At what point is Elias' job in jeopardy?

[Es4M11]

Just asking the question, not to say that I think he should be fired at this time, but at what point does the question start to be asked? He has four years on the job, and very little in the way of actual positive results. I get that the Elias has seemingly drafted well and the team looks poised to compete, and I sure am excited for the next few seasons to come, but what if they bomb this season and revert back to a 70-75 win team? Does Elias have unlimited rope here? Personally, I think this next season is going to go a long way to determine his future here. If this team takes a step back in year 5 how many of us would want a year 6?

[NCRaven]

I think he has the full support of ownership since he's doing what ownership wants him to do.  Try to win as cheaply as possible.

[Moose Milligan]

This isn't the NFL. 

[Es4M11]

Just now, NCRaven said:

I think he has the full support of ownership since he's doing what ownership wants him to do.  Try to win as cheaply as possible.

Yeah, I could agree with that. I guess I am more interested in the opinion of the fan base.

[Es4M11]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

This isn't the NFL. 

Great answer!

[NCRaven]

The fanbase doesn't hire or fire a GM.  That's my only point.  

[Three Run Homer]

I think Elias has done an excellent job building up the farm system and that the industry is well aware of this.   I don't think there is any justifiable reason to fire him unless it becomes clear that the O's  top prospects are mostly going to wash out, and there is no way that we will know this by the end of the 2023 season, even if the O's take a step back in terms of W-L record.  

I think it is far more likely that Elias quits in the next 2 years than that he gets fired.   He should be at the top of the wish list of any team that needs to rebuild and is willing to tank to get there.  Elias has every right to feel frustrated with ownership's penny pinching and may want to go to a team where ownership is more willing to spend once the team becomes competitive.  

[Es4M11]

Just now, NCRaven said:

The fanbase doesn't hire or fire a GM.  That's my only point.  

The fanbase can certainly influence firing a gm. Hiring, probably not.

[NCRaven]

Fans hate Roger Goodell.  Roger Goodell helps NFL owners make lots of money.  The owners hire and fire the Commissioner.  Rogers job is safe.  

Billy Beane never won a World Series.  The A's have been fairly competitive and extremely cheap.  His job was always safe.

Just think that there isn't any meat to this topic.

Edited January 4, 2023 by NCRaven

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Great answer!

Well, it's not.  I think it's vastly more likely for an NFL team to go from being at the bottom of a division to being a playoff contender or making a playoff run in a couple years time.

That's not this.  Elias has been clear from the start as to what his goal is, which is to create an organization that can supply the big-league club with a steady flow of talent.  He's taken the franchise from being in the dark ages in terms of advanced metrics and analytics to a place where, as far as I can tell, they're able to hold their own with other forward thinking franchises.  He's built a facility in the Dominican and he's taken this organization from practically no-presence in South America to being able to spend money down there.

If they revert to a 70-75 win team, I don't think it makes much of a difference as to his job security.  While I have my criticisms of him (not being able to sign quality free agents, not being able to swing meaningful offseason trades) I'm overall happy with him and what he's done.  One season isn't really going to change that.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Es4M11]

Just now, Three Run Homer said:

I think Elias has done an excellent job building up the farm system and that the industry is well aware of this.   I don't think there is any justifiable reason to fire him unless it becomes clear that the O's  top prospects are mostly going to wash out, and there is no way that we will know this by the end of the 2023 season, even if the O's take a step back in terms of W-L record.  

I think it is far more likely that Elias quits in the next 2 years than that he gets fired.   He should be at the top of the wish list of any team that needs to rebuild and is willing to tank to get there.  Elias has every right to feel frustrated with ownership's penny pinching and may want to go to a team where ownership is more willing to spend once the team becomes competitive.  

Agreed, Elias has done an excellent job of building up the farm. But that is only one aspect of a major league franchise. Is it good enough just to have a good farm?

[Aristotelian]

I would be more inclined to extend him than to fire him. He has done a tremendous job to set up the franchise to win as soon as new ownership is in place. 

[Orioles0615]

If they don't make the playoffs this year or next year one of him or Hyde needs to be fired

[Es4M11]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Well, it's not.  I think it's vastly more likely for an NFL team to go from being at the bottom of a division to being a playoff contender or making a playoff run.  

That's not this.  Elias has been clear from the start as to what his goal is, which is to create an organization that can supply the big-league club with a steady flow of talent.  He's taken the franchise from being in the dark ages in terms of advanced metrics and analytics to a place where, as far as I can tell, they're able to hold their own with other forward thinking franchises.  He's built a facility in the Dominican and he's taken this organization from practically no-presence in South America to being able to spend money down there.

If they revert to a 70-75 win team, I don't think it makes much of a difference as to his job security.  While I have my criticisms of him (not being able to sign quality free agents, not being able to swing meaningful offseason trades) I'm overall happy with him and what he's done.  One season isn't really going to change that.

Legit a good answer. Thanks

At what point do you think your patience for this protracted rebuild would reach it's theoretical limit? Is it not fair for a fan base to expect positive results at the big league level within 5 years? 6, 7?

[Three Run Homer]

2 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Agreed, Elias has done an excellent job of building up the farm. But that is only one aspect of a major league franchise. Is it good enough just to have a good farm?

Of course not--a winning team needs those prospects to become good MLB players, and it needs ownership that is willing to spend once the team shows signs of being competitive.  We won't know about the former for a few more years, and the latter is not under Elias' control.