Elias makes two things clear; 1st base and Irvin

[maybenxtyr]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Is he also aware that Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are probably going to turn back into pumpkins for 81 games this season? There's no scenario where this team contends with sh*tty pitching, no matter how far back they move the fences. 

Even though they contended last season with similar pitching?

[HakunaSakata]

7 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Even though they contended last season with similar pitching?

Seemed a little flukish to me, but I hope I'm wrong. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Is he also aware that Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are probably going to turn back into pumpkins for 81 games this season? There's no scenario where this team contends with sh*tty pitching, no matter how far back they move the fences. 

Gibson was pretty much a pumpkin last season.   81 ERA+, 2nd worst of his career.  

[Moose Milligan]

9 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

The one thing that's interesting about the strategy of altering the ballpark to better accommodate mediocre pitchers is that it doesn't take into account the fact that they still have to pitch half of their games on the road. And the whole idea of our motivation for the modification also being to better attract good free agent pitchers doesn't seem to hold much water either since we don't seem to be willing to pay the going rate for any credible pitchers anyway.  And as someone else pointed out, there's also the negative effect of offense suppression on the team. 10 years from now I have a feeling we're going to look back on the ballpark change as a failed gimmicky short cut that didn't work. I guess time will tell though...

So you’re a “glass half empty” kinda guy. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

So you’re a “glass half empty” kinda guy. 

Thank goodness I didn't post this earlier on the week on National Optimist Day (Feb 2nd).  

[duffman003]

13 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

The one thing that's interesting about the strategy of altering the ballpark to better accommodate mediocre pitchers is that it doesn't take into account the fact that they still have to pitch half of their games on the road. And the whole idea of our motivation for the modification also being to better attract good free agent pitchers doesn't seem to hold much water either since we don't seem to be willing to pay the going rate for any credible pitchers anyway.  And as someone else pointed out, there's also the negative effect of offense suppression on the team. 10 years from now I have a feeling we're going to look back on the ballpark change as a failed gimmicky short cut that didn't work. I guess time will tell though...

I assumed Elias was trying to get more outs to help not abuse the bullpen as much. Lets say the new dimensions allow the starters to average .5 more outs per start. That's 40 less outs we need from the bullpen, which helps us not play AAA roulette with whoever has options to fill out the extra innings. 

 

Maybe the possible extra rest for the bullpen will add another win or two for the year. Although, it doesn't seem to help the A's very much.

[waroriole]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Gibson was pretty much a pumpkin last season.   81 ERA+, 2nd worst of his career.  

He was pretty good until September. At the end of August he had a 4.08 ERA. Similarly, Irvin had a 3.35 ERA at the end of August. I wonder if Elias and his team identified what caused their collapse and that was one of the reasons they were targeted. 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He was pretty good until September. At the end of August he had a 4.08 ERA. Similarly, Irvin had a 3.35 ERA at the end of August. I wonder if Elias and his team identified what caused their collapse and that was one of the reasons they were targeted. 

Gibson is a notorious first half performer and second half fader.   There’s a lot less to go on with Irvin but he’s been better in the first half as well.   

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He was pretty good until September. At the end of August he had a 4.08 ERA. Similarly, Irvin had a 3.35 ERA at the end of August. I wonder if Elias and his team identified what caused their collapse and that was one of the reasons they were targeted. 

These are both great points. In a way, their terrible Septembers allowed us to acquire them more cheaply. I think with a strong bullpen, and a winning mindset, will limit their workloads. 
 

Let’s face it, our bullpen allowed our SP last year to outperform anyone’s wildest predictions. We saw this same recipe with the DD teams. We have good bullpen and good SP depth. 
 

Workload management. Just like the NBA. Just like having two RBs in the NFL. 

[emmett16]

21 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Mr. Somewhere might be better.

I don’t know, after the third or fourth fly ball inexplicably lands in front of Stowers while playing OF I have a feeling some posters will be calling for his head.  

[Yardball85]

23 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Profar can play 1B and COF. Just sayin…

Poor use of resources IMO, unless you can get him for under $5M a season, which you can't.  Profar/Frazier money should have been used on better starting pitching but I digress. 

[HakunaSakata]

42 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

These are both great points. In a way, their terrible Septembers allowed us to acquire them more cheaply. I think with a strong bullpen, and a winning mindset, will limit their workloads. 
 

Let’s face it, our bullpen allowed our SP last year to outperform anyone’s wildest predictions. We saw this same recipe with the DD teams. We have good bullpen and good SP depth. 
 

Workload management. Just like the NBA. Just like having two RBs in the NFL. 

Kyle Gibson's failures last season had absolutely nothing to do with workload management. He was bad in May, June and July (i.e., early in the season) and only had two decent months (and five bad ones).  And Irvin's sub 4.00 ERA was mostly smoke and mirrors (xERA 4.33 and xFIP 4.41. These aren't diamonds in the rough. They're, at best, serviceable MLB pitchers and at worst slow burning dumpster fires. I'm hoping for the best, but let's call a spade a spade and stop pretending that Elias is playing 3D chess. 

Kyle GIbson's 2022 Splits (by month)
April  - 5 Starts - 2.93 ERA (good)
May - 5 starts - 4.78 ERA (bad)
June - 5 starts - 5.81 ERA (really bad)
July - 5 starts - 4.94 ERA (bad)
August - 5 starts - 2.30 (good)
September - 5 starts - 9.53 ERA (really bad)
October - 1 start - 10.50 ERA (really bad)

[emmett16]

9 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Poor use of resources IMO, unless you can get him for under $5M a season, which you can't.  Profar/Frazier money should have been used on better starting pitching but I digress. 

I’ve already been hammered on this a bit, but I think Profar fits nicely.  If we are trying to win, prospect development be damned, and are looking to maximize flexibility I think he works well.  I don’t really care about the money, but I think I’d balk at a 2 year deal.  He is an actual lead-off hitter, switch hitter, above avg. back up 1b & can play OF.  I think he makes the team better.  Not ideal or a GameChanger but makes the 2023 team better. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by emmett16

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Poor use of resources IMO, unless you can get him for under $5M a season, which you can't.  Profar/Frazier money should have been used on better starting pitching but I digress. 

I'll go one step further and say there's no scenario where signing Profar makes sense for this team. He's a Jack of all, master of none (both offensively and defensively) and all he would do is potentially block younger player with much more upside. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Kyle Gibson's failures last season had absolutely nothing to do with workload management. He was bad in May, June and July (i.e., early in the season) and only had two decent months (and five bad ones).  And Irvin's sub 4.00 ERA was mostly smoke and mirrors (xERA 4.33 and xFIP 4.41. These aren't diamonds in the rough. They're, at best, serviceable MLB pitchers and at worst slow burning dumpster fires. I'm hoping for the best, but let's call a spade a spade and stop pretending that Elias is playing 3D chess. 

Kyle GIbson's 2022 Splits (by month)
April  - 5 Starts - 2.93 ERA (good)
May - 5 starts - 4.78 ERA (bad)
June - 5 starts - 5.81 ERA (really bad)
July - 5 starts - 4.94 ERA (bad)
August - 5 starts - 2.30 (good)
September - 5 starts - 9.53 ERA (really bad)
October - 1 start - 10.50 ERA (really bad)

I’d say the issue is whether the O’s can get Gibson to perform closer to his historical average than to last year.  Same with Frazier and McCann.