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Orioles Acquire LHP Cole Irvin from the A's for Darrel Hernaiz

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Posted by Tony-OH,

BLUF: Elias acquired a legitimate left-handed starting pitcher for a tweener prospect that plays a position of organizational depth. Analysis: The first place I go to when the Orioles acquire a big league pitcher is Baseball savant to look at his stuff and on first look, if you go by his 2022 percentiles it doesn't look very good. But when you look at the results, things look a lot better: The next step with to try and figure out how he has success and what jumped out a

My Take on the trade with a scouting report on Irvin

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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I see Irvin as the O's 7th best starter to begin the season.    Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson, Wells and Voth are all better IMO.   Camden Yards is not the Coliseum where Irvin did his best pitching in a large park.   And the 2021-22 AL West didn't have nearly as many good teams as he would see in the 2023 AL East.   Holt will help Irvin but that does not mean he will be better than the 6 starters ahead of him.

I am not saying this is a bad trade.  It offers pitching depth in case of injury and non performance.  Gibson, Kremer and Bradish all project for about 30 starts.   Grayson and Wells don't.  But Voth, Means and Hall  can fill those starts later in the season.  And those three are all better than Irvin.

I can see Holt making adjustment to Irvin's pitches and pitch mix in ST.  Irvin could beginning the season in AAA (he has an option) or as a long man in the pen.   How he adjusts will tell how many innings he gets in the majors IMO.

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

BLUF: Elias acquired a legitimate left-handed starting pitcher for a tweener prospect that plays a position of organizational depth. Analysis: The first place I go to when the Orioles acquire a b

sportsfan8703
sportsfan8703

Yup. Good take. Who says that we can’t mix and match Voth/Wells in depending on matchups?  A platoon back of the rotation?  Flexibility. Elias has been preaching that.    We matched up Wei Yen

TommyPickles
TommyPickles

If he had been in the Os rotation last year he would have ranked: 1st in IP 2nd in WAR 3rd in ERA

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see Irvin as the O's 7th best starter to begin the season.    Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson, Wells and Voth are all better IMO.   Camden Yards is not the Coliseum where Irvin did his best pitching in a large park.   And the 2021-22 AL West didn't have nearly as many good teams as he would see in the 2023 AL East.   Holt will help Irvin but that does not mean he will be better than the 6 starters ahead of him.

I am not saying this is a bad trade.  It offers pitching depth in case of injury and non performance.  Gibson, Kremer and Bradish all project for about 30 starts.   Grayson and Wells don't.  But Voth, Means and Hall  can fill those starts later in the season.  And those three are all better than Irvin.

I can see Holt making adjustment to Irvin's pitches and pitch mix in ST.  Irvin could beginning the season in AAA (he has an option) or as a long man in the pen.   How he adjusts will tell how many innings he gets in the majors IMO.

He's in the OD starting rotation.  Believing anything else is a delusion.

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see Irvin as the O's 7th best starter to begin the season.    Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson, Wells and Voth are all better IMO.   Camden Yards is not the Coliseum where Irvin did his best pitching in a large park.   And the 2021-22 AL West didn't have nearly as many good teams as he would see in the 2023 AL East.   Holt will help Irvin but that does not mean he will be better than the 6 starters ahead of him.

I am not saying this is a bad trade.  It offers pitching depth in case of injury and non performance.  Gibson, Kremer and Bradish all project for about 30 starts.   Grayson and Wells don't.  But Voth, Means and Hall  can fill those starts later in the season.  And those three are all better than Irvin.

I can see Holt making adjustment to Irvin's pitches and pitch mix in ST.  Irvin could beginning the season in AAA (he has an option) or as a long man in the pen.   How he adjusts will tell how many innings he gets in the majors IMO.

 

Grayson hasn't pitched an inning in the majors

Wells numbers were much better out of the pen as a rookie, so he probably helps the team more in that role.

Voth was solid for us last season, but averaged under 5 innings per start, Irvin averaged over 6 innings

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oriole Veteran All-Star

oriole

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see Irvin as the O's 7th best starter to begin the season.    Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson, Wells and Voth are all better IMO.   Camden Yards is not the Coliseum where Irvin did his best pitching in a large park.   And the 2021-22 AL West didn't have nearly as many good teams as he would see in the 2023 AL East.   Holt will help Irvin but that does not mean he will be better than the 6 starters ahead of him.

I am not saying this is a bad trade.  It offers pitching depth in case of injury and non performance.  Gibson, Kremer and Bradish all project for about 30 starts.   Grayson and Wells don't.  But Voth, Means and Hall  can fill those starts later in the season.  And those three are all better than Irvin.

I can see Holt making adjustment to Irvin's pitches and pitch mix in ST.  Irvin could beginning the season in AAA (he has an option) or as a long man in the pen.   How he adjusts will tell how many innings he gets in the majors IMO.

I don’t get why some think he will be a swing man yet Gibson is our Opening Day starter. Last year Irvin beat out Gibson in IP, H9, BB9, and HR9…He is an innings eater and the only real left handed option until Means comes back or Hall figures out what a strike zone is. 
 

The home/away splits are a bit concerning, but luckily he’ll play half his games with a wall in left that is only rivaled by the Wall of Westeros. He got lefties out at a respectable rate and the biggest difference in his splits came from righties slugging at a higher rate…which will likely come down playing at Camden Yards. 
 

A more balanced schedule in 2023 means less starts vs the AL East juggernauts. And Wells and Voth are definitely not going to be eating innings like Irvin would. I just think there’s a lot to like (but nothing to love) about the move.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He's in the OD starting rotation.  Believing anything else is a delusion.

Why? Because he is a better pitcher than the other 6 starters I mentioned?   I don't think so.   Because of his salary?  He makes the minimum.    Because of his experience?  He has very little  experience pitching in the AL East.

In ST he is going to have to show he is one the 5 best starters on the team.   I don't think he will.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why? Because he is a better pitcher than the other 6 starters I mentioned?   I don't think so.   Because of his salary?  He makes the minimum.    Because of his experience?  He has very little  experience pitching in the AL East.

In ST he is going to have to show he is one the 5 best starters on the team.   I don't think he will.

Obviously Elias is looking at more things than just which six are the better pitchers.

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clapdiddy Hangout Grand Counsel

clapdiddy

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why? Because he is a better pitcher than the other 6 starters I mentioned?   I don't think so.   Because of his salary?  He makes the minimum.    Because of his experience?  He has very little  experience pitching in the AL East.

In ST he is going to have to show he is one the 5 best starters on the team.   I don't think he will.

Quite honestly, you should have been saying the same thing about Gibson, yet you included him in your "better pitchers" list.  Despite his splits, he's still a better pitcher than Gibson.  He's thrown over 350 innings over the last 2 years, so he has the ability to go deep into games and keep his team in the game. 

Kremer and Bradish, while promising, are still an unknown quantity.  GRod hasn't thrown 1 inning in the majors.   Voth has thrown over 100 innings in a season exactly once. 

Adding Irvin give them a solid back of the rotation guy that will keep the team in games and give them innings. 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

Grayson hasn't pitched an inning in the majors

Wells numbers were much better out of the pen as a rookie, so he probably helps the team more in that role.

Voth was solid for us last season, but averaged under 5 innings per start, Irvin averaged over 6 innings

Grayson will probably have the best stuff on any starter in camp.

 The pen has Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, Givens, Voth, Akin and a competition between Politi, Krehbiel and Irvin for the last spot.  Wells is probably needed more in the rotation.

Irvin pitched away from the Coliseum to an ERA of 5.26.  He is not pitching in the Coliseum any more.   Voth ERA was 3.04.

It doesn't matter how many innings Irvin can pitch if he can't pitch them well.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Grayson will probably have the best stuff on any starter in camp.

 The pen has Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, Givens, Voth, Akin and a competition between Politi, Krehbiel and Irvin for the last spot.  Wells is probably needed more in the rotation.

Irvin pitched away from the Coliseum to an ERA of 5.26.  He is not pitching in the Coliseum any more.   Voth ERA was 3.04.

It doesn't matter how many innings Irvin can pitch if he can't pitch them well.

Grayson had the best stuff of any starter in camp last year and got two innings.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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4 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Quite honestly, you should have been saying the same thing about Gibson, yet you included him in your "better pitchers" list.  Despite his splits, he's still a better pitcher than Gibson.  He's thrown over 350 innings over the last 2 years, so he has the ability to go deep into games and keep his team in the game. 

Kremer and Bradish, while promising, are still an unknown quantity.  GRod hasn't thrown 1 inning in the majors.   Voth has thrown over 100 innings in a season exactly once. 

Adding Irvin give them a solid back of the rotation guy that will keep the team in games and give them innings. 

Gibson is being paid 10m, has no options and he was an All-Star in 2021 with a 2.87 ERA in Texas.  Pitching in that bandbox in Philly hurt his ERA.

Irvin gives the O'a a solid 7th starter.   Its will take some of the things you are concerned about to come true to get him in the rotation IMO.

 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, wildcard said:

Gibson is being paid 10m, has no options and he was an All-Star in 2021 with a 2.87 ERA in Texas.  Pitching in that bandbox in Philly hurt his ERA.

Irvin gives the O'a a solid 7th starter.   Its will take some of the things you are concerned about to come true to get him in the rotation IMO.

 

So?

ERA is a flawed stat, why are you even mentioning it?

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