Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Going Underground]

3 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Roy Halladay in his third year had over a 10 ERA and was sent to the minors.

Of course with top prosoect pitchers  rated in the top 20 in Baseball America, only 10% become above average. About 57% end up below average to other pitchers 

[Gurgi]

Randy Johnson also was a mountain of suck when he came up.

[Spy Fox]

The aspect of this that gives me the most concern is the fact that his dominance has been basically turned off ever since his injury. 

Myself and others are citing great pitchers who had tough starts in MLB, and there are tons of those, but there are also a lot of Dylan Bundys who suffer an early career injury and never quite reestablish that pre-injury level, even if they go on to have ok MLB careers like Bundy did. 

When I watch Rodriguez, I don't think that's what's going on here, but I'm gonna be nervous about it until he really recaptures the preinjury form.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The aspect of this that gives me the most concern is the fact that his dominance has been basically turned off ever since his injury. 

Myself and others are citing great pitchers who had tough starts in MLB, and there are tons of those, but there are also a lot of Dylan Bundys who suffer an early career injury and never quite reestablish that pre-injury level, even if they go on to have ok MLB careers like Bundy did. 

When I watch Rodriguez, I don't think that's what's going on here, but I'm gonna be nervous about it until he really recaptures the preinjury form.

It was a lat pull right?

Not the same category of injury as the stuff Bundy went through.  The only comparable case I can think of is maybe Matusz?

[WarehouseChatter]

Anyone writing Grayson off is just silly. John Smoltz first year: 2-7, 5.48. Greg Maddux first full year: 6-14, 5.61. There are ample examples throughout history of pitchers struggling to adjust that first year. Give Grayson some….we’ll….grace! He needs to make adjustments and a stint in the minors can help him.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The aspect of this that gives me the most concern is the fact that his dominance has been basically turned off ever since his injury. 

Myself and others are citing great pitchers who had tough starts in MLB, and there are tons of those, but there are also a lot of Dylan Bundys who suffer an early career injury and never quite reestablish that pre-injury level, even if they go on to have ok MLB careers like Bundy did. 

When I watch Rodriguez, I don't think that's what's going on here, but I'm gonna be nervous about it until he really recaptures the preinjury form.

Aaaaaaaaa.......Shush.  La la la la la.

[Spy Fox]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Aaaaaaaaa.......Shush.  La la la la la.

Back on a positive note, for a more optimistic example we only need to look to last year's Orioles.

Kyle Bradish's first 10 starts: 46.1 IP, 7.38 ERA, .967 OPS against

 Kyle Bradish's 13 starts after returning to the O's for a second stint: 71.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, .607 OPS against

And so far this year, he's not as good as second half '22 Bradish, but closer to that than he is to the first half '22 Bradish.

[tntoriole]

I hope you all are correct.. but he has not looked one whit like the pitcher I saw with my own eyes twice before injury.

I am sure there are deep dive looks at his mechanics and spin rates and arm angle repeats etc but just the old eyeball test is that he is not throwing the same way he did prior to injury.  
 

I hope he gets it straightened out but I am very pessimistic at this point re: TOR 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, tntoriole said:

I hope you all are correct.. but he has not looked one whit like the pitcher I saw with my own eyes twice before injury.

I am sure there are deep dive looks at his mechanics and spin rates and arm angle repeats etc but just the old eyeball test is that he is not throwing the same way he did prior to injury.  
 

I hope he gets it straightened out but I am very pessimistic at this point re: TOR 

I wonder if Grayson’s struggles will impact Elias’ strategy at the trade deadline to get a TOR type starter assuming any are available.

If it really is win now time then a #1 or #2 starter is a top priority to make this team October ready.

[Sanity Check]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I wonder if Grayson’s struggles will impact Elias’ strategy at the trade deadline to get a TOR type starter assuming any are available.

If it really is win now time then a #1 or #2 starter is a top priority to make this team October ready.

If I'm Elias right now, I'm not counting on Rodriguez to be a difference maker for a pennant run......THIS YEAR.   If we are so lucky, then that's a great result, but we need to prepare as if an upgrade must be made for the staff to be bolstered.  From my lips to God's ears.....

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I wonder if Grayson’s struggles will impact Elias’ strategy at the trade deadline to get a TOR type starter assuming any are available.

If it really is win now time then a #1 or #2 starter is a top priority to make this team October ready.

Well if Grayson had been lights out and Means not injured, i think he would have stayed with what he has.  If Cole Irvin or DLHall exceed current expectations, he may still. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

If I'm Elias right now, I'm not counting on Rodriguez to be a difference maker for a pennant run......THIS YEAR.   If we are so lucky, then that's a great result, but we need to prepare as if an upgrade must be made for the staff to be bolstered.  From my lips to God's ears.....

My thought process has been even if Grayson was good as a rookie starter the team still needs a veteran anchor for the rotation. It’s a bit more of an urgent need now with Grayson struggling if the O’s really are in win now mode. 

 

[Tony-OH]

On 5/16/2023 at 3:58 PM, Spy Fox said:

My perception of Grayson's long term ceiling isn't really damaged. 

What's a bummer is, I was hoping we might have a guy ready for a Spencer Strider, Alek Manoah, Shane McClanahan type rookie year where they look like the guy you were hoping for from pretty much the beginning. (Though, wow, what's wrong with Manoah this year?)

John Means I guess kinda did that, though he wasn't as highly touted. 

This is a pretty good assessment overall. I still hope that Grayson will have longterm success, but the hope was that he was ready to be a solid everyday starter from the get go. I'm hoping he can mature out of the absolute inability to stop an inning from snowballing on him. Seems the second something goes bad, he starts pumping pitches in the middle of the plate and major league hitters know it about him. 

I'll admit, his lack of mound presences and maturity has been a surprise. You never really know how the bright lights of the major league spotlight will affect a player/pitcher until they get into that spotlight, but the one thing is clear is that Rodriguez is not ready to be a consistent major league starter right now.

I will also say that I noticed at times that his fastball was a barreled up a little too often in the minors for it's velocity, and unfortunately, the same can be said in the majors. 

I know some pitchers take a bit to get it down, and I see the swing and miss rates and the movements of every pitch has throws has plus movement in some direction, but a 53% hard hit rate is in the bottom 2% of the league and that is very concerning.

He's 10 starts in and is sporting an embarrassing 7.35 ERA and 6.00 xERA, with bottom of the league hard hit percent and XWOBA. 

We all want him to do well, and he very well may still have a bright future, but there are hosts of other rookie starters that have not gotten beat up this badly to start their careers.

He needs a mental reset and maybe a little reality check that he needs to improve his command and pumping pitches down the middle of the plate doesn't work in the majors.

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, WarehouseChatter said:

Anyone writing Grayson off is just silly. John Smoltz first year: 2-7, 5.48. Greg Maddux first full year: 6-14, 5.61. There are ample examples throughout history of pitchers struggling to adjust that first year. Give Grayson some….we’ll….grace! He needs to make adjustments and a stint in the minors can help him.

Greinke struggled mightily in his early years with the Royals. It’s way too early to panic with Grayson. Pitching prospects are such a crapshoot and hopefully Elias as a plan to bolster the pitching staff if internal prospects don’t step it up. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

The stuff is there. You can see the plus change, fastball, slider, and curve. Unfortunately, the plus secondaries are few and far between.  He may look far away from success but I think he’s pretty close.

Mercifully, I didn’t see last night’s game.  He’s certainly looked much better some games than others.  To me, he had much better command as a minor leaguer than he’s shown this year.   But, it’s possible I just think that because batters were swinging at stuff just outside the strike zone a lot more when Grayson was in the minors.  I really don’t think that’s it though.   I’m just think that for whatever reason, he hasn’t regained the command he had before the lat injury.  Hopefully, he can figure it out in AAA.  

Man, nothing is ever easy when it comes to this team and pitchers this century.