Maybe Frazier can play

[interloper]

Sure, of course he can play. I think he'll be a fine defender, and an average or slightly-below average bat. If he sucks, well, he sucks. I dunno what else to say about it. 

Edited January 20, 2023 by interloper

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, Orange said:

He's a left-handed hitter who gets on base and plays above-average defense at three positions. People get upset about him blocking some prospect, but I think there's always a role for a guy like Frazier. $8m is a little more than I'd like to have spent, but it's not my money and it's a one-year deal. I don't get the hate.

He gets on base? Just touching 1b doesn't count, the ball needs to touch the ground and then you have to beat the ball there

[sportsfan8703]

I bet Odor had a heck of a defensive highlight reel just from last year. 
 

We have three GG level defenders already here in Gunnar, Urias, and Mateo, to fill out the IF. Then we have Vavra, Westburg, Norby, and Ortiz, as depth right behind them. 
 

Heck, it would’ve been better to not sign Frazier and Givens, and just sign Jose Quintana. 

[LTO's]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so now it’s because he is left handed. Thats you moving the goal posts from what you said.

I'm not moving any goalposts. I'm not trying to change your mind on this. 1. That's impossible. 2. I don't care. The FO is obviously way better off following their plans than yours.

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The “versatility” angle is poor because he’s an average at best OFer who has seen his sprint speed really fall off recently, so that versatility is likely to not be good versatility very soon.

Sprint speed is really not that important and the changes from year to year are sometimes drastic. Austin Hays was very good in 2021 and had a slower sprint speed than Eloy Jimenez who many consider the worst OF in baseball. Frazier was in the 90th percentile in OAA last year. He's the 3rd best defensive OF on the roster at worst. 

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And lastly, he has a 600ish OPS over his last 800ish at bats. People want to reference 2021. His OBP dropped 70ish points between the first and second half. It was still an ok 321 but he hasn’t been that great at getting on base for 2.5 of the last 3 seasons and now, he is entering an age bracket where historically speaking, MIers tend to fall of a cliff and all the signs are pointing to him doing just that.

He was an all-star in Pitt and still an above average regular in SD. Was also far from the only player to have their offensive stats decline after going there. Same happened to Soto and Bell and Manny initially. In any event the OBP he put up there was still near the best we have on the roster right now. 

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have said this several times..if he has a 2 WAR this year, that wouldn’t surprise me. He should still be a good fielder at second and perhaps he can hit enough to keep his WAR respectable but I don’t care. I think our MiLers could have done the same thing (or better) while also gaining valuable experience and using that 8M (which will be 10-15% of the payroll) in a better way.

If he puts up 2 WAR that would be fantastic. Could Westburg duplicate that next year? Sure. Is it all that likely? Nope. Is banking on him doing it smart? Absolutely not. As I said in another post in this thread, if you think the 8 mil could've been but to better use than fine. But be specific. And operate on the assumption that the deal has to be 1 year. 

[Frobby]

Rather than rehashing for thousandth time the arguments against Frazier, let’s just focus on his defense, which is the topic of the video in the OP.

The numbers suggest Frazier will be a big updgrade over Odor defensively at 2B, though his stats are more in the “solid” category than “outstanding.”  Here are some 2022 and career numbers for his defense at 2B (Odor in parentheses):

OAA: +6 in 2022, +11 career (-5, +22)

UZR: +0.1, +1.5 (-2.9, -13.3)

Rtot: -2, +6 (-13, -11)

Rdrs: 0, +16 (-9, -35)

Here are Frazier’s numbers in the outfield (combined):

OAA: 0, 0

UZR: +1.0, +1.8

Rtot: +4, +7

Rdrs: +2, +9

So, solely from a defective perspective, Frazier should be a big upgrade from Odor at 2B, and also capable of playing well in the OF, while Odor offered no versatility.   

I think he’s probably better defensively than Westburg at 2B, and almost certainly better than Norby.   I think Ortiz probably could match or exceeed him.  

I’m not sure how Urias would do with prolonged exposure at 2B.   He’s played about 40-45 games there over 3 years, to about average results.  Might do better with more regular playing time there.  
 

 

 

[btdart20]

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, solely from a defective perspective, Frazier should be a big upgrade from Odor at 2B

LOL!

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I'm not moving any goalposts. I'm not trying to change your mind on this. 1. That's impossible. 2. I don't care. The FO is obviously way better off following their plans than yours.

Sprint speed is really not that important and the changes from year to year are sometimes drastic. Austin Hays was very good in 2021 and had a slower sprint speed than Eloy Jimenez who many consider the worst OF in baseball. Frazier was in the 90th percentile in OAA last year. He's the 3rd best defensive OF on the roster at worst. 

He was an all-star in Pitt and still an above average regular in SD. Was also far from the only player to have their offensive stats decline after going there. Same happened to Soto and Bell and Manny initially. In any event the OBP he put up there was still near the best we have on the roster right now. 

If he puts up 2 WAR that would be fantastic. Could Westburg duplicate that next year? Sure. Is it all that likely? Nope. Is banking on him doing it smart? Absolutely not. As I said in another post in this thread, if you think the 8 mil could've been but to better use than fine. But be specific. And operate on the assumption that the deal has to be 1 year. 

1) you didn’t mention LH in your opening post. You added that later as a reason they signed him after not mentioning as a reason they signed him the first time around. That’s moving the goal posts.

2) lol…range matters in the OF. If he’s not moving as fast, his range will go down. His OAA showed him to be an average OFer last year. As he gets older and slower, that’s not likely to be the case. Thats just common sense.

3) And yea, a drop off moving to that park is expected..I agree. Of course, he had an unsustainable BABiP in the first half of that season, so it was going to drop off anywhere. On top of that, he was completely terrible last year. This is now becoming a trend. Bad in the shortened 2020 season (only means so much)…mediocre at best in the second half of the 2021 season and bad last year. That’s about a 3 year stretch of pretty subpar baseball outside of the first half of 2021.

Now, that first half did happen and that is what we have to hope for as something relatively recent, to hang out hats on and that’s what gives me some hope that he can be a 2 WAR guy and at least be productive, even if he was a terrible signing.

4) I’m 100% convinced that if the Os decided to hand Westburg the job that you wouldn’t feel this way. You are fine with this signing because the Os did it and you will praise them for it.  I think Westburg is just as likely to be a 2 WAR guy as Frazier and maybe he’s more likely.  Better bat for sure. Frazier likely the better defender but I think Westburg will be good there.

As for the 8M…put it towards a better pitcher. Or for someone in a trade. Or use it for a better OFer. Whether it’s using the full 8M, half of it or using that 8 combined with other money to get someone…there were unquestionably better uses for the money and saying it had to be a 1 year deal, when the team said they offered multi year contracts, is absurd.  Maybe if they added 8M onto one of those deals, they get the player signed they wanted?  We don’t know. We do know it’s a dumb use of 8M given the Os situation.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Rather than rehashing for thousandth time the arguments against Frazier, let’s just focus on his defense, which is the topic of the video in the OP.

The numbers suggest Frazier will be a big updgrade over Odor defensively at 2B, though his stats are more in the “solid” category than “outstanding.”  Here are some 2022 and career numbers for his defense at 2B (Odor in parentheses):

OAA: +6 in 2022, +11 career (-5, +22)

UZR: +0.1, +1.5 (-2.9, -13.3)

Rtot: -2, +6 (-13, -11)

Rdrs: 0, +16 (-9, -35)

Here are Frazier’s numbers in the outfield (combined):

OAA: 0, 0

UZR: +1.0, +1.8

Rtot: +4, +7

Rdrs: +2, +9

So, solely from a defective perspective, Frazier should be a big upgrade from Odor at 2B, and also capable of playing well in the OF, while Odor offered no versatility.   

I think he’s probably better defensively than Westburg at 2B, and almost certainly better than Norby.   I think Ortiz probably could match or exceeed him.  

I’m not sure how Urias would do with prolonged exposure at 2B.   He’s played about 40-45 games there over 3 years, to about average results.  Might do better with more regular playing time there.  
 

 

 

But this is the issue. I think we all agree that Frazier should be a good defensive second baseman.  But so should Ortiz. So why spend 8M for something you already have? 
 

 

[Moose Milligan]

It's weird seeing people get all excited for prospects, how great the farm system is and then try to defend a move which blocks the very prospects they're excited about.  

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But this is the issue. I think we all agree that Frazier should be a good defensive second baseman.  But so should Ortiz. So why spend 8M for something you already have? 
 

 

This is what it's all about, IMO.  What does 8 million get us that Ortiz and/or Westburg couldn't get for a fraction of the cost?

If this were prime Roberto Alomar level talent and production, we're not having this conversation.  But he's not, so we are.  

If the argument is defensive flexibility, fine, I guess, but is that worth 8 million to have an average defender out there with declining speed?  I don't think so.  The lefthanded bat is so overrated and weird, I can't even believe that was a reason they signed him.

It's like Frazier is some weird not very good Frankenstein of a player with different skill sets that hypnotized Elias into writing a really large check.  "Left handed hitting second basemen are rare!  And he can play in the outfield, too!  All three things together, I'd pay 2 million apiece for so let's just all roll that into one and throw two more million on top just to be safe!"

[Frobby]

I’m past the point of arguing about whether we should have signed Frazier.  At this point I just want Frazier to be the best version of himself possible.  

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m past the point of arguing about whether we should have signed Frazier.  At this point I just want Frazier to be the best version of himself possible.  

At this point I hope he morphs into Joe Freakin Morgan just out of spite.

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

2) lol…range matters in the OF. If he’s not moving as fast, his range will go down. His OAA showed him to be an average OFer last year. As he gets older and slower, that’s not likely to be the case. Thats just common sense.

Range matters. How much sprint speed has to do with range is the question. Do you think Franchy Cordero, Jorge Alfaro and JT Realmuto would have better range in the OF than Mullins? 

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is now becoming a trend. Bad in the shortened 2020 season (only means so much)…mediocre at best in the second half of the 2021 season and bad last year. That’s about a 3 year stretch of pretty subpar baseball outside of the first half of 2021.

That's not how trends work. The "first half" of 2021 (try 100 games) was very good. 2020 was fluky for a lot of players. 2018 and 2019 were quite good. You won't get any argument out of me that 2022 was bad but a bounceback seems likely. His 2020 and 2022 BABIPs were every bit as fluky as his 2021 was. 

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m 100% convinced that if the Os decided to hand Westburg the job that you wouldn’t feel this way. You are fine with this signing because the Os did it and you will praise them for it.  I think Westburg is just as likely to be a 2 WAR guy as Frazier and maybe he’s more likely.

I want Westburg to play or be traded. I just don't think Frazier has as much of an impact on that as you. The Orioles cannot lose as many games in April and May as they did last year. Having vets on the team lessens the burden of having to rely on rookies right away. Easy concept. 

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe if they added 8M onto one of those deals, they get the player signed they wanted?  We don’t know.

Exactly. We don't. All we have is the evidence that they have never agreed to terms with a player on a multi year deal since JA has taken over. OF seems to be every bit as loaded as the INF. Cowser is a better prospect than any of the IFs actually. I can't imagine you wouldn't be complaining if they spent like 7 mil on Duvall like the Sox did. Pitching, fine. But is over paying #3-4 starters by almost 10 mil really a smart business strategy? Houston never operated that way. 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's weird seeing people get all excited for prospects, how great the farm system is and then try to defend a move which blocks the very prospects they're excited about.  

There is no logic behind it. It’s all about one thing…Elias signed him, so we agree with it. Thats it.

If the Yankees signed him, the same people praising the signing would be laughing at the Yankees for doing it.

And if Elias said, no I want to start Westburg, everyone doubting him would be saying that’s the right thing to do.