holes in his offense also, and has had declining numbers each of the last two season. His K rate isn't that much better than Mateo's. He has a bit more pop, but does not have the speed tool to be a threat on the bases.

Both of them have limited major league AB's and could go either way over the next 2-3 years.

I think realistically, it is probably better to get Gunnar acclimated to being a full time 3B now, because the way the organization looks, that is where he would end up soon enough anyway.

Thank you.  The bolded part is SPOT ON.

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1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

I'd say both are equal. Urias has holes in his offense also, and has had declining numbers each of the last two season. His K rate isn't that much better than Mateo's. He has a bit more pop, but does not have the speed tool to be a threat on the bases.

Both of them have limited major league AB's and could go either way over the next 2-3 years.

I think realistically, it is probably better to get Gunnar acclimated to being a full time 3B now, because the way the organization looks, that is where he would end up soon enough anyway.

How could you possibly look at both of these pages and say Urias and Mateo are equal offensively?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-mateo-622761?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ramon-urias-602104?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

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1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I don’t like Mateo much, but think he will put up similar #s in his ABS700-1200 than Ortiz will in 0-500.  I could very likely be wrong.  I’d be shocked if Ortiz significantly outhit him. 

Look at their basebal savant pages that I posted in a prior reply. The underlying metrics certainly point to Ortiz being a much better hitter. 

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