2019 Rays Farm System

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s why they got Frazier, right? 

I feel like the hit rate on players in the 76-100 range isn’t that high.  

No, it’s still dumb…because those guys need a chance to sink or swim and they are ready to do it. So you either play them or trade them.  You don’t block them with poor signings of likely going no where vet players.

But you do need to make trades. You need to move guys for established players to help you win, like Tampa has done.  A lot of people questioned the Liberatore trade because of how high he was ranked.  Doesn’t look so bad now.

They believed in their evaluation and made that trade and they believe in their ability to develop pitching. 
 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'll see if I can't find it, and I surely encountered it on this board, but wasn't there a study floating around in the last year that had analyzed BA lists and found it was about a 50% fail rate for top 20 prospects.  Surely it is higher than that for lower ranked prospects.

Now, maybe our guys can beat that.  There's some reason to believe that.  Risk profile has been mentioned in this thread and our guys certainly have the advantage over the Rays' guys there.  Less pitchers and further along in their development.  Frankly, any study that wants to analyze bust rates, should be taking that into account.  There's a world of difference between a top 100 guy in AAA and a top 100 in the DSL.

I wonder what percentage of guys in the Top 100 spend significant time at AAA?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wonder what percentage of guys in the Top 100 spend significant time at AAA?

Define significant.  I would expect a significant amount of them to have.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Let’s say in 2025…Gunnar and Grayson have made an ASG. We got 9.0 WAR from Pablo Lopez, but traded away Cowser, Norby, and Ortiz. Hall was a 1.3 WAR reliever. Westburg has been a Util player, but solid regular. Holliday was top 3 in 2024 ROY voting. 
 

Would we be happy?  That’s probably optimal type outcome. 

We've talked about the Lopez trade on here so much, how has it not happened?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Define significant.  I would expect a significant amount of them to have.

Same amount of time it would take to lose rookie status in the majors work for you?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Same amount of time it would take to lose rookie status in the majors work for you?

Ok, I think I see where you're headed with this.

It's a good question.  Rookie status is 140 abs, right?

So how many top 100 guys get more than 140 abs in AAA?

I stand by original claim: A significant amount.  I would go at least as far to say the majority of them do.  Probably the vast majority.  140 abs isn't that many.

[sportsfan8703]

I’m not sure I would bury Jesus Sanchez or Vidal Brujan yet. They’re both younger, toolsy, players with good AAA track records. Liberatore isn’t done yet either. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m not sure I would bury Jesus Sanchez or Vidal Brujan yet. They’re both younger, toolsy, players with good AAA track records. Liberatore isn’t done yet either. 

No, I wouldn't bury them yet either.  However, there's a certain time frame for returning value to the parent club.  If it takes a guy 4 years, and getting waived three times, to become a big league contributor, that's great for him and his family.  But it's very likely he has provided very little, if any, value to his original parent club.

[LTO's]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wonder what percentage of guys in the Top 100 spend significant time at AAA?

The VAST majority. It's not even close. 

[Can_of_corn]

57 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Ok, I think I see where you're headed with this.

It's a good question.  Rookie status is 140 abs, right?

So how many top 100 guys get more than 140 abs in AAA?

I stand by original claim: A significant amount.  I would go at least as far to say the majority of them do.  Probably the vast majority.  140 abs isn't that many.

Seems fair.

Would have to be a lot of case by case things.  Like I wouldn't count Hays as being called up before having time at AAA since I've seen no evidence that the plan was ever to have him start the next season in the majors.  But time spent in minor league rehab games obviously shouldn't count either.

For the record I agree that the majority probably do. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

Ok, I think I see where you're headed with this.

It's a good question.  Rookie status is 140 abs, right?

So how many top 100 guys get more than 140 abs in AAA?

I stand by original claim: A significant amount.  I would go at least as far to say the majority of them do.  Probably the vast majority.  140 abs isn't that many.

It might depend on when they are in the top 100, and how high they are.  I’d bet top 25 guys spend less time in AAA than the 76-100 guys.  

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

It might depend on when they are in the top 100, and how high they are.  I’d bet top 25 guys spend less time in AAA than the 76-100 guys.  

Absolutely.  The Phenoms would be the guys populating a list like that.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Absolutely.  The Phenoms would be the guys populating a list like that.

And some of the top 100 guys might not advance past AA.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

I'll see if I can't find it, and I surely encountered it on this board, but wasn't there a study floating around in the last year that had analyzed BA lists and found it was about a 50% fail rate for top 20 prospects.  Surely it is higher than that for lower ranked prospects.

Now, maybe our guys can beat that.  There's some reason to believe that.  Risk profile has been mentioned in this thread and our guys certainly have the advantage over the Rays' guys there.  Less pitchers and further along in their development.  Frankly, any study that wants to analyze bust rates, should be taking that into account.  There's a world of difference between a top 100 guy in AAA and a top 100 in the DSL.

I would agree.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Seems fair.

Would have to be a lot of case by case things.  Like I wouldn't count Hays as being called up before having time at AAA since I've seen no evidence that the plan was ever to have him start the next season in the majors.  But time spent in minor league rehab games obviously shouldn't count either.

For the record I agree that the majority probably do. 

As Frobby notes, the guys who spend little time in AAA are more likely to be the best of the best prospects.