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Kjerstad/Beavers/Fabian


Frobby

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I heard an interesting discussion today of which of these players has the highest ceiling, and which has the highest floor.  The gist was that Fabian has the highest floor because he’s a legit CF defensively even if his hitting disappoints, and Beavers was thought to have the highest ceiling because of all-around skills.   What are your thoughts about this?

My view is that Fabian having the highest floor due to his defense is probably correct.  On ceiling, though, I think there’s a reason Kjerstad was picked no. 2 overall while the other two were 2nd/3rd rounders.  I think he has the highest ceiling on offense for sure, and the margin is probably enough where I’d say he has the highest ceiling overall despite being well below the other two defensively.   

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I heard an interesting discussion today of which of these players has the highest ceiling, and which has the highest floor.  The gist was that Fabian has the highest floor because he’s a legit CF defensively even if his hitting disappoints, and Beavers was thought to have the highest ceiling because of all-around skills.   What are your thoughts about this?

My view is that Fabian having the highest floor due to his defense is probably correct.  On ceiling, though, I think there’s a reason Kjerstad was picked no. 2 overall while the other two were 2nd/3rd rounders.  I think he has the highest ceiling on offense for sure, and the margin is probably enough where I’d say he has the highest ceiling overall despite being well below the other two defensively.   

I think I agree with the conclusion that came from the discussion.    BA has Beavers rated even or ahead of Kjerstad in every category.   Hard to believe Beavers has as much power but he certainly runs better and is thought to be a better defender.   I think Beavers has the highest ceiling as well.   Apparently, the thinking is that he's got as much power as Kjerstad.

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33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My view is that Fabian having the highest floor due to his defense is probably correct.  On ceiling, though, I think there’s a reason Kjerstad was picked no. 2 overall while the other two were 2nd/3rd rounders.  I think he has the highest ceiling on offense for sure, and the margin is probably enough where I’d say he has the highest ceiling overall despite being well below the other two defensively.   

I think I agree with you re Heston. When he was drafted there were videos of him playing LF chasing a deep drive in the alley and running the bases. He seemed fast, I don't know if we had sprint data from then or not. If he is 100% then at his age he should be able to get back to that condition level. His bat was the draw and comments from the AFL indicate his power has recovered. If his bat to ball skills are there, he could blow up this year.

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I agree with Fabian having the highest floor.  But I do think there's some debate with Kjerstad/Beavers.

Kjerstad's AFL saw some big boy power combined with some K% concerns too.  

Beavers was considered a first rounder by many outlets, but the quirky swing knocked him out of the 1st round.  FG has Beavers with the higher game power and raw power ceilings but the lower hit tool (because of the quirky swing) limits actually tapping into those skills.  The changes to his swing adds risk to whether or not he'll reach his ceiling (even if it's higher).  If he can progress enough to get promoted to Bowie, then we'll really be able to see if his swing changes have made his ceiling more accessible.  

 

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2 minutes ago, owknows said:

Kjerstad will eclipse the other two with the bat.

And play reasonable enough defense to be the highest overall ceiling.

I think there has been a general lowering of expectations following his illness, but we're finally getting a glimpse of his potential.

 

Not to nitpick but you're saying that Kjerstad will turn out the best.   Are you also saying he has the highest potential of all three?

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1 hour ago, owknows said:

Is this one of those "if a ceiling collapses in the woods, does it make a sound?" kind of questions? :)

LOL.   I didn't think so.   I think Kjertad's ceiling is a 30-40 homer type of slugger who will play either average or a little below average defense in RF (in OPACY).      I think Beavers ceiling is a 25+ homer player who can probably play average to plus defense in RF and probably be good enough to handle LF in OPACY.    According to BA's grades, Beavers actually is a 60 in the power department and Kjerstad is a 55 but I don't buy that.   I think they are nicking Kjerstad based on what he showed at Delmarva and Aberdeen last year.    I think their offensive profiles are probably pretty similar but Beavers gives you the added bonuses of speed and defense.   Not that he's going to be a base stealer but someone who is more likely to take the extra base, go from 1st to 3rd and score from 2B.

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Longenhagen has Kjerstad at 60/60 raw power, 45/55 game power.  Beavers is 60/70 and 30/60.

Tony has it 65/65 and 30/60 for Kjerstad, 50/55 and 35/50 for Beavers.  So, opinions differ.  

Honestly, I hadn’t realized Beavers’ power tool was so highly regarded.  
 

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard an interesting discussion today of which of these players has the highest ceiling, and which has the highest floor.  The gist was that Fabian has the highest floor because he’s a legit CF defensively even if his hitting disappoints, and Beavers was thought to have the highest ceiling because of all-around skills.   What are your thoughts about this?

My view is that Fabian having the highest floor due to his defense is probably correct.  On ceiling, though, I think there’s a reason Kjerstad was picked no. 2 overall while the other two were 2nd/3rd rounders.  I think he has the highest ceiling on offense for sure, and the margin is probably enough where I’d say he has the highest ceiling overall despite being well below the other two defensively.   

I always thought the "reason Kjerstad was picked no. 2 overall" so that the O's could go overslot on Carter Baumler in round 5.

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From what I've read, Beavers is a freak show athlete with 5 tools.  I think his ceiling is the highest of the group.  He could be an impact on both sides of the field.  At 6'4" * ;) those long limbs generate a ton of power.  

I do think Kjerstad is dinged because of his illness.  He could easily surprise this year and end up being the best of the 3.  Pretty awesome having these guys in the system as the second wave.  

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Kjerstad's in the running with Mayo and Basallo for Aprils its hard to wait for.

The illness has perhaps dinged Kjerstad's overall forecast from high 1st round to 2nd round-ish, but even so the shape of his expected production for me is fundamentally different than Beavers/Fabian, who I understand to have defensive value.

How much swing and miss will Kjerstad have as the rust finishes coming off?    The most buillish draft-time report I heard on Kjerstad from Ralph Lifshitz with Prospects Live raved about rare contact ability for a power hitter, even vis-a-vis Torkelson.    Who knows what if any of that is left after being forced to stand down from hitting?

Overall I guess Jay Gibbons type production may now be a mid or better case outcome instead of the worst case, but I haven't given up all hope yet whatever Elias thought he saw might still be there.    Even a Gibbons-ish forecast may beat Santander at $$$/WAR in '24.

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19 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard an interesting discussion today of which of these players has the highest ceiling, and which has the highest floor.  The gist was that Fabian has the highest floor because he’s a legit CF defensively even if his hitting disappoints, and Beavers was thought to have the highest ceiling because of all-around skills.   What are your thoughts about this?

My view is that Fabian having the highest floor due to his defense is probably correct.  On ceiling, though, I think there’s a reason Kjerstad was picked no. 2 overall while the other two were 2nd/3rd rounders.  I think he has the highest ceiling on offense for sure, and the margin is probably enough where I’d say he has the highest ceiling overall despite being well below the other two defensively.   

It's hard to argue with the conclusion since Fabian has major league defensive center field abilities right now. 

Kjerstad did not show well last year until he got to the hitter friendly AFL but Aberdeen and the Sally League as a whole seems like a bad hitters league (I'm guessing the lighting/batter's eyes are not good) so it's hard to judge to him too harshly. Now saying that, he's got the best pure power of them all so he's got a nice ceiling offensively and why he's higher than both on the top prospect list.

Beavers is really hard to judge for me because the talent is there, but I need to see him over a whole season before getting too high of low, but he seems to be the guy who could end up the best all around player of the three, though I wouldn't rule Fabian out in this department.

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