FG’s Longenhagen top Os prospect list..Cowser at 12!

[deward]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He was the #1 pick. #1 picks who live up to their potential move fast, HS or not.

He absolutely should be in the majors by 2025. If he is struggling to hit in the lower minors, he was over drafted.

Who said anything about struggling to hit in the lower minors? He could be progressing nicely and still follow a track that puts his ETA as Opening Day 2026. I'm expecting him to move fast, because he seems prepared to do so, but I'm pushing back on the idea that a 2026 debut makes him a bust. That's far too absolute.

[SpOkane]

He has Povich #8.  Must be talking to Kiley a lot.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, deward said:

Who said anything about struggling to hit in the lower minors? He could be progressing nicely and still follow a track that puts his ETA as Opening Day 2026. I'm expecting him to move fast, because he seems prepared to do so, but I'm pushing back on the idea that a 2026 debut makes him a bust. That's far too absolute.

He’s a bust in terms of a #1 pick. He may end up being a good player but he won’t be some elite talent, which is normally what the #1 pick brings you.

[RZNJ]

Hard to believe Cowser is #12.   I think he'll prove Longehagen very wrong on that one.   Some odd slots.   Why Leando Arias at #17?   I like it but how does he put him that high based on ?? not much?

I can see Mayo at #4 based on upside but Mayo has as much or more to prove than Cowser, IMO.    I don't think I've ever seen Mayo drive a ball to RF.

[deward]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s a bust in terms of a #1 pick. He may end up being a good player but he won’t be some elite talent, which is normally what the #1 pick brings you.

The average career WAR of a #1 overall pick is 19.3 (per BA from an article last June). For context, Eric Hosmer's career WAR is 19.1. If your expectation is an elite player, then you're more likely to be disappointed than not. A good player would be a great outcome.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Riley had some defensive issues iirc and he wasn’t picked #1.

I know he wasn’t picked no. 1.   But he’s likely to be a better player than most who were.  

[btdart20]

38 minutes ago, SpOkane said:

He has Povich #8.  Must be talking to Kiley a lot.

Not necessarily.  Povich will likely be outside of the FG top 100.

[btdart20]

A bunch of eye candy!  Is it ST yet?!  Let's GO!

 

[RZNJ]

Holliday looks to be one of the most advanced hitters in terms of plate discipline that we've ever drafted, college or HS.   I suspect he easily makes it to Aberdeen this year with a good chance for some time in Bowie.   That makes 2024 a year where he likely starts at Bowie, at worst, and finishes at Norfolk.    He might not make 2025 OD for either service time reasons or developmental reasons but I would be disappointed and surprised if he wasn't up by May/June of 2025 based on what he showed last year and the present buzz on him by the scouting "experts".   He'll be 21 in 2025, same age as Cal, Eddie, and Gunnar when they made their debuts.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know he wasn’t picked no. 1.   But he’s likely to be a better player than most who were.  

But where he was picked matters w/r/t the time table. That’s the point.  Elias didn’t take him #1 thinking he’s in the minors for 3 or 4 years.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Holliday looks to be one of the most advanced hitters in terms of plate discipline that we've ever drafted, college or HS.   I suspect he easily makes it to Aberdeen this year with a good chance for some time in Bowie.   That makes 2024 a year where he likely starts at Bowie, at worst, and finishes at Norfolk.    He might not make 2025 OD for either service time reasons or developmental reasons but I would be disappointed and surprised if he wasn't up by May/June of 2025 based on what he showed last year and the present buzz on him by the scouting "experts".   He'll be 21 in 2025, same age as Cal, Eddie, and Gunnar when they made their debuts.

While I don’t think it happens, I wouldn’t be shocked if he starts the year in Aberdeen.

My guess is he is Delmarva for 4-8 weeks and then Aberdeen with a shot at AA this year..assuming health of course.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

While I don’t think it happens, I wouldn’t be shocked if he starts the year in Aberdeen.

My guess is he is Delmarva for 4-8 weeks and then Aberdeen with a shot at AA this year..assuming health of course.

Yeah, I think he's probably more advanced than most of the college guys that will probably start at Aberdeen.   You can make the case that that's the right level for him but I doubt it happens as well.   A guy like Carter Young probably starts at Aberdeen while Holliday starts at Delmarva and I have little doubt that Holliday is a more advanced hitter right now.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s a bust in terms of a #1 pick. He may end up being a good player but he won’t be some elite talent, which is normally what the #1 pick brings you.

It’s not really normally what it brings you.  It’s what you hope for.  Your odds are better at no. 1 than anywhere else, but still well under 50%.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s not really normally what it brings you.  It’s what you hope for.  Your odds are better at no. 1 than anywhere else, but still well under 50%.   

Sure..which goes back to what I’m saying.  Btw, lots of HS #1 picks put up HOF level careers, not just above average.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, I think he's probably more advanced than most of the college guys that will probably start at Aberdeen.   You can make the case that that's the right level for him but I doubt it happens as well.   A guy like Carter Young probably starts at Aberdeen while Holliday starts at Delmarva and I have little doubt that Holliday is a more advanced hitter right now.

Honestly, if you told me right now that he could put up a 650 OPS in the majors this year I wouldn’t be surprised.