Jump to content

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle thinks the O’s currently are a 72-win team

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 84
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

waroriole
waroriole

I’m not surprised this guy made that prediction. Bradford Dolittle is the worst baseball name I’ve ever heard. 

O's84
O's84

Doolittle... I can't find a better way to describe the O's offseason.

Frobby
Frobby

At the end of the day, all these projections systems are just educated guesswork with huge margins of error.   I look at them for entertainment purposes but would never bet money based on what they sa

DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Frobby said:

24. Baltimore Orioles

Projected wins: 72.4
Playoff odds: 6%
Title odds: 0% (no change)
Aggression rank: 19
Improvement rank: 8

While I was hoping for a splashy Orioles winter -- Correa! Jacob deGrom! -- I also understood that the team couldn't operate as if last year's playoff contention was a real thing. Well, of course it was real, and it was spectacular. But the Orioles weren't as good as their record. They were a team still in rebuild mode that had an emergent bullpen and saw the ascension of some key young players, including new franchise face Adley Rutschman. Allowing the new young core to coalesce is probably smart, even as Baltimore tries to be opportunistic in the star market going forward. But a real splash would have been fun.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed

Interesting that Doolittle ranks the O’s 8th in improvement.   As he explains: “The ‘improvement’ rank considers the net impact a team's offseason machinations have had on its 2023 outlook. This is a rating on the moves alone, not on the team's overall chances to be better, an assessment that should also consider aging patterns, improvement of young players, regression factors, etc.”

 

That seems a little bearish, and this is coming from someone who is already somewhat bearish on the 2023 Orioles.

My guess is we end up somewhere between 75 and 85 wins if there are no other notable moves before spring training.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
deward Major Leaguer Rising Star

deward

Posted
Posted

I can easily envision a scenario where this predication turns out to be pretty close. I expect significant regression from the pitching staff vs 2022; GrayRod will hopefully help offset some of that, but he'll be limited in innings. Beyond Rodriguez, I don't see much pitching help coming from the farm in 2023 (I don't have high expectations for Hall). So, imagine a year where the pitching falls back to earth, injuries are more of a factor, and Gunnar maybe doesn't light the world on fire in year 1. I could see 72-75 wins. I would consider that more likely than them winning 90 next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

This board is cocky?   Bet you can’t name 5 posters who think this team is a shoe-in for 83 wins or better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
  • Author
Posted
16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

It wouldn’t shock me.   It would bum me out big-time, though.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

At this point, I think they are a 75-85 win team. So much variance because of the young players.

The problem is they haven’t really improved the team and they blocked some young guys with more upside.

It’s really been an awful offseason. This team was always going to go as far as the existing talent would take them but when you don’t really give them help and give the fans a reason to buy season tickets, that’s really pathetic.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

At this point, I think they are a 75-85 win team. So much variance because of the young players.

The problem is they haven’t really improved the team and they blocked some young guys with more upside.

It’s really been an awful offseason. This team was always going to go as far as the existing talent would take them but when you don’t really give them help and give the fans a reason to buy season tickets, that’s really pathetic.

 

That's a fair assessment on all levels, I agree with all of it.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JR Oriole Major Leaguer

JR Oriole

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That's a fair assessment on all levels, I agree with all of it.  

Yep, I do too.  

Not sure any team has done less than we have.  Maybe Seattle, but they did extend Rodriguez with a massive contract during the season.  So they should get credit for that.  And they did make the playoffs and knock out the Jays in the process.  

They don't appear interesting in really working much this offseason, so we shouldn't expect them to do anything at all.  If they do, great.  But I wouldn't expect it. I think Moose said it in another thread....it doesn't matter who gets the blame for being cheap.  The reality is "they" are cheap.  And real slow and real scared to commit to anything or anyone.  But I don't see any reason why the expectation of the fans for this team in 2023 should not be to get to the playoffs and at least win a series.  We do not need to continue to give this organization any more free passes or time extensions than we already have.  Get to October and win some games there in 2023.  That is very reasonable at this point in the process.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Yep, I do too.  

Not sure any team has done less than we have.  Maybe Seattle, but they did extend Rodriguez with a massive contract during the season.  So they should get credit for that.  And they did make the playoffs and knock out the Jays in the process.  

They don't appear interesting in really working much this offseason, so we shouldn't expect them to do anything at all.  If they do, great.  But I wouldn't expect it. I think Moose said it in another thread....it doesn't matter who gets the blame for being cheap.  The reality is "they" are cheap.  And real slow and real scared to commit to anything or anyone.  But I don't see any reason why the expectation of the fans for this team in 2023 should not be to get to the playoffs and at least win a series.  We do not need to continue to give this organization any more free passes or time extensions than we already have.  Get to October and win some games there in 2023.  That is very reasonable at this point in the process.  

Honestly, I'd be happier if they'd literally stood pat and not signed Gibson and Frazier this offseason.  I'm alright with Givens and McCann but the other two signings are just dumb.  I'd rather have them not spent that money than spend it how they did.  It's just dumb.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BamaOsFan Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

BamaOsFan

Posted
Posted

As much as I'd love for the Os to improve on 83 wins, I just don't see it with the present lineup. 

The bullpen saved us last year and to expect them to do the same this year is asking a lot.

If Means can come back in June and return to form it's possible. The schedule improves for the O's, but also for everyone else in the AL East.

Can Santander duplicate his numbers? Will Henderson continue to develop to be afront line starter?

Can we avoid serious injuries? There are a lot of unknowns moving forward.

Still a trade for a true durable front line starter is a must IMO for this team to seriously contend for a playoff spot.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Moshagge3
      Congratulations Yankees

      By Moshagge3 · Posted

      HEY YANKEES! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnxNRPy_SOA
    • Fiver6565
      Congratulations Yankees

      By Fiver6565 · Posted

      Yeah I'm all for sportsmanship but seeing 'Congratulations Yankees' at or near the top of the board is sickening, not gonna lie.  There is no high road when it comes to these clowns.  Boone's constant whining, the well-documented HP ump favoritism (I don't care if its framing or whatever, its happening, and its annoying AF), the whining about Judge getting hit on the hand while their guys constantly pitch inside including of course the Kjerstad play where they were literally cutting up on the bench as he lay prone on home plate, the ginormous payroll, the incredibly entitled fan base booing at pitches being called balls that are three inches off the plate, that stupid roll call, that stupid whistle after strikeouts, the stupid national media drooling over a Judge v Ohtani WS possibility, Nestor Cortes and his dumb mustache, the mediocre stadium that is revered simply because its called Yankee Stadium, the ridiculously short RF porch, the Soto Shuffle or whatever the hell it is. Congratulations my ass.  Screw those dudes.
    • Too Tall
      Congratulations Yankees

      By Too Tall · Posted

      Here's the deal. I doubt anyone on the Yankee's board congradulated us last year. This year they won the East. Whippie for them. It's like saying the IRS won tax season. IF, we do anything in the playoffs, we may meet again. But there are some significant hurdles before that. And they could easily lose along the way. Cleveland, Houston, Detroit, and KC are no walk in the park. I'll root for the O's to go as far as they can and that the Yankees are one and done. We are in. I hope we win one more so we play the opening round in Oriole Park. If not, we are still in and have to do what we got to do to go anywhere. Two years in a row. While the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Tampa sleep. Year two with a heck of a lot more obstacles. This may not be a WS year but we are competitive, young, and a hell of a lot classier than that bunch in the Bronx. 
    • Fiver6565
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Fiver6565 · Posted

      The usage of Cano last night was poor, I don't even blame him really.  Yankees had 9-1-2 coming up, and Torres is well known (based on the telecast) to hit Cano well, and hit sinkers well.  He laced that hit to RF off him on Tuesday where the Yanks screwed up the baserunning.  And Soto got a hit off him that same inning.  So it was pretty predictable that these guys were going to tee off when he came in, and that's exactly what happened. Not to mention he's pitched a lot recently, and Burnes should have pitched another inning anyway.  Just baffling decisions by Hyde last night, and I'm not one to generally question those types of things.  Even if the Burnes thing was pre-ordained, the choice of Cano for that moment was terrible.
    • wildcard
      Congratulations Yankees

      By wildcard · Posted

      Why is this thread on the Oriole Talk section.    It probably does not belong on the OriolesHangout  at all but if it stays it should be on the MLB section.
    • Fiver6565
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Fiver6565 · Posted

      If there's two outs and its not Judge in the hole, I'm probably going with Perez, crossing my fingers he gets the lefty, and then starting fresh the next inning with Coulombe or someone else.  If there's one out, I'm going w/ Coulombe.
    • Sports Guy
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Sports Guy · Posted

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...