ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle thinks the O’s currently are a 72-win team

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

8th most improved ….but less wins?

Because he’s only talking about the improvements from players added or subtracted, not about performance of the returning players.  He feels the returnees have more downside than upside, apparently.   Presumably that’s the pitching.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I will be curious what the Vegas over/under will be set at. 72 will be way low. My guess is about 80. 

I would guess 76 or so.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Right now the Frobbometer projections have us winning 81 games, plus or minus 10.    
 

The Frobbometer goes out on a pretty big limb with that +/- of 81 wins!

[Going Underground]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would guess 76 or so.

75.5 is the consensus but not sure if any books are taking bets yet on over/under. I know you can bet the World Series 

[Going Underground]

3 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

75.5 is the consensus but not sure if any books are taking bets yet on over/under. I know you can bet the World Series 

TWWorkd Series odds. Oo3n andcurrentuQEAM	OPENING ODDS	CURRENT ODDS
Astros	+700	+650
Yankees	+900	+750
Dodgers	+500	+800
Mets	+1100	+1000
Padres	+1400	+1000
Braves	+800	+1100
Phillies	+1300	+1100
Mariners	+1800	+1400
Blue Jays	+900	+1400
Cardinals	+1700	+1800
White Sox	+1400	+2500
Rays	+2200	+2500
Giants	+3500	+3000
Guardians	+3500	+3300
Angels	+2500	+3300
Orioles	+3500	+4000
Brewers	+2200	+4000
Rangers	+5000	+4000
Red Sox	+3000	+5000
Cubs	+8000	+6600
Twins	+4000	+6600
Diamondbacks	+6600	+8000
Tigers	+5000	+8000
Marlins	+5000	+8000
Rockies	+8000	+15000
Royals	+8000	+15000
Reds	+10000	+20000
Pirates	+15000	+25000
Athletics	+15000	+30000
Nationals	+15000	+40000

Edited December 27, 2022 by Going Underground

[Going Underground]

2 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

TWWorkd Series odds. Oo3n andcurrentuQEAM	OPENING ODDS	CURRENT ODDS
Astros	+700	+650
Yankees	+900	+750
Dodgers	+500	+800
Mets	+1100	+1000
Padres	+1400	+1000
Braves	+800	+1100
Phillies	+1300	+1100
Mariners	+1800	+1400
Blue Jays	+900	+1400
Cardinals	+1700	+1800
White Sox	+1400	+2500
Rays	+2200	+2500
Giants	+3500	+3000
Guardians	+3500	+3300
Angels	+2500	+3300
Orioles	+3500	+4000
Brewers	+2200	+4000
Rangers	+5000	+4000
Red Sox	+3000	+5000
Cubs	+8000	+6600
Twins	+4000	+6600
Diamondbacks	+6600	+8000
Tigers	+5000	+8000
Marlins	+5000	+8000
Rockies	+8000	+15000
Royals	+8000	+15000
Reds	+10000	+20000
Pirates	+15000	+25000
Athletics	+15000	+30000
Nationals	+15000	+40000

First is current and second is   what it opened  at World Series odds 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Going Underground

[SemperFi]

 Isn't even with the balanced season his ratings of NY (3), TB (5) and TOR (8) a large factor?  I am more optimistic about the O's chances.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

The Frobbometer goes out on a pretty big limb with that +/- of 81 wins!

I just looked and was surprised to see that 17 of 30 teams last year were outside the range of 81 wins plus or minus 10.   I sort of figured 2/3 to 3/4 of teams would fit there.  

[SemperFi]

56 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

First is current and second is   what it opened  at World Series odds 

Aren't betting odds largely influenced by where the bets will flow?  

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

McCann > Chirinos/Bemboom.  20-30+ games are improved.

And I think Frazier is significantly better than Odor.  Especially from an OBP and low K% perspective.

Adley, Gunnar…

Elias has made the offense better.  Maybe not how you (or any of us) would have.  

No, he didn't.  McCann and Frazier have been awful recently.  Maybe they have a slight bounce back and combine for one extra win over the bad players who left but it's not nearly enough.  We needed a real bat and didn't get one.  It'll be entirely on the internal options improving.  I hope they do but that's not Elias improving the offense as we expected he would.

[Moshagge3]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He is acting like the Os outgained their pythag theorem record by like 7-10 games.

The Orioles were actually right in line with the Pythag record until that 19-4 game against Boston where Jordan Lyles was coming out of the flu.

[TopGunnar]

I’ll be extremely disappointed if we only win 72 next year.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

People need to remember that we also are replacing Lopez’s innings that were damn good until he was dealt.  We also don’t know that the arms that came out of nowhere would be as good.

Gibson is far from a definite to be better than Lyles.

McCann and Frazier are likely upgrades but not likely by some big amount.

More than any of this, it depends on the development of young players, so guys turn into pumpkins, etc…

We could sign Eovaldi today and I still don’t think we should say, we are DEFiNTELY better. That’s a stretch and assumes no one struggles.

And again, the one thing Os fans continue to gloss over is how healthy the team was last year. 

I would agree that on paper, we SHOULD be better. But saying it’s definite is absolutely wrong.

The real improvement comes for Gunnar, Grayson, Stowers, a full year of Adley plus the depth that Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and Hall prove.   The FA acquisition are mostly placeholders.

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, Going Underground said:

75.5 is the consensus but not sure if any books are taking bets yet on over/under. I know you can bet the World Series 

WS odds vary from around +3000 to +5000. 

[btdart20]

34 minutes ago, Ripken said:

No, he didn't.  McCann and Frazier have been awful recently.  Maybe they have a slight bounce back and combine for one extra win over the bad players who left but it's not nearly enough.  We needed a real bat and didn't get one.  It'll be entirely on the internal options improving.  I hope they do but that's not Elias improving the offense as we expected he would.

Are your projections based on your free agency hopes being dashed by Elias not signing the studs you wanted?  Or are they based on the actual individual contributors on the team?

The reason I ask that is because 2022 Frazier/McCann were at least 1 game better than 2022 Odor/Chirinos/Bemboom.  And upside of the new guys is more likely than the old guys.  And the downside for the old guys is more likely than the new guys.