Which O's players have the highest ceilings going forward

[wildcard]

The best place to start is Tony's prospect list.  Then fit the O's players on the 40 man roster into the list.

1. Adley

2. Gunnar

3. GRod

4. Holliday

5. DL Hall

6. Mayo

7. Bautista

8. Bradish

9. Mullins

10. Means

11. Santander

12.  Westburg

13.  Ortiz

14. Kremer

15. Hays

16. Cowser

17. Mateo

18.  Mountcastle

19. Wells

20. Stowers

21. Norby

22. Kjerstad

23. Perez

24.  Basallo

25.  Beavers

26.  Urias

27. Povich

28. Fabian

29. Wagner

30.  Seth Johnson

Just my guess.    What do you think?

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by wildcard

[Moose Milligan]

Is this really a thread 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is this really a thread 

Why not?  Kind of an interesting exercise.  The only problem is, “ceiling” is always going to favor those who haven’t really been tested yet.

How are we measuring ceiling?  Best career, or best season?

Edited February 18, 2023 by Frobby

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why not?  Kind of an interesting exercise.  The only problem is, “ceiling” is always going to favor those who haven’t really been tested yet.

How are we measuring ceiling?  Best career, or best season?

However anyone wants to.  Why limit the discussion.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why not?  Kind of an interesting exercise.  The only problem is, “ceiling” is always going to favor those who haven’t really been tested yet.

How are we measuring ceiling?  Best career, or best season?

It’s practically a rehash of a top prospects list. I agree ceiling is hard to define in some respects but I don’t find this really interesting at all. Adley, Gunnar, G-Rod, Hall, Holiday, Cowser in some varying order…I mean, c’mon. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s practically a rehash of a top prospects list. I agree ceiling is hard to define in some respects but I don’t find this really interesting at all. Adley, Gunnar, G-Rod, Hall, Holiday, Cowser in some varying order…I mean, c’mon. 

You can sneak Cole Irvin in the top 10 of your list for fun.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s practically a rehash of a top prospects list. I agree ceiling is hard to define in some respects but I don’t find this really interesting at all. Adley, Gunnar, G-Rod, Hall, Holiday, Cowser in some varying order…I mean, c’mon. 

I think it’s fun to look at wildcard’s list and dream about what would happen if the listed players hit their ceiling.  At the same time, I’m not sure I have the energy to do my own list.   

Offhand, I think Bautista is way too high.  He had a great year, but at the end of the day, he’s a reliever, and he’s already 28 years old going into this season. 

I probably would flip Santander’s and Mountcastle’s spots in the rankings.  I’m not sure Mountcastle will reach his ceiling, but he’s still got great raw power and bat to ball skills and is relatively young.   I think Santander has reached his peak.   I put Hays above of Santander because his defense is a lot better.   

I’d probably have Kjerstad, Beavers and Fabian higher on my list.  Again, probability of hitting their ceilings are not that high, but if they hit them, their ceilings are very good.   

I wish there were more pitchers who deserved to be listed.  I’m a Carlos Tavera fan and think he could be pretty dominant if he puts things together.   



 

[Just Regular]

It opens a door for the John Means v. DL Hall, or Coby Mayo v. Ryan Mountcastle kind of debate until Elias gives us a 2024 fall lineup with whoever's left and the pitchers from his prospect trades.

I'm sure some of it is the novelty value of entering a year with an exciting IFA bat for the first time in forever, but Basallo feels too low on wildcard's initial list.    I'm starting out Delmarva hoping he can be Schoop to Holliday's Manny.

[Aristotelian]

You could use baseballtradevalues list as a baseline. They have:

Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Grayson, Mullins, Cowser, Bautista, Mayo, Hall, Hays

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s fun to look at wildcard’s list and dream about what would happen if the listed players hit their ceiling.  At the same time, I’m not sure I have the energy to do my own list.   

Offhand, I think Bautista is way too high.  He had a great year, but at the end of the day, he’s a reliever, and he’s already 28 years old going into this season. 

I probably would flip Santander’s and Mountcastle’s spots in the rankings.  I’m not sure Mountcastle will reach his ceiling, but he’s still got great raw power and bat to ball skills and is relatively young.   I think Santander has reached his peak.   I put Hays above of Santander because his defense is a lot better.   

I’d probably have Kjerstad, Beavers and Fabian higher on my list.  Again, probability of hitting their ceilings are not that high, but if they hit them, their ceilings are very good.   

I wish there were more pitchers who deserved to be listed.  I’m a Carlos Tavera fan and think he could be pretty dominant if he puts things together.   



 

That’s the thing, I lose interest in this exercise when his list hits Bautista. And I like Bautista, but he made me too nervous far too many times last year to really want to rank him that high. 
 

IMO there’s the top 5-6 guys you could put in any order and not feel wrong about it and then there’s a mishmash of other guys. 
 

I would say the wildcard (no pun intended) could be RMC. The peripherals say he was unlucky last year. He’s got some thump and he can make contact. I don’t think his OBP will ever crack .350 and he’s never going to walk at a good clip but I could see some 40 homer seasons if he puts it all together. 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That’s the thing, I lose interest in this exercise when his list hits Bautista. And I like Bautista, but he made me too nervous far too many times last year to really want to rank him that high. 
 

IMO there’s the top 5-6 guys you could put in any order and not feel wrong about it and then there’s a mishmash of other guys. 
 

I would say the wildcard (no pun intended) could be RMC. The peripherals say he was unlucky last year. He’s got some thump and he can make contact. I don’t think his OBP will ever crack .350 and he’s never going to walk at a good clip but I could see some 40 homer seasons if he puts it all together. 

Year to year variance can be crazy in baseball.  Let's use Brady as an example...but I'm not even going to use 1996. 

1998- 133 GP, 1.5 rWAR

1999- 150 GP, 5.9 rWAR

2000- 141 GP, 1.9 rWAR

WTH happened in '99?  Baseball happened.

Who here thought that Mullins had a 30/30 season in him?

Could Mountcastle go nuts one year and hit 50 dongs? 

[RZNJ]

Right.  Ceilings are a funny thing.  Mullins went straight through his ceiling.  Here’s my list taking offense and defense into the equation just for position players.

1.  Henderson

2. Rutschman

3. Holliday

4. Mullins

5. Mateo

6. Cowser

7. Mayo

8. Ortiz

9. Basallo

10. Beavers

[wildcard]

My thoughts on some of the points made.

Bautista - Is not just a reliever. He is a dominating closer.  4 or 5 years of what we saw last year would be very valuable.  Think Zack Britton.  That is his ceiling IMO.

Mountcastle - Powerful guy.  But can he adjust  his hitting style to the Wall.   Davis couldn't adjust.  If he doesn't he is a average player.  Mountcastle defense has improve but that arm is one of the worst in the league for a 1B.

Santander - Is probably at his peak at 33 HR. 89 RBI.   Look as the player lower on the list.  How may of them can reach that level.  Maybe Kjerstad but there is much more uncertainty looking forward.

Edited February 18, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  Ceilings are a funny thing.  Mullins went straight through his ceiling.  Here’s my list taking offense and defense into the equation just for position players.

1.  Henderson

2. Rutschman

3. Holliday

4. Mullins

5. Mateo

6. Cowser

7. Mayo

8. Ortiz

9. Basallo

10. Beavers

I one criteria I did set is ceiling going forward.   Mullins will probably never hit 30 homers again.   But he might steal 50 with the new rules.  Mullins is 28 and makes his living with his legs.   He is bound to lose speed in the next few years.   He will still be a good player but that is why I have him 9th instead of 4th.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I one criteria I did set is ceiling going forward.   Mullins will probably never hit 30 homers again.   But he might steal 50 with the new rules.  Mullins is 28 and makes his living with his legs.   He is bound to lose speed in the next few years.   He will still be a good player but that is why I have him 9th instead of 4th.

We are just having fun.  Who knows.   If Mullins hit 20 homers, stole 40 bases, and played plus defense in CF that’s still a pretty high ceiling.