Which O's players have the highest ceilings going forward

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes..the data they have now.

Im sure Holliday’s ratings are as high or higher than Gunnar at the same age.

Gunnar’s have unquestionably changed. They are higher than last year. I believe Frobby pointed that out.  
 

They always change.

Hollidays ceiling today is higher than Gunnar at similar ages because Gunnar wasn’t thought to be a guarantee to stay at SS…Holliday is. That makes him the more valuable all around guy.

But Gunnar’s ceiling has gotten higher over the last few years. Holliday has to show improvement and development to do the same thing.

Doesn’t “ceiling” inherently mean foreseeable projection?  And if that projection starts from a higher level at a younger age when comparing one player to another, how can the player with the “higher forecast” at a younger age not have the higher ceiling?

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes..the data they have now.

Im sure Holliday’s ratings are as high or higher than Gunnar at the same age.

Gunnar’s have unquestionably changed. They are higher than last year. I believe Frobby pointed that out.  
 

They always change.

Hollidays ceiling today is higher than Gunnar at similar ages because Gunnar wasn’t thought to be a guarantee to stay at SS…Holliday is. That makes him the more valuable all around guy.

But Gunnar’s ceiling has gotten higher over the last few years. Holliday has to show improvement and development to do the same thing.

I agree with you. Things can change.  These are best guesses on what they know now and how the think a player will develop.  They were off on Henderson.  Henderson made such huge improvements from 2021 to 2022.  That jump isn’t considered typical.  Holliday may fool them too.  I hope he does in a good way.  That doesn’t change the fact that Fangraphs as of February 2023, think that Henderson will have more future power and speed than Holliday.  They could be wrong but that’s what they think.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with you. Things can change.  These are best guesses on what they know now and how the think a player will develop.  They were off on Henderson.  Henderson made such huge improvements from 2021 to 2022.  That jump isn’t considered typical.  Holliday may fool them too.  I hope he does in a good way.  That doesn’t change the fact that Fangraphs as of February 2023, think that Henderson will have more future power and speed than Holliday.  They could be wrong but that’s what they think.

And he may..but that doesn’t mean he will be the better player or that his ceiling isn’t higher.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And he may..but that doesn’t mean he will be the better player or that his ceiling isn’t higher.

I don’t there is anyone here or at Fangraphs who can actually predict the future.   

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would have to go back and look.  I’m sure they adjust from year to year but this is what they are guessing the future grades are on each player given the data they have now.  Do you disagree with that?

You can find Henderson’s grades as of Feb. 2020 here.  To summarize, he was a 45 FV with FV tools ranging from 50 to 55 except for his arm, which was rated a 60 FV.   Holliday’s 60 FV tool grades for hit, raw power and game power are higher than Henderson’s were at the same point.  

I don’t know how relevant that really is, though.   Henderson is a rare case who has managed to improve his FV in just about every area.   He was highly regarded but people misjudged his ceiling.   He’s exceeded anyone’s reasonable expectations.  It is not likely Holliday will do that.  But, the initial expectations for Holliday are quite high, and significantly higher than they were for Henderson. 
 

[emmett16]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You can find Henderson’s grades as of Feb. 2020 here.  To summarize, he was a 45 FV with FV tools ranging from 50 to 55 except for his arm, which was rated a 60 FV.   Holliday’s 60 FV tool grades for hit, raw power and game power are higher than Henderson’s were at the same point.  

I don’t know how relevant that really is, though.   Henderson is a rare case who has managed to improve his FV in just about every area.   He was highly regarded but people misjudged his ceiling.   He’s exceeded anyone’s reasonable expectations.  It is not likely Holliday will do that.  But, the initial expectations for Holliday are quite high, and significantly higher than they were for Henderson. 
 

I don’t think it’s fair to count what Gunnar has done after his first season when comparing ceilings. Sure, it’s a data point and tells us he likely to now fulfill his potential, but was his potential initially as high?  Holiday has not had that opportunity, yet.   Maybe potential future production or future floors, but when comparing ceilings it seems only fair to me to  judge the players side by side at the same age and same competition level.  I’d say at this point Gunnar is more likely to have an impact MLB career, because he has done it at a higher level.  But I believe Holiday has the higher ceiling, he is starting from a higher level at a younger age. 

[Just Regular]

Holliday v. Gunnar - long term, Holliday sticking closer to 6'1" (or whatever) might aid in him keeping the agility for shortstop a longer time.     Thrilled to have both, obviously.

There's a bit of it for me where Gunnar is Corbin Burnes or Cal Ripken (not top 1st round talent, crafted by his Org) less than he is Dylan Bundy, whereas Holliday at 18 was judged best of the best.    Its a rosy future in which Jackson Holliday meaningfully outplays Gunnar Henderson, as pedigree suggests he could.

Gunnar's incredible development is what makes the upcoming Mayo and Basallo years fun to anticipate.    If the '22 Gunnar breakout was signal not noise (or skill, not a stroke of luck), those are the comparable toolkits where I believe we might see something like it.    

The Adley ceiling fun to consider - .325 and 35 HR?

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I don’t think it’s fair to count what Gunnar has done after his first season when comparing ceilings. Sure, it’s a data point and tells us he likely to now fulfill his potential, but was his potential initially as high?  Holiday has not had that opportunity, yet.   Maybe potential future production or future floors, but when comparing ceilings it seems only fair to me to  judge the players side by side at the same age and same competition level.  I’d say at this point Gunnar is more likely to have an impact MLB career, because he has done it at a higher level.  But I believe Holiday has the higher ceiling, he is starting from a higher level at a younger age. 

I thInk the point I’m making is, these FV tool grades, and descriptions of a player’s so-called “ceiling,” aren’t facts. They’re judgments.   Obviously, on draft day Holliday was considered a better prospect than Henderson was thought to be when Henderson was drafted.   That’s why Holliday went 1:1 while Henderson lasted until the second round.  But players can develop in unexpected ways and the judgments about them change.
 

Henderson appears ready to max out his potential.  I say “appears ready” because a great year in AA/AAA and a solid major league debut in 140ish PA doesn’t guarantee he’s going to be a perennial all-star, as many now seem ready to assume.   I hope that’s what he is, but he’ll need to prove it.  

At this point, Holliday could turn out to be way better than Henderson or way worse, depending on how each of them continue to develop.  Let’s hope they are both star players.   There’s no assurance either will be, despite encouraging signs.  

[wildcard]

On 2/18/2023 at 6:47 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Is this really a thread 

Looks like its doing fine to me.

[Moose Milligan]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Looks like its doing fine to me.

Lllllluuuullllllz a day and 6 pages later you bring it up. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I don’t think it’s fair to count what Gunnar has done after his first season when comparing ceilings. Sure, it’s a data point and tells us he likely to now fulfill his potential, but was his potential initially as high?  Holiday has not had that opportunity, yet.   Maybe potential future production or future floors, but when comparing ceilings it seems only fair to me to  judge the players side by side at the same age and same competition level.  I’d say at this point Gunnar is more likely to have an impact MLB career, because he has done it at a higher level.  But I believe Holiday has the higher ceiling, he is starting from a higher level at a younger age. 

Of course it’s fair in the context of this thread.

The question was asked, who had the highest ceiling.

If, at the same ages, Holliday had a higher ceiling than Henderson, it's reasonable to say his overall skill set is better and that he has a higher ceiling.

Now, what Gunnar did, as Frobby pointed out, was greatly raise his ceiling which doesn’t happen a lot.

So, it’s a balancing act of where Holliday is vs Henderson at the same point and where you think Holliday can go vs where Henderson is now.

What I find funny is the person with the highest ceiling may be DL Hall but no one is really mentioning him. 

[waroriole]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Lllllluuuullllllz a day and 6 pages later you bring it up. 

Dude, you came after wildcard and missed. Don’t get salty for him calling you out. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Now, what Gunnar did, as Frobby pointed out, was greatly raise his ceiling which doesn’t happen a lot.

It goes to show that the whole idea that we know what a player’s ceiling is, is largely BS.   In theory, a player’s ceiling can’t change.  He reaches it or he doesn’t, but if he exceeds what people thought was his ceiling, then people were wrong, period.   That higher ceiling was always in there.   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Dude, you came after wildcard and missed. Don’t get salty for him calling you out. 

Well, sort of. WC has a tendency to make a thread just to make a thread. 
 

Moose’s point wasn’t wrong. We know who has high ceilings and we discuss this all the time.

Instead of cluttering up the board with a New thread, why not just ask the conversation in the threads discussing our top 20 prospects?

In the past, Tony has complained about people bumping threads that are several years old, that don’t really need to be bumped.

He is right. But there is also a tendency for people to start a new thread when it’s not needed. WC does that.  He helps drive conversation, which is good but the constant new threads when they don’t need one can cause better conversations to get pushed down.

I don’t know for sure but I’m guessing this the larger point Moose was making.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It goes to show that the whole idea that we know what a player’s ceiling is, is largely BS.   In theory, a player’s ceiling can’t change.  He reaches it or he doesn’t, but if he exceeds what people thought was his ceiling, then people were wrong, period.   That higher ceiling was always in there.   

I think it’s the idea of what is realistic vs what’s possible.

Lots of things are possible but odds are they aren’t realistic. 

Every once in a while, the possible becomes realistic.