Mateo Trade Potential

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

We don't.  It's an informed assumption.

See, I’d assume the opposite.  Not because he didn’t hit as well, but because 4 years of team control (one at the league minimum) is better than 3 (none at the league minimum).   I think that outweighs the “certainty factor.”   But, that’s just my assumption; I don’t really know. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

See, I’d assume the opposite.  Not because he didn’t hit as well, but because 4 years of team control (one at the league minimum) is better than 3 (none at the league minimum).   I think that outweighs the “certainty factor.”   But, that’s just my assumption; I don’t really know. 

You could be right.  I'm assuming too.  But two succesful seasons I think is quite different from one in terms of how a player is regarded.  IMO, of course.

[foxfield]

31 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

I think Mateo at shortstop is ideal for 2023 over bringing in somebody else for a variety of reasons:

1. Holliday is our future shortstop, maybe as soon as mid-2024.  So we don't need a long term contract on a shortstop.
2. Based on 1 above, no point in playing Henderson at short for a year and a half when it is likely that his future is at 3rd base with Holliday at shortstop.
3. DEFENSE.  His defense will result in less hits and more double plays which means more outs and less pitches for our pitchers.  His range does wonders for our pitching staff.
4. He and/or Urias will have value as utility guys when we have Westburg/Norby, Henderson and Holliday in the infield.  Of course, Ortiz and Westburg/Norby can fill the utility role by mid-2024, if not sooner.
5. Not sure he has great trade value.

That said, if we can get good value in a trade for Mateo and we won't lose anything defensively between Ortiz and Mateo, I'm all for trading him to get better starting pitcher.

I like Mateo holding on to the spot until Holliday is ready or until someone else moves him off.  If the Orioles line up can hit without relying on Mateo he is an excellent bridge to the future.

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s so good and so valuable yet he has no value. It’s an interesting thought process.

He is a priceless irreplaceable worthless piece.  But he's ours...sorta like Felix Pie, but better.

[theobird]

Mark Belanger says, “Hi”.

[forphase1]

37 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't understand the math but I get the concept: You can't lose if you don't give up any runs.

But yes, the difference is small enough that isn't all that important.

Yes, but you also can't win if you can't score any runs.  A team full of Mateos may save a ton of runs, but some balls will find gaps and some will go over the wall, even with the best defenders.  But that team will lose a TON of games as they would score little to no runs.  I get the logic of a defense first player like Mateo, but it makes less sense on a team constructed the way ours currently is.  Last year we just had too many holes in the lineup the last 1/2 of the season with Mateo, Odor, Mountcastle, Hays, etc all struggling with the bat.  Unfortunately it doesn't look like we addressed that this offseason as we are going with the same guys (Mountcastle, Hays, Mateo) or have signed marginal replacements that are likely blocking better hitting rookies (Frazier).  I'm actually more confident in our pitching to start the year than I am our ability to score runs.  Adley, Santander and Gunnar are not enough by themselves.   

[HakunaSakata]

55 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Preventing a run is the same as scoring a run.  

Mateo at SS is fine.  And when he has that two or three week stretch where he hits a little and we all wonder if he's turning into an offensive force that's a lot of fun, too.

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let’s use fWAR, which is less favorable to Mateo than rWAR.  By fWAR, Mateo was the 14th most valuable SS in baseball, at 2.8.  And, the 74th best position player in MLB.  So, Mateo is good enough to start for more than half the teams in the majors, despite his awful offense.   He was pretty valuable and is going to play until he plays worse or someone better comes along.  Either of those things could happen, but if Mateo plays exactly as he did last year, it will take someone very good to knock him off his perch.   
 

I get that Mateo has considerable defensive value, but I'm curious why literally no other contending team seems content to play a SS who hits this poorly going into the season? My point about Mateo is that we live in an era where even the great defensive-minded players hit to some degree (i.e., the bar has been raised). I stand by my comment that he wouldn't be an everyday player on a good team. Not in the modern era when you typically don't have to sacrifice offense as often for good defense. 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I get that Mateo has considerable defensive value, but I'm curious why literally no other contending team seems content to play a SS who hits this poorly going into the season? My point about Mateo is that we live in an era where even the great defensive-minded players hit to some degree (i.e., the bar has been raised). I stand by my comment that he wouldn't be an everyday player on a good team. Not in the modern era when you typically don't have to sacrifice offense as often for good defense. 

Are the Red Sox a contender?  Wasn't it you that started a thread about their addition of Adalberto Mondesi as their starting SS?  Doesn't Mondesi have virtually the same career OPS+ as Mateo?

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Yes, but you also can't win if you can't score any runs.  A team full of Mateos may save a ton of runs, but some balls will find gaps and some will go over the wall, even with the best defenders.  But that team will lose a TON of games as they would score little to no runs.  I get the logic of a defense first player like Mateo, but it makes less sense on a team constructed the way ours currently is.  Last year we just had too many holes in the lineup the last 1/2 of the season with Mateo, Odor, Mountcastle, Hays, etc all struggling with the bat.  Unfortunately it doesn't look like we addressed that this offseason as we are going with the same guys (Mountcastle, Hays, Mateo) or have signed marginal replacements that are likely blocking better hitting rookies (Frazier).  I'm actually more confident in our pitching to start the year than I am our ability to score runs.  Adley, Santander and Gunnar are not enough by themselves.   

100% (the bolded part) and I'll take it one step further and point out that even a stacked team like the Dodgers, who just traded for Mateo's doppleganger (Rojas), don't plan on playing him everyday. I'd personally like to see the O's bounce Gunnar back and forth between 3B and SS and get Urias plenty of ABs. In a perfect world, Mateo wouldn't get more than 350 ABs. 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I get that Mateo has considerable defensive value, but I'm curious why literally no other contending team seems content to play a SS who hits this poorly going into the season? My point about Mateo is that we live in an era where even the great defensive-minded players hit to some degree (i.e., the bar has been raised). I stand by my comment that he wouldn't be an everyday player on a good team. Not in the modern era when you typically don't have to sacrifice offense as often for good defense. 

The Astros had horrible 1B play last year. Now Gurriel had a track record that Mateo does not have. IKF with with Yankees didn’t hit great at SS.  
 

That said you can win with a below average hitter at any spot. Just can’t have a team full of them. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I see your point.

Back to Mateo's shortcomings, I don't think anyone would want to trot out a lineup of guys who have a .276 OBP.  But one guy in the lineup is ok, especially if he provides defense the way he does at SS.  

The Orioles playoff chances aren't going to be won or lost because Mateo provided 2.5-3.5 WAR if he stays the everyday SS all season but only had a .276 OBP.  

I can sort of see this logic on a stacked offensive team. The Orioles are not a stacked offense team. They need every batter, including their SS, to make some sort of contribution in order to contend.  Even moore so this year than last year since literally every other team in the AL East has made an effort to improve via free agency or through trades. 

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Are the Red Sox a contender?  Wasn't it you that started a thread about their addition of Adalberto Mondesi as their starting SS?  Doesn't Mondesi have virtually the same career OPS+ as Mateo?

Mondesi wasn't the Red Sox's plan A, he was their plan B after Story got injured. Completely different situation. 

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

The Astros had horrible 1B play last year. Now Gurriel had a track record that Mateo does not have. IKF with with Yankees didn’t hit great at SS.  
 

That said you can win with a below average hitter at any spot. Just can’t have a team full of them. 

The Astros also cut ties with Gurriel and signed Abreu who is a significant upgrade at 1B. So they're not taking that approach anymore. Gurriel was also coming off a fairly productive (not great, but good enough) offensive season in 2021. With Mateo, the Orioles are willingly going into the new season with one of the worst offensive SS' in 2022. Apples to oranges. 

[ShoelesJoe]

I know I’ve mentioned this in the past, but it appears Mateo’s offense was seriously impacted by the new LF dimensions at Camden Yards. His road stats were 246/ .304 /.435, which coming from a GG caliber shortstop is fantastic. If I was the GM of another team in the market for a SS I’d be looking at those numbers rather than what he did at home. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s so good and so valuable yet he has no value. It’s an interesting thought process.

Saying he has no value is the absence of a thought process.

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Saying he has no value is the absence of a thought process.

I think he might have been talking about trade value. We have a perfect comp though because Rojas, who's basically the same player, was traded a few weeks ago to the Dodgers. If the Orioles are shopping Mateo I think that's what they can expect to get in return. Maybe a little bit more, since Mateo is younger and a bit cheaper, but definitely not a significant prospect or MLB player.