Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Emory Eagle]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know where they were before this game but his statcast numbers are pretty ugly.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/grayson-rodriguez-680570?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Spin rate on FB is low compared to league average, and for curve/slider is approximately exactly league average. I wonder how that compares to his rates in the minors, especially pre-injury.  

Edited May 16, 2023 by Emory Eagle
To correct factual errors in initial post.

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

@Sports GuyI see you laughing. Talk me off the ledge then. Show me why Grayson is a dude even though his statcast looks like a Cool Blue Gatorade. Or why everyone tees off on his supposedly great fastball. Or why he can't command his change or breaking pitches for squat. The best we can say is he had some gritty 5 innings starts where he pitched well against good teams. 

I mean, you see what I see right? His stuff doesn't look good. And his command looks worse. 

The sad thing is this is the best pitcher we've developed in years through our system, and was supposed to be the 2nd coming, the savior.

Like Stowers and Henderson, we all need to hope Grayson figures it out, but for this year, I think we'll see a mixed bag of results and some really disappointing outings like we've already seen.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I know they have been hitting him hard but the 380 BABiP is still unlucky and that won’t stay at that level.

Statcast says .395 wOBA, .360 xwOBA, 4.86 xERA.   So, a bit of back luck on the wOBA/xwOBA, but the gulf between his xERA and his actual ERA is also partly a matter of sequencing.  Letting rallies snowball.  

[Sanity Check]

58 minutes ago, Surhoffan17 said:

If you remember, Bradish was getting lit up on his fastball, and he made improvements on it last year. But I do agree, the secondary stuff from Bradish always looked much better than anything I've seen out of Grayson so far, save for the occasional change up. 

Grayson just needs to add a sweeper and he'll be fine....  

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good synopsis.  It hasn’t all been good and it hasn’t all been bad.   Overall I’m disappointed, but it’s premature to send him back to AAA.

Unlike wildcard, I don’t want to baby him and hide him from Toronto.  He needs a chance to rise to the occasion.  He may fail, but he needs to learn how to bounce back after a crappy outing.   

He needs to learn how to command his pitches.   The team goal is to win.  Sending Grayson to AAA to work on this stuff and bringing up someone else benefits that team and him  Its not babying him.  It managing him and the team for the best outcome.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

"These big league hitters are going to light you up like a pinball machine. You be cocky and arrogant, even when you're getting beat. That's the secret. You gotta play this game with fear and arrogance." Crash Davis.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

He needs to learn how to command his pitches.   The team goal is to win.  Sending Grayson to AAA to work on this stuff and bringing up someone else benefits that team and him  Its not babying him.  It managing him and the team for the best outcome.

 

Are we going to demote every player when they struggle?

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I was laughing because of the “I’m pretty down” comment. You are taking this stuff way too seriously if it’s making you feel down. I can see getting pissed or being excited in the moment but “I’m pretty down” seems to be a “time to take a step back” type thing.

As for his stuff, no I think you are completely wrong. Stuff+ shows his stuff to be very good and I see good stuff. What we don’t see is good command. That’s the issue now…command.

It has nothing to do with with whether his pitches are good enough.

Now, with that said (and I feel the same way about Bradish), I think he throws too many different pitches. I feel he needs to scrap 1-2 of his pitches and throw what he does best. These are coming up with 5 and 6 pitches and it’s just too much.  Master 2-3 pitches first and then you can expand things.

Overall, he is missing bats at about a league average rate for a starter. His str% is slightly below average but not egregiously so.

He has 2 big issues..too many baserunners (more worried about the walks) and too many homers allowed. He is leaving too many pitches over the plate. Solo homers don’t matter that much but when you are letting up almost 2 baserunners per inning, homers become a problem.

Talk of sending him down today is dumb imo. Like really really dumb.

But a few more bad starts like that one and it becomes a real discussion. He’s learning and I would prefer him to do it up here.  The team is 6-2 when he starts, so it’s not like he’s hurting the team, just like Gunnar hasn’t really been hurting the team overall.

It would be nice seeing him come up and perform better immediately but that doesn’t always happen. As fans, you just have to deal with it and the fans that booed him last night should be throat punched.

 

I know this dude has me on ignore (Haha! LOL) but this is a spot on post about mastering 2-3 pitches before trying to throw 4-5.   I see Rodriguez throwing a splitter, slider, curve, and changeup, all inconsistently.  Can we start with mastering the fastball/changeup and go from there?

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Are we going to demote every player when they struggle?

Depends.  Do they have options?  Is there a replacement ready?

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

The sad thing is this is the best pitcher we've developed in years through our system, and was supposed to be the 2nd coming, the savior.

Like Stowers and Henderson, we all need to hope Grayson figures it out, but for this year, I think we'll see a mixed bag of results and some really disappointing outings like we've already seen.

Anyone who expected the second coming deserves the disappointment that comes along with it.

[Sanity Check]

My personal opinion....Grayson has been fairly dominant everywhere he's pitched.  Not totally dominant, but fairly dominant.  Most times, he got by on throwing hard, stuff and over-matching hitters.  And it worked for him at those levels.  At the lower levels, mistakes aren't punished like they are in the big leagues.

Hopefully he's learning that he needs to "execute" every pitch, and if he doesn't, it might just get crushed.  I think he's got the ability to overcome what we're seeing, and realize he can't just rely on throwing it hard to get out of trouble.  He's learning this the hard way.  I'll keep my faith, but at this level, you can't keep doing the same thing and hope for different results.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He needs to learn how to command his pitches.   The team goal is to win.  Sending Grayson to AAA to work on this stuff and bringing up someone else benefits that team and him  Its not babying him.  It managing him and the team for the best outcome.

 

I thought you were advocating skipping Grayson in the Toronto series but keeping him in the majors.  That’s what I meant by babying him.  If I misunderstood what you were saying, I apologize.  As to sending him back to AAA, I’ve already given my opinion that I’d give him at least two more starts.  His command hasn’t been awful consistently.  It surely was yesterday.  

[Sanity Check]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I know this dude has me on ignore (Haha! LOL) but this is a spot on post about mastering 2-3 pitches before trying to throw 4-5.   I see Rodriguez throwing a splitter, slider, curve, and changeup, all inconsistently.  Can we start with mastering the fastball/changeup and go from there?

Spot on.......as I just said in my previous post, he's never had to rely on what you're saying....he just dominated, until now, when he doesn't.  This should have started a long time ago, or maybe the coaches thought all those things were good because the 'results' told them so.

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

The sad thing is this is the best pitcher we've developed in years through our system, and was supposed to be the 2nd coming, the savior.

Like Stowers and Henderson, we all need to hope Grayson figures it out, but for this year, I think we'll see a mixed bag of results and some really disappointing outings like we've already seen.

Or we could see him steadily progress and settle into a #2 role.  Why's that not a possibility?

 

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Are we going to demote every player when they struggle?

Are you going to say that every great prospect needs to stay in Baltimore after they arrive no matter how bad they are for extended periods of time?  

I think you'll agree that a one size fits all approach isn't great for each player.  Maybe some of these guys do need to get sent down.  I'm not advocating that G-Rod should be sent down now, mind you.  

[interloper]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I was laughing because of the “I’m pretty down” comment. You are taking this stuff way too seriously if it’s making you feel down. I can see getting pissed or being excited in the moment but “I’m pretty down” seems to be a “time to take a step back” type thing.

As for his stuff, no I think you are completely wrong. Stuff+ shows his stuff to be very good and I see good stuff. What we don’t see is good command. That’s the issue now…command.

It has nothing to do with with whether his pitches are good enough.

Now, with that said (and I feel the same way about Bradish), I think he throws too many different pitches. I feel he needs to scrap 1-2 of his pitches and throw what he does best. These are coming up with 5 and 6 pitches and it’s just too much.  Master 2-3 pitches first and then you can expand things.

Overall, he is missing bats at about a league average rate for a starter. His str% is slightly below average but not egregiously so.

He has 2 big issues..too many baserunners (more worried about the walks) and too many homers allowed. He is leaving too many pitches over the plate. Solo homers don’t matter that much but when you are letting up almost 2 baserunners per inning, homers become a problem.

Talk of sending him down today is dumb imo. Like really really dumb.

But a few more bad starts like that one and it becomes a real discussion. He’s learning and I would prefer him to do it up here.  The team is 6-2 when he starts, so it’s not like he’s hurting the team, just like Gunnar hasn’t really been hurting the team overall.

It would be nice seeing him come up and perform better immediately but that doesn’t always happen. As fans, you just have to deal with it and the fans that booed him last night should be throat punched.

 

Fair post I guess. I'm down in the sense that I'm frustrated that he's suddenly developed this command issue in the year that he's in the big leagues. And it's not because he's in the big leagues. We saw signs of it in Norfolk last year and this spring. I keep coming back to rookie Kevin Gausman and being bewildered that Grayson is not currently better. 

What's funny is that Gausman had the opposite problem where he needed a third pitch, or so some thought, while Grayson has too many. 

And I will just have to disagree about the quality of his stuff, regardless of stuff+. I just think his stuff looks pretty unremarkable. Part of that is certainly because a lot of it is either not in the zone or too in the zone.