Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Es4M11]

On 2/10/2023 at 8:48 AM, Es4M11 said:

120-140 ip
4.20-4.50 era
110-120 k
60-70 bb

I base this off nothing more than gut feeling. He will be serviceable this year, and eventually settle in as a solid mid rotation starter going forward. I don't think he's the ace we are all hoping for, but I'm also kind of an idiot when it comes to trying to predict these sort of things.

Good time to bump this with Grayson done for the regular season. He started worse than I expected, but finished way better than I had hoped.

Feels good to be wrong

[Frobby]

On 2/9/2023 at 8:10 PM, Frobby said:

Based on the research I just did, I’ll say that I’d be disappointed if Rodriguez had an ERA over 3.75 or so.

Good thread bump.  Even though Rodriguez’s ERA was higher than I expected, because of the way it happened, I am not disappointed.   I wasn’t expecting him to have such serious hiccups early, but his performance after he returned from AAA vastly exceeded my expectations for him. And, he threw more innings (163.1) than I expected, counting his AAA work.  Postseason innings to come.

If we do a “Grayson Rodriguez Expectations 2024” thread, my expectations will be pretty damned high.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

Not disappointed at all.  It was a rough road for him to start but he's been tremendous since coming back from the minors.  A strong finish (over an extended period of time, too) makes up for how rocky the season started for him.

I agree with Froberto Duran.  I will have very high expectations for him next year.

[Gunnar]

Certainly on of the best "demotion to AAA" success stories I can remember.

[dystopia]

12 minutes ago, Gunnar said:

Certainly on of the best "demotion to AAA" success stories I can remember.

Bradish was one too last year. 

His success this year shouldn’t have been a big surprise. 

Now I will say it was surprising just how successful he was, but he should have been expected to have a very solid year. 

[btdart20]

This thread met expectations of human over-reaction.  

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wasn’t expecting him to have such serious hiccups early, but his performance after he returned from AAA vastly exceeded my expectations for him.

This is spot on.

Hat tip to the staff for identifying the release point inconsistencies.  And to Grayson putting in the work as well. 

I'm really excited to see how his career plays out!

[MCO'sFan]

Yeah, I was extremely disappointed with how his season started even back to ST. It was brutal to watch. But couldn't be happier with his performance since coming back. To get his ERA down to 4.35 was crazy. I want to see progression in getting deeper into games next year. 

[Aristotelian]

He did exceed my innings expectation, by quite a lot, especially if you count his AAA stint. I was wildly optimistic in my projection (2.75 ERA) but he hit that during the second half so I'll give myself credit for being half right (and more importantly, give Grayson credit for hitting my expectation at least during that window). 

[dzorange]

What is Grayson's slot in the ALDS playoff rotation? #2 is an obvious choice. But #1 could be considered. Could John Means find his way as the #2 with him being a lefty and being able to pitch at Camden?

[Keygans]

I think pitching Means in game 2 because he is left handed makes the most sense… but let’s see how he does against Boston.

 

I also think matchups might decide.   Playing Houston is different than say Tampa or Toronto… 

[spleen1015]

Bradish is #1 and Grayson is #2. I don't think there's any question about that.

[Aristotelian]

27 minutes ago, dzorange said:

What is Grayson's slot in the ALDS playoff rotation? #2 is an obvious choice. But #1 could be considered. Could John Means find his way as the #2 with him being a lefty and being able to pitch at Camden?

I was thinking if Bradish does go for Game 162 it might make sense to have Grayson be the #1. Otherwise Bradish would be going on short rest and Grayson would have a longer layoff. Means would be a bold move.

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

Yeah, I was extremely disappointed with how his season started even back to ST. It was brutal to watch. But couldn't be happier with his performance since coming back. To get his ERA down to 4.35 was crazy. I want to see progression in getting deeper into games next year. 

He did pretty well upon his return, 5.90 IP per start.  I definitely think that will tick up next year.  There was a while where he seemed to have a mental block about getting through the 6th inning.  Once he broke through that, he did it pretty regularly, even throwing 7 and 8 once each.  He got a little tired at the end of the season, which is understandable since he’s about 60 innings beyond his previous max.   If we win the division, the extra rest before any playoff appearances should help him immensely.  And then he’ll be very nicely set up for next year, with a winter to absorb everything he learned and experienced in 2023.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Frobby

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I was thinking if Bradish does go for Game 162 it might make sense to have Grayson be the #1. Otherwise Bradish would be going on short rest and Grayson would have a longer layoff. Means would be a bold move.

Game 162 is 10/1

Game 1 of ALDS is 10/7

That is not short rest

[Sports Guy]

Kyle Tucker has a higher OPS vs lefties than righties this year. Alvarez’s OPS is less vs lefties but it’s still 900.  If it’s Houston, I’m pitching my 2 best guys immediately and in fact, since Gibson and Kremer have pitched well Vs Houston, I may not start Means at all in that series.

That said, it’s looking more and more like it’s going to be Tor or Tampa.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Sports Guy