Which O's players have the highest ceilings going forward

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is this really a thread 

I mean, consider the source.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My thoughts on some of the points made.

Bautista - Is not just a reliever. He is a dominating close.  4 or 5 years of what we saw last year would be very valuable.  Think Zack Britton.  That is his ceiling IMO.

Mountcastle - Powerful guy.  But can he adjust  his hitting style to the Wall.   Davis couldn't adjust.  If he doesn't he is a average player.  Mountcastle defense has improve but that arm is one of the worst in the league for a 1B.

Santander - Is probably at his peak at 33 HR. 89 RBI.   Look as the player lower on the list.  How may of them can reach that level.  Maybe Kjerstad but there is much more uncertainty looking forward.

My view on Santander is you have to look at his whole game, not just offense. He just had his best year and it was worth 2.1 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR.  I think that’s about as high as his ceiling goes.  Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong.   

I think people overestimate the importance of the Wall in Mountcastle’s performance last year.  Truth is, he hit much better at home (.767 OPS) than on the road (.691).   He’s an all-fields hitter who, out of 130 qualified hitters, was 114th in pull percentage.   There’s no adjusting for him to do, he just needs better luck and to swing at fewer crappy pitches.   

As to Bautista, say his ceiling is Britton, as you say.   That’s still not that high a ceiling IMO unless he maintains it a lot longer than Britton did.  By the way, I’m not expecting Bautista to ever equal Britton’s 2016 season.

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

My view on Santander is you have to look at his whole game, not just offense. He just had his best year and it was worth 2.1 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR.  I think that’s about as high as his ceiling goes.  Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong.   

I think people overestimate the importance of the Wall in Mountcastle’s performance last year.  Truth is, he hit much better at home (.767 OPS) than on the road (.691).   He’s an all-fields hitter who, out of 130 qualified hitters, was 114th in pull percentage.   There’s no adjusting for him to do, he just needs better luck and to swing at fewer crappy pitches.   

As to Bautista, say his ceiling is Britton, as you say.   That’s still not that high a ceiling IMO unless he maintains it a lot longer than Britton did.  By the way, I’m not expecting Bautista to ever equal Britton’s 2016 season.

 

As great as Bautista’s stuff is, Britton had a pitch and hitters knew exactly what the pitch was going to be and just couldn’t square it up.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  Ceilings are a funny thing.  Mullins went straight through his ceiling.  Here’s my list taking offense and defense into the equation just for position players.

1.  Henderson

2. Rutschman

3. Holliday

4. Mullins

5. Mateo

6. Cowser

7. Mayo

8. Ortiz

9. Basallo

10. Beavers

So what are you saying about Mateo and Ortiz with these ceiling rankings? Should they be everyday players?

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So what are you saying about Mateo and Ortiz with these ceiling rankings? Should they be everyday players?

They are both plus SS defensively.    They both have potential offensively which makes their ceilings fairly high, IMO.    As long as they hit some, they are everyday players.   

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

My view on Santander is you have to look at his whole game, not just offense. He just had his best year and it was worth 2.1 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR.  I think that’s about as high as his ceiling goes.  Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong.   

I think people overestimate the importance of the Wall in Mountcastle’s performance last year.  Truth is, he hit much better at home (.767 OPS) than on the road (.691).   He’s an all-fields hitter who, out of 130 qualified hitters, was 114th in pull percentage.   There’s no adjusting for him to do, he just needs better luck and to swing at fewer crappy pitches.   

As to Bautista, say his ceiling is Britton, as you say.   That’s still not that high a ceiling IMO unless he maintains it a lot longer than Britton did.  By the way, I’m not expecting Bautista to ever equal Britton’s 2016 season.

 

The Wall effected Mountcastle quite a bit.   His away stats from 2021 (713 OPS) to 2022 (691 OPS) were similar.   But his home stats took a major hit.

2021   22 HR,    274/316/555/871

2022   11 HR,     274/327/440/767

Edited February 18, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The Wall effected Mountcastle quite a bit.   His away stats from 2021 (713 OPS) to 2022 (713 OPS) were similar.   But his home stats took a major hit.

2021   22 HR,    274/316/555/871

2022   11 HR,     274/327/440/767

I didn’t mean to suggest that the Wall didn’t affect Mountcastle.  I’m just saying (1) it wasn’t the only issue, and (2) he’s not really a dead pull hitter by any means so I don’t think there’s really anything he can do to “adjust” to the Wall.

i think I’ve read reports that Mountcastle lost 5-6 homers to the Wall, so if he’s down 11 homers at home, the Wall is about half the cause of that.  

Your post has a typo - his road OPS was .691 last year, not .713.   And he really does need to hit better on the road if he wants to move up a peg or two.  
 

Edited February 18, 2023 by Frobby

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t mean to suggest that the Wall didn’t affect Mountcastle.  I’m just saying (1) it wasn’t the only issue, and (2) he’s not really a dead pull hitter by any means so I don’t think there’s really anything he can do to “adjust” to the Wall.

i think I’ve read reports that Mountcastle lost 5-6 homers to the Wall, so if he’s down 11 homers at home, the Wall is about half the cause of that.  

Your post has a typo - his road OPS was .691 last year, not .713.   And he really does need to hit better on the road if he wants to move up a peg or two.  
 

Thanks. Fixed it.

So that is why I had Mountcastle down the list.  He has to show he can adjust to the walk and hit on the road.

Edited February 18, 2023 by wildcard

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

This list can't possibly be right I read on OH recently that Adley has already peaked as a baseball player. We should be seeing threads posted on Adley's trade value and why doesn't Elias sell high on him.

 

More serious take: I'd probably have Gunnar at #1 and Adley ranked just below him.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Thanks. Fixed it.

So that is why I had Mountcastle down the list.  He has to show he can adjust to the walk and hit on the road.

Huh?

If you are looking at his "ceiling" you are assuming that he's made these adjustments.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

If you are looking at his "ceiling" you are assuming that he's made these adjustments.

Whether he can make the adjusts will affect his ceiling IMO.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This list can't possibly be right I read on OH recently that Adley has already peaked as a baseball player. We should be seeing threads posted on Adley's trade value and why doesn't Elias sell high on him.

 

More serious take: I'd probably have Gunnar at #1 and Adley ranked just below him.

From an offensive standpoint I can see Gunnar over Adley but not when what Adley does to improve the pitchers is added in.     

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

If you are looking at his "ceiling" you are assuming that he's made these adjustments.

To me Mountcastle’s ceiling rests on being more selective at the plate.  If he does that, he’ll come close to his ceiling.  Easy to say and tough to do, but look at the strides Santander made in that area last year.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, wildcard said:

From an offensive standpoint I can see Gunnar over Adley but not when what Adley does to improve the pitchers is added in.     

I'll admit to being a Gunnar fanboy and my thought is Gunnar's prime is going to be longer than Adley's. From an impact standpoint the next few years I give Adley the edge for sure.

Whatever the case it's a nice problem to have as opposed to hoping mediocre prospects turn into star players. Given Elias' draft strategy the Orioles should end up having an abundance of position player talent that can be spun off to acquire pitching help.

[owknows]

1. Rutschman

2. GRod

3. Henderson

4. Kjerstad

5. Holliday

6. Beavers

7. Ortiz

8. Basallo

9. Westbrook

10. Mayo