How Will Nick Hit in 2009?

[KakesForROY]

As I mentioned in the 2009 WAR Projections thread, I was hoping to get some community discussion going on how O's players will be producing next year.

Going back through the posts, it seems that there's a consensus for Adam Jones around a .275/.325/.425 line, that Koji Uehara will pitch around 150-160 innings with an ERA in the 4.50-4.75 range, and that Garrett Olson will pitch around 160 innings with an ERA in the 4.75-5.00 range.

Since asking for general projections didn't get much response (though, in fairness, it was only one day), maybe we should go one player at a time.

There's been a lot of talk about what kind of contract Nick Markakis will get, but that should depend largely on his expected future production.

I think Nick's going to be worth whatever they (hopefully) give him, with a .301/.401/.493 line in 650 PA in 2009.

So, do you all think Nick will keeping hitting as well as he did last year or improving, or do you think he'll regress a little bit like most independent projection system do?

I'm going to be updating the roster/projections at http://frostkingbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/01/updated-os-war-sheet.html

and eventually Beyond The Box Score will get all the team projections together to see how the upcoming season may shape up.

Also, I was hoping to put this up with a poll, but couldn't figure out how to do so - I'd appreciate if someone could point out in what way I was being stupid about that.

[El Gordo]

If Nick were still single I'd be inclined to predict improvement. But with a family on the way he may be somewhat distracted. Pretty big change for a young guy to handle in stride.:scratchchinhmm:

[YaBoyTopher]

I think Nick will put up a line of 315/415/510, 25HR 10SB ....thats my projection and I actually think its pretty realistic, I think from this point forward Nick is going to be approaching Berkman type numbers with a little less power.

[Moose Milligan]

Nick has tacked on roughly 50 OPS points every year. Is it not a stretch to think he can approach .950 this year?

I think he can OPS anywhere from .900-.950 this year and if I had to pick I think he falls around .930. Just a hunch.

At the very least, I think he has a year like last year.

[Frobby]

I will give you my totally biased opinion.

Nick Markakis rocks. You can look at his progression from Aberdeen to Delmarva to Frederick to Bowie to the majors, and then years 1 -3, and see he has gotten better every single year. And he's only 25 this season.

You can watch him play, and literally see him getting better not only year-by-year, but month-by-month. You can see him identify weaknesses and work to eliminate or minimize them.

So if you really want to know what I think, in my heart of hearts, I think Nick has another 50-point OPS jump in him, just like he did each of the last two years. I think you'll see his BA rise 15 points or so as the umpires start giving him the borderline ball/strike calls that have gone against him as a younger player, and I think you'll see him turning on more pitches and driving them out of the park. So, put me down for .320/.410/.535.

Now, when I make my projections I won't be that optimistic, because I try to be more conservative. But if you want to know what I really feel is going to happen, see above.

[Mackus]

Is "very well" a good enough answer?

[KakesForROY]

Wow, and I thought I was being too optimistic. I think he does have a .335/.450/.550 season or two in him, but just repeating last year would be great.

I'm a stat guy so going too far past the projection systems (even the most optimistic ones) worries me. I know I'm prone to being too kind to O's players, but given the response thus far I feel pretty comfortable going with the 300/400/500 ish line I've got now.

Going into last year I was hoping he would finally use his great batting eye to up his walk total, and he did. Now he just needs to use his power to increase his HR total, and he'll be a beast at the plate. I think he can do it, considering the power he's able to show to the opposite field.

[Sports Guy]

Better than I could.

[O's84]

Extend him.

[Brady9Fan]

If Nick were still single I'd be inclined to predict improvement. But with a family on the way he may be somewhat distracted. Pretty big change for a young guy to handle in stride.:scratchchinhmm:

Definitely a good observation. Plus, the team could be a big distraction as well if it doesn't improve. Being on a team that is in 4th place or lower for 11 straight seasons wears on people, and Nick has seen this for 3-4 years. I'm surprised Jason Bay put up decent numbers in Pittsburgh for this same reason.

[Old#5fan]

I think Markakis has hit his ceiling already, and unless he bulks up more I don't see his power ever significantly increasing. Back in the rhoid days all he would have needed to do was follow the Raffy Palmeiro needle regimine and no doubt he would be suddenly out of the blue, hammering 35 homers on a yearly basis.

I seriously think if and when they lose Roberts (either trade or to free agency) that Markakis should be the Orioles leadoff hitter for the next 10 years as that is what he is best suited for. He will never be a three or four hitter which is what they really wanted and needed out of him and what he was drafted to fulfill.

[Frobby]

I think Markakis has hit his ceiling already, and unless he bulks up more I don't see his power ever significantly increasing. Back in the rhoid days all he would have needed to do was follow the Raffy Palmeiro needle regimine and no doubt he would be suddenly out of the blue, hammering 35 homers on a yearly basis. I seriousythink if and when they lose Roberts (either trade or to free agency) that Markakis should be the Orioles leadoff hitter for the next 10 years as that is what he is best suited for. He will never be a three or four hitter which is what they really wanted and needed out of him and what he was drafted to fulfill.

Rather than arguing with you, I'll simply say that it will be interesting to see whether anything happens in 2009 that changes your opinion.

[Moose Milligan]

Rather than arguing with you, I'll simply say that it will be interesting to see whether anything happens in 2009 that changes your opinion.

:laughlol:

Watch Nick hit 35 bombs this year and have OldFan complain that he's on roids and he's not that good because guys back in the day didn't have to juice to hit the longball.

Way to go, OldFan, you never disappoint :laughlol:

[Old#5fan]

Rather than arguing with you, I'll simply say that it will be interesting to see whether anything happens in 2009 that changes your opinion.

Fair enough. I am not nearly as enamored with him as you and the majority of others here seem to be. He is a very good but not great player. I think he would no doubt function quite sucessfully in the leadoff spot, but until Roberts goes will continue to hit in the two hole which also isn't a bad spot for him in a lineup. He just doesn't have the pop to hit in the heart of a lineup. He is certainly not a guy that I would want to build a team around, more like a nice addition to a playoff ready team which is why I would bet my house that he eventually ditches the Orioles for the Yankees or Boston. I wonder how much OH love he will garner then?:laughlol:

[Moose Milligan]

Fair enough. I am not nearly as enamored with him as you and the majority of others here seem to be. He is a very good but not great player. I think he would no doubt function quite sucessfully in the leadoff spot, but until Roberts goes will continue to hit in the two hole which also isn't a bad spot for him in a lineup. He just doesn't have the pop to hit in the heart of a lineup.

Yeah, but he's a gold glove caliber defender, you can't deny that.