Hall of Fame election announcement - 6pm

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/a-glimmer-of-hope-for-scott-rolen-and-todd-helton/

Jaffe's final preview hours before the reveal has a shutout likely - Rolen, Helton and Billy Wagner look like top vote getters this cycle, if one can join the committee's Fred McGriff this summer.

Rolen getting very close, and will have Beltre and Wright joining him on ballot next year, as "the guys before Manny Machado" get their weighing and measuring.

[Just Regular]

Rolen at 70 career WAR gains election.

Manny having finished his Age 29 season 52/70ths of the way to Rolen.

Rolen enters with 9th Highest Career WAR by Position since 1920 - the "9th string" of last century of baseball:

C Mauer, 55.2

1B, McCovey, 64.5

2B, Alomar, 67.0

SS, Reese, 68.4

3B, Rolen, 70.1

LF, Stargell, 57.5

CF, Ashburn, 64.2

RF, Gwynn, 69.2

Edited January 24 by Just Regular

[Moose Milligan]

Happy for Rolen, he was a great player.  

Beltre is a lock for next year.  I think Mauer has a sneaky shot at getting in.  WAR doesn't really tell the story, especially for a catcher.  3 batting titles as a catcher is pretty remarkable, an MVP (in a year where he lead in average, OBP, and slugging), 3 Gold Gloves...it's an impressive resume for a catcher.  He was the preeminent catcher in the game for his era.  I don't know if he's a slam dunk first ballot guy, but I think he gets in eventually.

And I hope Wagner makes it, too.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Happy for Rolen, he was a great player.  

Beltre is a lock for next year.  I think Mauer has a sneaky shot at getting in.  WAR doesn't really tell the story, especially for a catcher.  3 batting titles as a catcher is pretty remarkable, an MVP (in a year where he lead in average, OBP, and slugging), 3 Gold Gloves...it's an impressive resume for a catcher.  He was the preeminent catcher in the game for his era.  I don't know if he's a slam dunk first ballot guy, but I think he gets in eventually.

And I hope Wagner makes it, too.

Yeah, Beltre for sure.

Agree on Mauer.  See JustRegular's post above - the 9th best WAR at every other position the last 103 years has been inducted to HOF, and Mauer is  #9 at catcher in that time frame.  Add to that the MVP, GGs, and batting titles you mentioned.  Top catcher of his day.  Deserves HOF enshrinement, IMO.

[Moose Milligan]

The Keith Hernandez fans are out in droves today, rightfully so.  Hernandez seems to be the 1B equivalent to Rolen in a lot of ways.  

I think they don't understand that the problem with the booger sugar is what got in the way.  

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The Keith Hernandez fans are out in droves today, rightfully so.  Hernandez seems to be the 1B equivalent to Rolen in a lot of ways.  

I think they don't understand that the problem with the booger sugar is what got in the way.  

Rolen was a better overall player.   It’s a lot easier to find offense at 1B.   

I know you hate WAR-based HOF arguments, but let’s just say that 70 WAR players are almost all in the HOF (58 of 69 players) unless there’s some off-the-field factor in play.   Players in the 60-69 range are much more of a 50/50 proposition (30 of 55) and Hernandez is near the bottom of that scale.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Rolen was a better overall player.   It’s a lot easier to find offense at 1B.   

I know you hate WAR-based HOF arguments, but let’s just say that 70 WAR players are almost all in the HOF (58 of 69 players) unless there’s some off-the-field factor in play.   Players in the 60-69 range are much more of a 50/50 proposition (30 of 55) and Hernandez is near the bottom of that scale.  
 

Yes, Rolen was better overall.  I should have mentioned that the Hernandez supporters on twitter that I've seen don't seem to have much nuance for their arguments.  It's simply based on slash lines, career hit totals and awards, not taking account into the 1b/3b differences.  From that view, they're similar.

And I do hate WAR based HOF arguments when that's all that everyone wants to do...look at a WAR total, judge from there.  While that probably makes things cut and dry, it doesn't always tell the whole story.

I am 50-50 on whether Hernandez gets into the Hall.  I'd be happy for him because I like him but I also don't think that the Hall is hurting because Keith Hernandez isn't in it.

But back to your argument about WAR based arguments and my belief that they don't tell the whole story...well, yeah, they don't.  Hardware matters and Hernandez has a good amount of it...an MVP finish, an MVP runner up, 11 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers and a batting title.  I would like to see the list of people that have an MVP and 10+ gold gloves that are not in the Hall of Fame.  Or simply 10+ Gold Gloves and not in the Hall of Fame, scrap the MVP award.  I can't believe there are many.  Off the top of my head, Omar Vizquel is one and he was gaining steam towards the Hall each year but with his off the field issues that seems to be a pipe dream for him now.

If the argument against Hernandez is that he didn't hit for much power at a position that traditionally provides power, that's fine.  Can't argue against that.  But he was one of the best 1st baseman of his day and I do believe that he fell off the ballot because of his coke issues, not because he didn't warrant serious consideration based on what he did on the field.

 

 

[Number5]

I think Hernandez is kept out because not everyone believes he was just a patsy in the magic loogie incident.  Some still believe he was a lone spitter.

[EdwinRip]

I find the baseball hall of fame a complete joke since they now pick and choose which players shouldn’t get votes because of steroid use/peds. I find it humorous that Gary Sheffield received 55% of the vote and Arod 35%.  Bonds, arod, Clemens, etc should all be in the hall.  It is designed for the best players.  Feel free to write anything they want on their plaque, but the performance on the field was undeniable.  I also don’t find it a coincidence that all 3 players are universal hated and a blind eye is turned to big pappi and others who have connections/suspicions because they are universally beloved.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

I find the baseball hall of fame a complete joke since they now pick and choose which players shouldn’t get votes because of steroid use/peds. I find it humorous that Gary Sheffield received 55% of the vote and Arod 35%.  Bonds, arod, Clemens, etc should all be in the hall.  It is designed for the best players.  Feel free to write anything they want on their plaque, but the performance on the field was undeniable.  I also don’t find it a coincidence that all 3 players are universal hated and a blind eye is turned to big pappi and others who have connections/suspicions because they are universally beloved.

I kind of enjoy tormenting them.  Put them in after they’re dead.   

[EdwinRip]

I’m perfectly fine with that take.  I just don’t find any consistency.  It’s also a shame that most hall of fames have really bad people inducted but god forbid a ped user get inducted in baseball. Look at Ty Cobb, Kirby Puckett, oj Simpson, Lawrence Taylor, Jim brown….I could go on.  Also, many of these bad human beings are not merely in the hall of fame but any wrong doings are completely glossed over. Also many baseball hall of famers have admitted to using amphetamines and other methods to gain an advantage.  Again, I just don’t see any consistency in how this is applied.

[Just Regular]

Jay Jaffe's takedown on a few of the oddball ballots contributing to Helton's near miss this cycle.     I think the only K-Rod one my favorite, but the man did save 62 games one year, and was also a hot reliever rental for the 2013 Orioles the year before Andrew Miller.

Certainly it would have been nice, and better for the candidates just below him in the rankings, if another 11 voters could have found room for Helton. As I noted on Tuesday, the eight blank ballots that were cast weren’t enough to prevent him from getting to 75%, but when you factor in the seven one-candidate ballots already in the Tracker — ballots that feel like performance-art pieces (only K-Rod? Only A-Rod? Only Sheffield? These all happened!) designed to call attention to the voter — then yes, these miserly ballots did block Helton’s election. Take away those 15 ballots and you have a total of 374, 75% of which is 280.5; Helton got 281 votes. In other words, he’d have spot on the stage this summer if not for those outliers.

[CharmCityHokie]

On 1/25/2023 at 9:08 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Happy for Rolen, he was a great player.  

Beltre is a lock for next year.  I think Mauer has a sneaky shot at getting in.  WAR doesn't really tell the story, especially for a catcher.  3 batting titles as a catcher is pretty remarkable, an MVP (in a year where he lead in average, OBP, and slugging), 3 Gold Gloves...it's an impressive resume for a catcher.  He was the preeminent catcher in the game for his era.  I don't know if he's a slam dunk first ballot guy, but I think he gets in eventually.

And I hope Wagner makes it, too.

I hope Billy Wagner makes it too, he just has such a fascinating story and had such a unique talent. And as someone who went to school in southwest VA, and is familiar with the area he came from, it's amazing he made it to the level he did, especially pre-internet days. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/billy-wagner-went-from-div-iii-to-mlb-with-magic-fastball

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I hope Billy Wagner makes it too, he just has such a fascinating story and had such a unique talent. And as someone who went to school in southwest VA, and is familiar with the area he came from, it's amazing he made it to the level he did, especially pre-internet days. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/billy-wagner-went-from-div-iii-to-mlb-with-magic-fastball

I saw a stat somewhere, Billy Wagner could come out of retirement and allow 100 hits in 100 at bats and he'd just match Rivera's batting average against.

 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I saw a stat somewhere, Billy Wagner could come out of retirement and allow 100 hits in 100 at bats and he'd just match Rivera's batting average against.

 

Maybe, but Rivera could come out of retirement and walk the next 285 batters in a row and he’d still match Wagner’s BB/9.   And in either case, that would be a really long game!