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Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

Sports Guy

By Sports Guy
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Billy F-Face3
Billy F-Face3

Greg Maddux first 2 seasons in the Majors... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml 1986 ERA: 5.52, W:2, L:4, WHIP: 1.774 1987 ERA 5.61, W:6, L:14, WHIP: 1.638

Frobby
Frobby

So you’re declaring Rodriguez a Hall of Fame level pitcher before he’s thrown a pitch in MLB?    There were six pitchers in all of MLB who debuted in 2022 and threw 100+ innings:  George Kir

interloper
interloper

The stuff looks kinda pedestrian. I'm just not seeing that wipe out stuff we were promised. Occasionally the change up dazzles. Fastball kinda sucks IMO. I dunno. I'm super down right now. 

Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Other things I’m looking for:

1) Is his K rate 8 or higher?  

2) Is he missing bats?

3) Can he throw strikes at a league average (usually around 63.5%) or higher rate?

4) can he keep his BB rate at 3.5 or better?

5) K:BB 2 to 1 or better.

I feel if he is doing those things, combined with the numbers I said, we should all feel really good about his long term outlook.

I know many feel good about it anyway but we still need to see it translate on the field in the majors.

 

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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I would be disappointed if the K rate wasn't higher than 9 per 9 IP, based on his minor league numbers.    I think the determining factor with GRod is going to be his fastball command.   If he can keep his walks closer to 2 per 9 IP, I think he'll be really good.   I suspect that they are going to be around 3 or worse.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would be disappointed if the K rate wasn't higher than 9 per 9 IP, based on his minor league numbers.    I think the determining factor with GRod is going to be his fastball command.   If he can keep his walks closer to 2 per 9 IP, I think he'll be really good.   I suspect that they are going to be around 3 or worse.

I’d be disappointed in that long term. But for year 1, where learning curves and stuff like that are there, it wouldn’t bother me if he was in the league average range for a starter.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would be disappointed if the K rate wasn't higher than 9 per 9 IP, based on his minor league numbers.    I think the determining factor with GRod is going to be his fastball command.   If he can keep his walks closer to 2 per 9 IP, I think he'll be really good.   I suspect that they are going to be around 3 or worse.

You look at him last year, he had 14 walks in 56 innings (2.25 per 9) before his injury, then 14 in 19.1 innings when he came back (6.52 per 9).   I think if he’s back to his pre-injury form, his odds of staying under 3.00 are pretty good, though obviously, rookie pitchers tend to have higher BB/9 rates in their debut major league season than they had in the minors.  Whether he’s back to his pre-injury form is an open question, but I see no reason he shouldn’t be.

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HakunaSakata Major Leaguer Rising Star

HakunaSakata

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5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Expecting 125 IP, 3.25 ERA. Reasonably hoping for 2.75.

Not sure why people are being so conservative. 4.00 ERA would be a disappointment for me. Not shocking, but still disappointing. 

Your comment made me curious what the league average ERA was last season. I was shocked to find out is was under 4.00 (3.97). Now I'm wondering if we have any pitchers on our staff, other than Rodriguez, who will be "league average". I'm not so sure...

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