ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle thinks the O’s currently are a 72-win team

[Just Regular]

I think about the pitching roster sometimes in the context of job loss.     Some of a way around likely regression for me is just don't use the same mediocre or worse pitchers.

I don't really care if Krehbiel or Watkins can't make the team - I mostly hope they don't.    I hope Grayson and DL are on the OD roster, but I think I know how that one is going to go.    An Eovaldi type would have been a milestone get, but I couldn't guess if the Adley-Gunnar-Grayson-DL text chain is running like "glad we didn't block you with that grandpa bro" or "dang it how am i ever supposed to learn how to become a good pitcher   "

Obviously TBD injuries, but who does Michael Wacha unseat if acquired?    The Best 13 for Boston today might be:

Bulk - Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson, Voth

Middle - Wells, Akin, Givens, DL Hall

Late - Baker, Cionel, Tate, Felix

How Elias rates choosing Gibson over the multi-year guys - probably fair to see his 2024 redeployment, but no doubt you put yourself in shackles because only pitchers with lots of warts take 1-year deals.    It isn't apples to apples to say Gibson + Frazier = Eovaldi because of the years, and I believe Decision Sciences heavily weighs (maybe too heavily?) injury risk across longer terms.

I am guessing for the first time in a while we'll finally be free of the April pitcher BS we need 19 pitchers for the first two weeks because the poor things, the poor things, so on some level a Wacha add or Pablo trade from here is just eating into Grayson/DL roster odds.    They are the two most at risk of the 13 above.

We know Grayson/DL can't carry season long loads, but half season gets you to the trade deadline and maybe Means.    They've been training as starting pitchers their whole lives for this, and do have platform for 15 turns.    The trade deadline gives Clubs their best opportunity to combine greatness and short terms, with the current CBA doing okay so far performing its basic function for the MLBPA.    Unless maybe you want Ramon Laureano or Cole Irvin.

 

[NCRaven]

I don't believe that DL is a reliever at the beginning of '23.  I think he will be starting in Baltimore or Norfolk at the beginning of the season.  

[Just Regular]

45 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't believe that DL is a reliever at the beginning of '23.  I think he will be starting in Baltimore or Norfolk at the beginning of the season.  

It feels likely Watkins and Krehbiel could go to Boston at Grayson and DL's expense for reasons (even if we don't get Wacha, Pablo, Irvin, Eduardo, Burnes, whoever), and its going to stink.

In terms of matching pitcher talent to team needs, Means and trade doors open then not now give the roster 2nd half upside it doesn't have in the 1st half.     As circumstances fall together for April 2023, I don't think they need to ration Grayson/DL that month for any competitive reasons.

[2001OriolesFan]

What did that expert say last year?   Why so you expect he would guess better this year?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

Why so you expect he would guess better this year?

Well, our Pythagorean record for one and our incredibly good luck with injuries for two.

We definitely overachieved and were overly lucky in regards to injuries last year, so expecting some regression is pretty reasonable, especially since the other teams in our division have been busy improving themselves this offseason while we have made mostly lateral moves.

That said, 72 wins is probably a bit on the pessimistic side. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Well, our Pythagorean record for one and our incredibly good luck with injuries for two.

We definitely overachieved and were overly lucky in regards to injuries last year, so expecting some regression is pretty reasonable, especially since the other teams in our division have been busy improving themselves this offseason while we have made mostly lateral moves.

That said, 72 wins is probably a bit on the pessimistic side. 

I’d say the offense was lucky with injuries. The pitching was not particularly  lucky that way.   

[DrinkinWithFermi]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say the offense was lucky with injuries. The pitching was not particularly  lucky that way.   

I just meant in a general, overall sense, but that is probably fair.

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I don't believe that DL is a reliever at the beginning of '23.  I think he will be starting in Baltimore or Norfolk at the beginning of the season.  

I hope they get creative with some of the pitching assignments. We have Bradish, Gibson, and Kremer who shouldn’t have limits placed on their innings this year. Everyone else will be somewhat limited. I’d like to see regular tag team games with some combination of Grayson, Hall, Wells, and Voth. Give each a chance to win a spot in the rotation but manage their innings. 

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I don't believe that DL is a reliever at the beginning of '23.  I think he will be starting in Baltimore or Norfolk at the beginning of the season.  

I agree. In light of the team needs, his handedness and his potential -- at least to some -- it's too early to give up on Hall. Barring consistent disaster, I think he's a starter for the big club until Means is available or a MiL starter earns a shot.

[NCRaven]

I think that Hall has some of the best pure "stuff" on the team or in the system.  Given, that's when he controls it, I know.  If he can harness his talent, he's much more valuable to the O's as a starter than as a reliever.  Having said that, I have no problem with them "creatively" managing his innings this season.