Suggested Deal w/Marlins

[eddie83]

I listened a little bit this morning to MLBN radio. Show would have been from yesterday. I forget the host’s name but Jim Duquette was on. They spent a good bit of time discussing the Marlins. Brought up Casas, etc. Then the Orioles were brought into the conversation. Duquette said that Santander has been on market for awhile. He said considering the “liftoff” comment from Elias it would be hard to move him. He did say they would rather move Hays. Both agreed Mullins is too much for Lopez. Duquette said the Marlins waited too long to deal him. His value has dropped. Time to deal him was last year. He did think the Marlins and Orioles matched up pretty well but I don’t recall the specific word he used. 
 

Does not sound like Lopez has much value. Makes me wonder if Miami will just keep him and hope he throws well and see what he is worth at the deadline. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I listened a little bit this morning to MLBN radio. Show would have been from yesterday. I forget the host’s name but Jim Duquette was on. They spent a good bit of time discussing the Marlins. Brought up Casas, etc. Then the Orioles were brought into the conversation. Duquette said that Santander has been on market for awhile. He said considering the “liftoff” comment from Elias it would be hard to move him. He did say they would rather move Hays. Both agreed Mullins is too much for Lopez. Duquette said the Marlins waited too long to deal him. His value has dropped. Time to deal him was last year. He did think the Marlins and Orioles matched up pretty well but I don’t recall the specific word he used. 
 

Does not sound like Lopez has much value. Makes me wonder if Miami will just keep him and hope he throws well and see what he is worth at the deadline. 

Damn I was coming on to talk about this.  
 

They also mentioned Santander for Lopez.

The overall theme of these 2 being good trade partners and something being able to happen was certainly prevelant.

[Sports Guy]

They also felt Reynolds and Mullins had similar value.

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Damn I was coming on to talk about this.  
 

They also mentioned Santander for Lopez.

The overall theme of these 2 being good trade partners and something being able to happen was certainly prevelant.

Sounded like to me and maybe you heard differently was Duquette thought it would be hard for Elias to deal Santander due to the type of off-season they have had.  
 

At the end of the day the market for Lopez does not seem overwhelming. That said does Miami really need to move him? 

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They also felt Reynolds and Mullins had similar value.

Ok. I was turning it off when they started talking about this. 

[waroriole]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They also felt Reynolds and Mullins had similar value.

That’s a bit surprising. Maybe they do look to deal Mullins, since Elias clearly doesn’t see this as a year for contention. They would have another year to figure out what they can do for CF. 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Sounded like to me and maybe you heard differently was Duquette thought it would be hard for Elias to deal Santander due to the type of off-season they have had.  
 

At the end of the day the market for Lopez does not seem overwhelming. That said does Miami really need to move him? 

Yea he did say that but they also talked about Santander for Lopez.

[sportsfan8703]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea he did say that but they also talked about Santander for Lopez.

We’d have to make that trade. Santander for Lopez or even Santander + for Lopez. As of right now, given the market and everything, it’s really hard to deal Santander. 
 

How do we then replace Santander?  Well, this could explain the Frazier signing. He’s LH, can play 1B and some OF as well. Promote Westburg. How close is Cowser?  We could also sign Mancini as a stop gap. 
 

It’s worrisome, but I think we’d have to trade Santander. I have faith in Westburg, Cowser, and Stowers, for next year. Also, Lopez might benefit from a change of scenery. He’d go from just being another dude in Miami, but he’d be our staff leader here. 

[sportsfan8703]

Wishful thinking but if we could get Lopez for a deal centered around Mateo that would be ideal. Maybe they’d try Mateo in CF. 
 

Mateo, Hays, prospect for Lopez. 

[Number5]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Wishful thinking but if we could get Lopez for a deal centered around Mateo that would be ideal. Maybe they’d try Mateo in CF. 
 

Mateo, Hays, prospect for Lopez. 

Am I the only one that isn't all that impressed with Lopez?  I mean, he's OK, but why do folks think he's worth this much?  Mateo alone seems like a slight overpay to me.  Mateo under control 3 more years, 2022 3.4 rWAR & 2.8 fWAR vs. Lopez 2 years under control, 2022 3.0 rWAR & 2.8 fWAR.  Similar values with Mateo coming with one more year of control.  Seems to me that if either team should be adding to the deal, it should be MIA, not BAL.  Btw, I read that their intention is to play Segura at third, so they would appear to still be in the market for a SS, unless I missed something.

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Am I the only one that isn't all that impressed with Lopez?  I mean, he's OK, but why do folks think he's worth this much?  Mateo alone seems like a slight overpay to me.  Mateo under control 3 more years, 2022 3.4 rWAR & 2.8 fWAR vs. Lopez 2 years under control, 2022 3.0 rWAR & 2.8 fWAR.  Similar values with Mateo coming with one more year of control.  Seems to me that if either team should be adding to the deal, it should be MIA, not BAL.  Btw, I read that their intention is to play Segura at third, so they would appear to still be in the market for a SS, unless I missed something.

I think the key difference here is Mateo's WAR is largely defensively driven and the Marlins are looking for offense. They don't have to deal Lopez. They could wait and see if he rebounds a bit and regains some value. A year and a half of him after a 3.00 ERA first half could yield as much or more than 2 years of him coming off his 3.75 ERA season (and 4.97 ERA second half). 

I like Lopez and think he's probably the best pitcher available that the Orioles would have a realistic shot of getting. Realistically, he's a solid mid-rotation starter. 

On a pure WAR to WAR comparison, Mateo for Lopez seems fair. BUT...the Marlins are only going do deal him now if they can fill their biggest need: offense. Mateo doesn't offer that. He offers defense and speed. Santander offers offense. And some of our near-ready prospects offer offense and given the Marlins are not really win-now, near-ready prospects could be right up their alley. 

[orioles22]

I hate losing Santander, but with Hays and Cowser (hopefully, by August), the Orioles can fill the corner spots. We need another starting pitcher if we are going to improve on last year.

[RZNJ]

Lopez is at a good age, has a great changeup, good fastball, good control, interesting cutter and sinker.  What else does he have? An under utilized curveball which has great numbers the last two years.  The dude has a lot of weapons.  I think he is good with the potential to be a #2 or maybe better.  Of course, he only has two years of service time which is why he won't cost an arm and a leg.

[Camden Yards]

Let’s say we traded Santander for Lopez. Could we package Kremer and Urias for an OF? What would a package look like for Brian Reynolds?

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Let’s say we traded Santander for Lopez. Could we package Kremer and Urias for an OF? What would a package look like for Brian Reynolds?

Pirates will want prospects or rookies.  Forget Reynolds.  He'll cost too much.