Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Tony-OH]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Statcast says .395 wOBA, .360 xwOBA, 4.86 xERA.   So, a bit of back luck on the wOBA/xwOBA, but the gulf between his xERA and his actual ERA is also partly a matter of sequencing.  Letting rallies snowball.  

Same problem he had in spring training. We are starting to see a little bit of a pattern in that Rodriguez really seems to struggle to stem the tide when they go bad for him. Maybe part it was he really has never had that issue because he never faced batters who can do that do him. In the minors, he may face 2-4 good hitters but the rest he could get out due to stuff alone.

As I said in the game thread last night, it's not the stuff, it's the command of the stuff. He got unlucky on the changeup away that ended up a two-run double, but then he imploded afterwards. 

Command and being able to control his emotions are things that he should be able to improve on. He's going to be fine longterm, but he's obviously going to have growing pains until he can get those two aspects down.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Depends.  Do they have options?  Is there a replacement ready?

If Gibson struggles in his next start, should he go to the pen?  Do you want Mateo benched?  
 

Like how far are you taking these small sample size issues?

[emmett16]

58 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He needs to learn how to command his pitches.   The team goal is to win.  Sending Grayson to AAA to work on this stuff and bringing up someone else benefits that team and him  Its not babying him.  It managing him and the team for the best outcome.

 

I don’t see anyone on the roster better that could come up and take his place.  Give the man some time to figure it out.  If he’s getting pounded and has a 5.5+ era end of June, maybe make a move.

[DirtyBird]

19 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I don’t see anyone on the roster better that could come up and take his place.  Give the man some time to figure it out.  If he’s getting pounded and has a 5.5+ era end of June, maybe make a move.

He was supposed to go to AAA out of spring training because he stunk there. He made one poor start there and was forced up due to Bradish's injury and Irvin's poor start. He needs to go back to AAA to figure it out, not on the major league roster.

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

He was supposed to go to AAA out of spring training because he stunk there. He made one poor start there and was forced up due to Bradish's injury and Irvin's poor start. He needs to go back to AAA to figure it out, not on the major league roster.

There are no pitchers in Norfolk that would do a better job than he is doing.  I’ll revisit that thought in another month. 

[SilverRocket]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Kevin Gausman's first 160 IP between his short 2013 and longer 2014 amounted to a 4.22 ERA. If you can't do better than Kevin Gausman on a team that is arguably better and in a ballpark that is now a pticher's park, then what are we doing here? Grayson should be far outclassing the likes of rookie Kevin Gausman, with all the tools at his disposal. Gausman famously said there was nothing like that when he pitched here. There are no more excuses. 

Gausman is a really talented pitcher... do you consider GRod to be far outclassing that in terms of talent? Naturally I'm not happy with what GRod has shown so far, but if GRod's ceiling ends up at the level of Gausman's best then I would be satisfied with that final product. Hopefully he gets there faster.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Command and being able to control his emotions are things that he should be able to improve on. He's going to be fine longterm, but he's obviously going to have growing pains until he can get those two aspects down.

I guess my question is why do his stuff and command appear to be getting worse instead of better with all the tools and coaching at his disposal? To me it has nothing to do with "major league hitters". He's just not able to physically perform as well as he has in the past, whether it's mechanics or something that changed following the injury, etc. We know this because like you said, he's the same guy as 2nd half AAA last year and ST this year.

So I think it's foolish to think this is some kind of "rookie taking his lumps until he figures it out" scenario. It's not, IMO. It's just a guy who can't execute no matter where he is - AAA or MLB. He knows how to get ML hitters out, he just can't physically do it right now. There's no learning involved. Either he sorts out his mechanics or he doesn't. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, SilverRocket said:

Gausman is a really talented pitcher... do you consider GRod to be far outclassing that in terms of talent? Naturally I'm not happy with what GRod has shown so far, but if GRod's ceiling ends up at the level of Gausman's best then I would be satisfied with that final product. Hopefully he gets there faster.

Gausman was never the game's top pitching prospect. The issue isn't can GRod achieve Gausman's ceiling, it's can he even achieve his floor right now. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If Gibson struggles in his next start, should he go to the pen?  Do you want Mateo benched?  
 

Like how far are you taking these small sample size issues?

Gibson is being paid 10m this year and he has no options.  He will stay on the O's roster.   But Means,  Irvin, Hall and Rom are all progressing.   If they become better starters than Gibson he could go to the pen at some point.   Not now, but Elias/Hyde/Holt need to put the best starters in the rotation.   Who those starter are could change over time.

Mateo has great defensive value.   He is a better SS than what I have seen from Gunnar.  I have not seen enough for Ortiz to have a good opinion yet.   But I want to see Ortiz play some at SS.  Westburg does not have the range to play SS for the O's with all the competition from others.

If Mateo hits and plays defense he is hard to beat.   If he slumps he becomes vulnerable to what Ortiz can possibly do.  I need more information on Ortiz.

Edited May 16, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Gibson is being paid 10m this year and he has no options.  He will stay on the O's roster.   But Means,  Irvin, Hall and Rom are all progressing.   If they become better starters than Gibson he could go to the pen at some point.   No now, but Elias/Hyde/Holt need to put the best starters in the rotation.   That could change over time.

Mateo has great defensive value.   He is a better SS than what I have seem from Gunnar.  I have not seen enough for Ortiz to have a good opinion yet.   But I want to see Ortiz play some at SS.  Westburg does not have the range to play SS for the O's with all the competition from others.

If Mateo hits and plays defense he is hard to beat.   If he slumps he becomes vulnerable to what Ortiz can possibly do.  I need more information on Ortiz.

But Gibson can go to the pen.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But Gibson can go to the pen.

He hasn't been as terrible as Grayson

[FlaO'sFan]

39 minutes ago, interloper said:

Gausman was never the game's top pitching prospect. The issue isn't can GRod achieve Gausman's ceiling, it's can he even achieve his floor right now. 

I have no idea what Gausman was rated as a pitching prospect, but he was the first pitcher taken in the 2012 draft, and after a few innings in his ML debut against the Blue Jays, some baseball writer that I can't remember tweeted out that we were looking at the pitcher with the best stuff in the majors (meaning Gausman). Of course he imploded and we went on to lose that game handily. Regardless, he was well thought of at the time.

I had never seen GRod pitch until his first ML start this year, and after a few innings I said that he reminded me of Kevin Gausman, but maybe a little better. I am for giving him a long leash, but right now he looks like Gausman 2.0 to me. A lively fastball that overpowers hitters at times, but less than great command of secondary pitches that he leaves over the heart of the plate too often that wind up getting crushed. I still think that he will turn out better than Kevin, and maybe significantly, but time will tell and I hope we give him a long leash to figure it out.

Edited May 16, 2023 by FlaO'sFan

[SilverRocket]

34 minutes ago, interloper said:

Gausman was never the game's top pitching prospect. The issue isn't can GRod achieve Gausman's ceiling, it's can he even achieve his floor right now. 

Gausman probably would have been the game's top pitching prospect if he were in the system the O's have now.

And I get it, that matters and we should expect more, but at the end of the day their talent levels are about the same. GRod isn't really a true ace type of prospect. Gausman had a 5.66 ERA in his rookie season and I suspect GRod will be better than that when this year is over.

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

. GRod isn't really a true ace type of prospect.

He's not? That's what literally everyone has been saying for years now. I can feel the goalposts moving...

[Yossarian]

Whatever the expectations were coming into the season, they have been tempered write a bit.