Hall of Fame election announcement - 6pm

[Moose Milligan]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe, but Rivera could come out of retirement and walk the next 285 batters in a row and he’d still match Wagner’s BB/9.   And in either case, that would be a really long game!

Yeah, but Wagner 11.9 K/9 > Rivera 8.2 K/9

[Frobby]

On 1/26/2023 at 11:16 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, but Wagner 11.9 K/9 > Rivera 8.2 K/9

Simple question: it’s game 7 of the World Series and you’re holding a 1-run lead in the 9th.  Which of the two pitchers would you choose?

[Moose Milligan]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Simple question: it’s game 7 of the World Series and you’re holding a 1-run lead in the 9th.  Which of the two pitchers would you choose?

Wagner. 
 

 

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Wagner. 
 

 

Not me.  89% save rate for Rivera, 86% for Wagner.   

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not me.  89% save rate for Rivera, 86% for Wagner.   

Yeah but if I were managing Rivera that means I’d be managing the Yankees and I’m not interested in that. 
 

Checkmate, Froberto.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah but if I were managing Rivera that means I’d be managing the Yankees and I’m not interested in that. 
 

Checkmate, Froberto.

OK, you win!   Not that I’d want to manage the Phillies, either.  

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, you win!   Not that I’d want to manage the Phillies, either.  

Yeah but he played for more teams than just the Phillies! There’s some options here. 

[Just Regular]

On 1/24/2023 at 5:22 PM, Just Regular said:

Rolen getting very close, and will have Beltre and Wright joining him on ballot next year, as "the guys before Manny Machado" get their weighing and measuring.

Interesting graphic on the 3B group during a review of David Wright's case:

Wright career 1585 games at 5.0 WAR/162

Rolen career 2038 games at 5.6 WAR/162

Beltre career 2933 games at 5.2 WAR/162

Manny this winter sitting at 1583 games at 5.6 WAR/162, setting him basically having put out David Wright's career 10% better so far.

Results tomorrow night at 6pm - Mauer looking strong, Billy Wagner the toss-up.     Gary Sheffield getting a Year 10 on the ballot surge.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I haven't checked Thibodeaux's tracker until just now.  

Beltre, Helton, Mauer look to be locks to get a call tonight.  Wagner's there at 77.8% but, IIRC, the margin for error here trends a little high when it comes to voters that make their ballots public vs. ones that don't.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Wagner fall a few votes short.  Sheffield is there at 74.9%, I think he probably falls a bit short too...which is a shame.

Andruw Jones is at 70%, Jackson Holliday's dad is at 1.0%,  Carlos Beltran at 66.7%, A-Rod at 39.1%

[Just Regular]

Pretty good start for Chase Utley, a player whose results in time may influence how various committees look at Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker.

Next year Wagner should waltz, and the interesting CC Sabathia discussion around what a SP can or needs to do begins.

The BP analyst's Utley notes.    They also guessed 2026 could be a CF Pair in Andruw and Beltran, similar to this year's One Team Pair in Mauer and Helton.

As a first-time candidate this year, Utley received 28.8 percent of the vote. That may not seem terribly impressive (it’s barely more than a third of what he needs for induction), but it’s a very strong showing for a first-year candidate. The only candidates on this year’s ballot who received a higher percentage of the vote in their first year and have not yet been inducted are Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and Omar Vizquel—all of whom have extenuating issues—and Beltrán, who appears to be on pace for induction. Utley received a larger share of the vote in his first year than recent inductees Todd Helton (16.5 percent), Scott Rolen (10.2), Larry Walker (20.3), Mike Mussina (20.3), and Tim Raines (24.3), not to mention Wagner (10.5) and Jones (7.3), who also seem to be on track.

Edited January 24 by Just Regular

[Just Regular]

Verducci on MLB Network had a cool stat on the Mauer MVP year....he flew out to the right fielder just twice all season long.

Then they had a highlight reel of young Scherzer trying to work him inside, and he would still just carve out singles to LF and CF.

[Just Regular]

Adley Watch - by coincidence he's played 1.75 seasons, and Jay Jaffe's JAWS method uses a player's best 7 seasons (can be non-consecutive) as their peak.

It is fairly likely that what is already in the book and the next 5 will be his best.     B-Ref gives Adley 9.6 WAR for that first 25% of a 7-year chunk, so it'd prorate to ~38.5 if the next 5 years generally resemble the first two.

That 7-year peak would fall into the middle of the range like Pudge 39, Mauer 39, (Adley ~38.5), Yogi 38, Pudge 37

Now, can he spoil us with another gear anywhere in these next few seasons?    Yogi Berra went nuts in the MVP races of his day - he ran off 3-1-4-2-1-1-2 finishes from 1950-1956.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Adley Watch - by coincidence he's played 1.75 seasons, and Jay Jaffe's JAWS method uses a player's best 7 seasons (can be non-consecutive) as their peak.

It is fairly likely that what is already in the book and the next 5 will be his best.     B-Ref gives Adley 9.6 WAR for that first 25% of a 7-year chunk, so it'd prorate to ~38.5 if the next 5 years generally resemble the first two.

That 7-year peak would fall into the middle of the range like Pudge 39, Mauer 39, (Adley ~38.5), Yogi 38, Pudge 37

Now, can he spoil us with another gear anywhere in these next few seasons?    Yogi Berra went nuts in the MVP races of his day - he ran off 3-1-4-2-1-1-2 finishes from 1950-1956.

Mauer was in his fourth season when Adley debuted.

He's also the first member of the HoF born in the 80's and the second youngest living HoF member that had to wait for the five eyar waiting period.

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mauer was in his fourth season when Adley debuted.

He's also the first member of the HoF born in the 80's and the second youngest living HoF member that had to wait for the five eyar waiting period.

Yea, Mauer put up 20 wins fast.     Its interesting to look at player splits for 0-25, 26-30, etc.

Surveying 12 great catchers: Gibson, Bench, Carter, Rodriguez, Fisk, Piazza, Berra, Mauer, Dickey, Munson, Adley, Posey

Gibson, Bench, Mauer and Munson's careers all ended before they passed age 35.     Adley's now closed out his 0-25 segment....he's only a few rWAR behind Fisk, Piazza, Berra, Dickey and Posey with his prime (if it isn't already over) set to begin.      Because covid, his joints may be a little fresher on the million squats odometer.

Today was my first time looking at the WAR/650 PA on Josh Gibson - they extrapolate to ~10 rWAR per MLB length season.    He was born 8 years before Jackie, and ~25 before Hank and Frank.

Fisk has more Age 35+ rWAR than the rest of the group combined.     In the category of it was good to be the '27 Yankees, that was the year before Bill Dickey made his MLB debut.      Dickey-Berra-Munson-Posada is a mighty fine lineage.

The through Age 25 per 650 PA readouts:

Gibson 9.9, Fisk 6.8, Posey 6.5, Piazza 6.3

Bench 5.9, Adley 5.4, Carter 5.3, Mauer 5.3

Munson 5.1, Rodriguez 4.6, Dickey 4.3, Berra 4.0

[NedFromYork]

Got back in to card collecting, with focus on HOF rookie card.  Picked up Palmer and Fisk(Cecil Cooper) rookies last weekend after picking up Morgan up a while back.  Going to try to get Beltre, Mauer, Helton) this week.

Edited January 24 by NedFromYork