Which O's players have the highest ceilings going forward

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It goes to show that the whole idea that we know what a player’s ceiling is, is largely BS.   In theory, a player’s ceiling can’t change.  He reaches it or he doesn’t, but if he exceeds what people thought was his ceiling, then people were wrong, period.   That higher ceiling was always in there.   

I think ceilings can change the more information we get about players.  From minor league games a player might hit both lefties and righties.   But we may find in the the majors that they can't hit both.   That changes the ceiling.   

A pitcher may have TJ in the minors and that reduces the perception of his ceiling. But that pitcher may do  better in the majors and then his perceive ceiling increases.

It really depends on the information that we have.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s the idea of what is realistic vs what’s possible.

Lots of things are possible but odds are they aren’t realistic. 

Every once in a while, the possible becomes realistic.

 

To me, the FV grades should depend on what’s realistic to expect, but a ceiling shouldn’t change unless the scouts have misjudged it.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, the FV grades should depend on what’s realistic to expect, but a ceiling shouldn’t change unless the scouts have misjudged it.   

I don’t think this is true.

The reality is, you could say every Intl FA’s ceiling is CY award winner or MVP.  There is so much uncertainty there at those ages.

Are you ok with labeling the ceiling of every Intl FA as such?

Edited February 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, sort of. WC has a tendency to make a thread just to make a thread. 
 

Moose’s point wasn’t wrong. We know who has high ceilings and we discuss this all the time.

Instead of cluttering up the board with a New thread, why not just ask the conversation in the threads discussing our top 20 prospects?

In the past, Tony has complained about people bumping threads that are several years old, that don’t really need to be bumped.

He is right. But there is also a tendency for people to start a new thread when it’s not needed. WC does that.  He helps drive conversation, which is good but the constant new threads when they don’t need one can cause better conversations to get pushed down.

I don’t know for sure but I’m guessing this the larger point Moose was making.

You  are just talking in a circles.  Bump old threads but don't bump old threads.  Tony has made it clear that is not what he wants.

Moose had no point IMO.  He just likes to take a shot at me now and then which is fine.  I am a big boy and I will return the shot.   Its all in fun.

Edited February 19, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think this is true.

The reality is, you could say every Intl FA’s ceiling is CY award winner or MVP.  There is so much uncertainty there at those ages.

Are you ok with labeling the ceiling of every Intl FA as such?

I think we could be honest and say we have no idea what the ceiling of a 16-year old kid is.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You  are just talking in a circles.  Bump old threads but don't bump old threads.  Tony has made it clear that is not what he wants.

Moose had no point IMO.  He just likes to take a shot at me now and then which is fine.  I am a big boy and I will return the shot.   Its all in fun.

You’re getting a lecture from a hypocrite who started a Reed Garrett thread instead of posting in your 36 pitchers report to ST thread.   Just laugh.

 

[waroriole]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, sort of. WC has a tendency to make a thread just to make a thread. 
 

Moose’s point wasn’t wrong. We know who has high ceilings and we discuss this all the time.

Instead of cluttering up the board with a New thread, why not just ask the conversation in the threads discussing our top 20 prospects?

In the past, Tony has complained about people bumping threads that are several years old, that don’t really need to be bumped.

He is right. But there is also a tendency for people to start a new thread when it’s not needed. WC does that.  He helps drive conversation, which is good but the constant new threads when they don’t need one can cause better conversations to get pushed down.

I don’t know for sure but I’m guessing this the larger point Moose was making.

Yeah I assume that was the larger point he was making. And my comment towards Moose was mostly in jest. That said, I appreciate wildcard driving conversation around here a lot. He provides a different way of looking at things, and while a lot of times I think his views are odd, it’s good to shake things up a bit. Especially in the offseason when there’s nothing to discuss other than the Frazier signing day after day. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we could be honest and say we have no idea what the ceiling of a 16-year old kid is.  

But then that goes against what you just said. Either the scout knows the ceiling or they don’t, right?

[Frobby]

Do we really need for this thread to devolve into a discussion of thread-worthiness and personal attacks?   Obviously there were people interested in discussing the ceilings of our players and the whole concept of what a ceiling is.   Can’t we just stick to that?

Hall is an interesting one to me.   He has an “if only” ceiling, like a lot of players.   Very high ceiling, but possibly very low chance of reaching it.  

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You  are just talking in a circles.  Bump old threads but don't bump old threads.  Tony has made it clear that is not what he wants.

Moose had no point IMO.  He just likes to take a shot at me now and then which is fine.  I am a big boy and I will return the shot.   Its all in fun.

An old thread is one several years old.

A thread from a few weeks ago isn’t a thread that is an issue bumping because it’s still relevant to right now.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re getting a lecture from a hypocrite who started a Reed Garrett thread instead of posting in your 36 pitchers report to ST thread.   Just laugh.

 

You are right. I should have done that. I forgot about that thread. 
 

I never said that WC is the only one who does this. Was just defending Moose’s side of things.
 

Edited February 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

But then that goes against what you just said. Either the scout knows the ceiling or they don’t, right?

If it’s somewhat inconsistent, so be it.  I think scouts often don’t know the ceiling of a player, and the younger the player and spottier the competition, the truer that is.   

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If it’s somewhat inconsistent, so be it.  I think scouts often don’t know the ceiling of a player, and the younger the player and spottier the competition, the truer that is.   

Ok but then you can’t say they shouldn’t raise the ceiling as they gain more info.

I mean, you can just say the ceiling of this professional athlete is to become an AS, MVP level player.

You don’t get to the point of being drafted, signed, etc..without having some level of talent that most people can only dream of.

I mean, what was the ceiling of Jose Bautista at age 25?  What was the ceiling for Halladay when he was sent to single A?

Pitchers add velo, get a new pitch, etc…hitters change their approach, their stance, get eye surgery, whatever…

People’s bodies change when they get around real trainers and programs.

Think about some inner city kid with no facilities and no tools to get better. Just relying on pure talent and athletic ability. As that kid learns and develops, you re-assess where you think he can be.

Edited February 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Ok but then you can’t say they shouldn’t raise the ceiling as they gain more info.

I mean, you can just say the ceiling of this professional athlete is to become an AS, MVP level player.

You don’t get to the point of being drafted, signed, etc..without having some level of talent that most people can only dream of.

I mean, what was the ceiling of Jose Bautista at age 25?  What was the ceiling for Halladay when he was sent to single A?

Pitchers add velo, get a new pitch, etc…hitters cha he their approach, their stance, get eye surgery, whatever…

People’s bodies change when they get around real trainers and programs.

Think about some inner city kid with kk facilities and no tools to get better. Just relying on pure talent and athletic ability. As that kid learns and develops, you re-assess where you think he can be.

I don’t disagree with you, I’m just saying the whole concept of a ceiling is misleading.   A ceiling implies this is the best a player can be if things work out in his favor.   And that judgment turns out to be wrong sometimes.  It’s not because his ceiling changed, it’s because someone’s judgment about his ceiling was wrong.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I don’t disagree with you, I’m just saying the whole concept of a ceiling is misleading.   A ceiling implies this is the best a player can be if things work out in his favor.   And that judgment turns out to be wrong sometimes.  It’s not because his ceiling changed, it’s because someone’s judgment about his ceiling was wrong.   

Well the last part is where to here incorrect.

Again, you either have to be comfortable with saying everyone’s ceiling is superstar or understand that things change and when they do, ceilings can also change.

You can’t assume a player will get stronger or add velo or put in the time needed. You are solely basing ceiling off of the talent they have at that time but talent isn’t stagnant.  If it were, then you would have a point.

I think this argument applies more to college players. You have much more of a sampling of their talent. They have largely grown up physically and mentally are much further along.