Jackson Holliday 2023

[Bemorewins]

53 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

It would make the team better of the performance gap between the OF he would be replacing is greater than the performance gap for the IF  he would have otherwise replaced. Suppose Ortiz was at SS and D.J. Stewart was in left. Would you rather have Holiday replace Ortiz or Stewart?

DJ Stewart is not in LF though. We have a guy who made the All-Star team playing there.

Is Ortiz a better hitter than Hays?

[Bemorewins]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Example 1.   If Joey Ortiz is a legitimate GG shortstop and an average to above average offensive player at SS and Holliday is an average defensively ML SS AND Holliday is an above average defensive LF/CF then it makes sense to me.     Are you assuming that Holliday won’t hit as well as an OF or will not be good defensively?   Of course, that gets factored into the equation.

No, I think Holliday will most likely hit anywhere. But the position that you play matters for offensive production when determining a play’s value. i.e. the offensive production that Adley provides at C is incredibly valuable as compared to his other peers at the position. But if he were to be a 1B instead of a C, that would not be the case.

Gunnar is probably the player who will provide the combination of highest productivity between offense and defense at SS. If that is the case, it makes more sense to me, to leave him there until/if he proves that is not going to be the case. I’m fine with Holliday playing 2B which has some carryover/translation to SS (where he has gotten most of his pro reps). I just don’t see any evidence in moving him to CF where he is almost assuredly to be a worse defender than Mullins and/or Bradfield Jr. Or moving him to LF when we already have an Allstar there currently, and he has never played the outfield and we have one of the hardest LFs to cover in the Majors…. Just so Ortiz and/or Westburg can be more comfortable in the INF? - They are not nearly as good as he is as baseball players. He’s like Gunnar in terms of being in a different/special talent tier.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

No, I think Holliday will most likely hit anywhere. But the position that you play matters for offensive production when determining a play’s value. i.e. the offensive production that Adley provides at C is incredibly valuable as compared to his other peers at the position. But if he were to be a 1B instead of a C, that would not be the case.

Gunnar is probably the player who will provide the combination of highest productivity between offense and defense at SS. If that is the case, it makes more sense to me, to leave him there until/if he proves that is not going to be the case. I’m fine with Holliday playing 2B which has some carryover/translation to SS (where he has gotten most of his pro reps). I just don’t see any evidence in moving him to CF where he is almost assuredly to be a worse defender than Mullins and/or Bradfield Jr. Or moving him to LF when we already have an Allstar there currently, and he has never played the outfield and we have one of the hardest LFs to cover in the Majors…. Just so Ortiz and/or Westburg can be more comfortable in the INF? - They are not nearly as good as he is as baseball players. He’s like Gunnar in terms of being in a different/special talent tier.

It’s not so Ortiz or Westburg can be more comfortable in the IF.   It’s going on the hypothetical that Ortiz and Henderson are significantly better defenders at SS.   Now, it’s less likely to be the case at 2B.

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s not so Ortiz or Westburg can be more comfortable in the IF.   It’s going on the hypothetical that Ortiz and Henderson are significantly better defenders at SS.   Now, it’s less likely to be the case at 2B.

I’m absolutely fine with Gunnar staying at SS. It is doubtful that any negligible upgrade that another player will give us over him defensively will make up for the tremendous value that his offense gives you at that position. 

If this is the case, I don’t think it would be a bad thing at all to slot Holliday at 2B. He is likely to give us tremendous surplus value at that position.

[brucewayne]

If Holliday can play a Major League 3B, SS or 2B then you would be an absolutely fool to move him to LF. It's much easier to find production out of the LF position than it is for SS and 2B. I think he ends up at 2B. Seems to fit 2B well, although Keith Law says Holliday is a true MLB shortstop. So maybe I'm underestimating him. 

Does anybody know what Ryan O'Hearn's OPS is this season? Take a guess. It is .856 and that is excellent. That is production out of your lineup. O'Hearn plays 1B and DH. It's relatively easy to find random production at 1B and DH. Plug Holliday at SS or 2B and you never have to worry about finding production from a position that is hard to find production from. 

Guys, are we really doing this? Seriously? Are we are really going to squander 6 years of production at SS or 2B? That's why I support Gunnar starting at SS over Mateo. Yes, Mateo is the slightly better glove, but he can't hit. If you have the chance to take Mateo's bat out of the lineup then do it. 

 

[brucewayne]

32 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m absolutely fine with Gunnar staying at SS. It is doubtful that any negligible upgrade that another player will give us over him defensively will make up for the tremendous value that his offense gives you at that position. 

If this is the case, I don’t think it would be a bad thing at all to slot Holliday at 2B. He is likely to give us tremendous surplus value at that position.

Agreed. Absolutely nuts to turn down production like Holliday can provide at SS or 2B. Ridiculous. 

[brucewayne]

Catcher is the important position on the field. Anybody ever notice how Molina, Posada, Posey, Sanchez have ring(s)? It's because the advantage in having an MLB catcher who can hit cannot be overstated. What happened when Adley was called up? We turned our season around. That is the value in having a guy play a premium position and still hit. Other teams can't find production out of their catcher. You can't throw that away. SS and 2B don't have the same positional value as Catcher, but the point remains at a smaller scale. 

[brucewayne]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Need and players still on the roster could determine this. Holliday is a good overall defender at SS, but he's behind Ortiz and probably Gunnar (do to his plus arm) for now defensively at SS. If Westburg settles in at 2B, and Ortiz is up and playing well at SS, it might make sense to see what he could do in LF due to his plus speed. 

Now, no one wants to take a guy off the dirt if they don't have to, but Holliday's average at best SS arm does fall behind both Ortiz and Gunnar at the moment. I haven't seen anything that makes me think Holliday can't play SS, but just that he's behind the other two for me. Now moving Gunnar to 3B makes sense because with everyday reps there he would be a GG in my opinion. 

I guess you know you have a pretty good group of players already when you can see a scenario where Holliday ends up in the outfield on this team. Again, not a swipe at Holliday, but more about how good Ortiz and even Gunnar is at SS.

Holliday is 19. Ortiz is 25. Prospects all are about future projection. Holliday projects as elite SS and player because hes 19 freaking years old. Can you imagine what a prime Holiday could do? Ortiz has a FAR lower ceiling. What will a prime Ortiz look like? The same as he does now. Hes already reached his ceiling.

[e16bball]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

The kid is hitting .396/.448/.642 at Bowie, at age 19.  It’s only 13 games, so I won’t go too crazy about it yet, but that’s insane.  

I was curious to know how insane that is. His wRC+ thus far is 194. Sure to come down from there, probably substantially.

But since 2015, only two kids at age 19 have managed a wRC+ over 150 in 50+ PAs at the AA level. Their names were Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Ronald Acuna, Jr.

Putting aside that Matt Holliday missed an obvious chance to name his kid after himself, that’s pretty lofty company for the junior Holliday. Acuna is arguably the best position player in the world, and even in a dreadfully down season with the bat, Little Big Vlad would be a 4ish WAR player if he could play a passable SS.

Edited August 8, 2023 by e16bball

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

Holliday is 19. Ortiz is 25. Prospects all are about future projection. Holliday projects as elite SS and player because hes 19 freaking years old. Can you imagine what a prime Holiday could do? Ortiz has a FAR lower ceiling. What will a prime Ortiz look like? The same as he does now. Hes already reached his ceiling.

What does any of that have to do with what I said? 

As a newbie I'll assume you don't know who I am so we'll just forget the fact you just explained things I clearly know.

Do you understand that just because I think Ortiz is a better defensive SS than Holliday does not mean I think he's a better prospect? Of course Holliday is the better prospect.

As for where he plays, everything I said is true. It depends on who is still here. If Ortiz is playing a GG shortstop and hitting when Holliday arrives, they are not just going to bench him for Holliday, especially when Holliday has better foot speed and may be able to play Camden's big LF or CF. 

Now, I'm not saying that he should be moved to the outfield, just that if Gunner, Ortiz and Westburg are entrenched at 3B/SS/2B, Holliday could provide value in the outfield potentially (we have no idea how he would look at there so potentially is the key).

Now, could Holliday still move over to 2B and be a better defensive 2B than Westburg, sure, but then where does Westburg go?

Again, this is not a slight on Holliday if he fills a need in the outfield for a contending team at some point next year. Would I move him out there now, no way. He should be developed as a SS and 2B in my opinion. But next year if there could be playing time available for him and Ortiz is entrenched in SS and Westburg at 2B, then i do think you start giving him so outfield reps as well.

He can always move back on the dirt.

 

[George Zuverink]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

DJ Stewart is not in LF though. We have a guy who made the All-Star team playing there.

Is Ortiz a better hitter than Hays?

My point was simply that the statement you made If you play one of your best/most talented players way out of position (transition from INF to OF), how is that helping the team? could lead to sub optimal decisions without considering which player the best/most talented player would be replacing. If it would be one of our current crop of OF, I agree I'd want to keep Holiday in the IF. 

[brucewayne]

50 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What does any of that have to do with what I said? 

As a newbie I'll assume you don't know who I am so we'll just forget the fact you just explained things I clearly know.

Do you understand that just because I think Ortiz is a better defensive SS than Holliday does not mean I think he's a better prospect? Of course Holliday is the better prospect.

As for where he plays, everything I said is true. It depends on who is still here. If Ortiz is playing a GG shortstop and hitting when Holliday arrives, they are not just going to bench him for Holliday, especially when Holliday has better foot speed and may be able to play Camden's big LF or CF. 

Now, I'm not saying that he should be moved to the outfield, just that if Gunner, Ortiz and Westburg are entrenched at 3B/SS/2B, Holliday could provide value in the outfield potentially (we have no idea how he would look at there so potentially is the key).

Now, could Holliday still move over to 2B and be a better defensive 2B than Westburg, sure, but then where does Westburg go?

Again, this is not a slight on Holliday if he fills a need in the outfield for a contending team at some point next year. Would I move him out there now, no way. He should be developed as a SS and 2B in my opinion. But next year if there could be playing time available for him and Ortiz is entrenched in SS and Westburg at 2B, then i do think you start giving him so outfield reps as well.

He can always move back on the dirt.

 

There are almost no comps for Holliday. 19 years old dont produce like this very often. Hes basically Soto, Harper, Trout right now. Well probably a step down because he doesnt have quite the same power. Put him at SS or 2B and you have a massive advantage over just about any team in the league. Its like Adley at catcher. He gives us an advantage because hes a hitting catcher. Move Holliday to LF and that advantage disappears unless he can OPS 1.000 

[CharmCityHokie]

16 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

There are almost no comps for Holliday. 19 years old dont produce like this very often. Hes basically Soto, Harper, Trout right now. Well probably a step down because he doesnt have quite the same power. Put him at SS or 2B and you have a massive advantage over just about any team in the league. Its like Adley at catcher. He gives us an advantage because hes a hitting catcher. Move Holliday to LF and that advantage disappears unless he can OPS 1.000 

I mean, Manny Machado was smashing dingers in the Majors at 19. I'm not saying Holliday hasn't absolutely impressed, he has, but there are plenty of comps. 

[brucewayne]

4 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I mean, Manny Machado was smashing dingers in the Majors at 19. I'm not saying Holliday hasn't absolutely impressed, he has, but there are plenty of comps. 

Manny was 20 when he debuted and had a .294OBP in 51 games. And had and had a .352OBP in AA. Manny is a great player and will make the HOF. That said, at 19 there is no comparison here. Holliday>Machado at 19.

[wildcard]

Faster than a speeding bullet.  More powerful than a locomotive.  He leaps tall buildings in a single bound.