Jackson Holliday 2023

[SemperFi]

18 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

The hit tool is the most important tool. Athleticism is secondary. A cannon arm never hit .300 and never OBP .400

Sure, that's why Termarr Johnson was picked fourth last year, but the hit tool is the most difficult by far to evaluate.  Unless they have a truly elite hit tool guys go as far as their defense takes them and that's why athleticism and an arm are valued.  It also allows them to play multiple positions-which is valued.  

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Mr-splash said:

Holliday over Druw Jones is looking really good right now. Most analysts and fans had Jones as the superior prospect. Why? 

 

Jones is the more fast twitchy athlete with a better arm. But Holliday is still an above average athlete. Heres the thing. They are ballplayers, not boxers. Who cares who has more raw athleticism? Holliday has enough. Are they getting in the ring? No they're on a baseball diamond.

 

When I look at a ballplayer the most important thing is can you play ball? Holliday has a natural feel for the game. Hes a ballplayer.

 

Also, the fact that he is/was less physically developed than other kids his age means there is more upside for power. Not saying hes going to be a 40 homer guy, but I think he will grow into more power as he matures.

It's looking AWESOME right now!  

Holliday added a ton of strength between his Jr. and Sr. year of HS.  Only the hit tool was a plus before his Sr. year.  During his Sr. EVERY aspect of his game (power, arm, speed...) developed significantly.  Prior to his Sr. year, there were questions about whether Jackson could stick at SS due to his limited arm strength.  That's a big differentiator compared to Jones who had a solid history and a plus CF defensive floor.  IMO, it had to do with the limited length of track record more than anything else.  

FWIW, I was in the Jones camp but an extremely glad they chose Jackson!

[Bemorewins]

Here’s the thing for me - If Holliday is as special as he appears to be, you go ahead and give him the JRod contract or similar. You lock up you star of the future and you have a piece to build around for years to come.

However, because we didn’t take care of Adley, if we chose to do this first, it in all likelihood will become a problem. 

I hate to say this, but this is where the lack of leadership from ownership will really hurt us and possibly ruin the special thing that Elias and Sign have help to construct.

They can only do so much. When it comes time to making these big time investments, that is on ownership. For the sake of the ultimate success of the franchises future, we need to lock up/extend Adley AND Holliday (I don’t expect that we can do Gunnar with both of these 2 though that would be beyond great). This is what competent franchises do. You don’t pick Uber special guys at 1:1 and then let them walk or trade them “because they are too expensive”. We are going to have to pay the piper for greatness. We can be the Astros/Braves Or the Nats/Royals? The choice will ultimately be Angelos’. Which is a very scary proposition  

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The money and to a degree the winning will be the major factors.

I tend to agree these are the primary factors.  As @emmett16said, we don't know what his priorities are.  The fact that Boras Co. is his agent makes me assume it's money.  But for the son of a MLBer, money might not be as big a deal for him as it would have been for others.  

The hope is that this core of young studs loves playing and winning together and wants to extend at near market rates AND management finds team value in that AND ownership finds business value in that.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I tend to agree these are the primary factors.  As @emmett16said, we don't know what his priorities are.  The fact that Boras Co. is his agent makes me assume it's money.  But for the son of a MLBer, money might not be as big a deal for him as it would have been for others.  

The hope is that this core of young studs loves playing and winning together and wants to extend at near market rates AND management finds team value in that AND ownership finds business value in that.

Wonder if you were to offer it right now, if that makes him think about it more than if you wait 2-3 years from now.

 

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wonder if you were to offer it right now, if that makes him think about it more than if you wait 2-3 years from now.

 

I think if we want him long term, now is the time to offer the deal.  He's only going to get more expensive as days go by.  If the forecasting team deems him the man, pay him.  

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I think if we want him long term, now is the time to offer the deal.  He's only going to get more expensive as days go by.  If the forecasting team deems him the man, pay him.  

I agree with you in that there is prudence is getting a deal done with him sooner rather than later. However, I don’t want it to cause issues with the big league club in the process.

IMO - We gotta pay Holliday AND Adley both. Adley is the face of our turnaround and the face of our franchise currently. To not pay him would be sending a horrible message. And for all we know, because he is not a Boras client it may be easier to extend him than our other 2 cornerstone pieces.

[Sports Guy]

Offer him a 9 year deal..9/132-140.  See if you can get 10/175 but 9 allows him to sign his next deal going into his age 29 season.

Pay him 45isM in those 6 pre free agency years. 90ishM the 3 free agent years.

That’s a lot of guaranteed money for a 19 year old to say to. Plus, you tell him that he’s the starting SS on OD next year if he stays healthy. 
 

Maybe they still turn it down but it would be worth the ask.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Sports Guy

[IPlayGM]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Offer him a 9 year deal..9/132-140.  See if you can get 10/175 but 9 allows him to sign his next deal going into his age 29 season.

Pay him 45isM in those 6 pre free agency years. 90ishM the 3 free agent years.

That’s a lot of guaranteed money for a 19 year old to say to. Plays, you tell him that he’s the starting SS on OD next year if he stays healthy. 
 

Maybe they still turn it down but it would be worth the ask.

I would have zero issue with that contract.

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Offer him a 9 year deal..9/132-140.  See if you can get 10/175 but 9 allows him to sign his next deal going into his age 29 season.

Pay him 45isM in those 6 pre free agency years. 90ishM the 3 free agent years.

That’s a lot of guaranteed money for a 19 year old to say to. Plays, you tell him that he’s the starting SS on OD next year if he stays healthy. 
 

Maybe they still turn it down but it would be worth the ask.

If they turn it down, you know where you stand and can plan accordingly for the future.  I imagine they are having these conversations with all the player's agents at all times.  I'd be shocked if they had not floated some potential deals to his agent already.  It sure will be interesting to see what happens.  The Orioles fan in me expects to see them all walk in FA or traded with two years left.  

[emmett16]

21 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with you in that there is prudence is getting a deal done with him sooner rather than later. However, I don’t want it to cause issues with the big league club in the process.

IMO - We gotta pay Holliday AND Adley both. Adley is the face of our turnaround and the face of our franchise currently. To not pay him would be sending a horrible message. And for all we know, because he is not a Boras client it may be easier to extend him than our other 2 cornerstone pieces.

As much as I love Adley, we have him for 5 more years and he's a catcher.  Who knows what he looks like after 5 years of abuse behind the plate(especially at the rate they are playing him).  I think he is a riskier proposition, and we have some depth at the position coming up behind him. 

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Offer him a 9 year deal..9/132-140.  See if you can get 10/175 but 9 allows him to sign his next deal going into his age 29 season.

Pay him 45isM in those 6 pre free agency years. 90ishM the 3 free agent years.

That’s a lot of guaranteed money for a 19 year old to say to. Plays, you tell him that he’s the starting SS on OD next year if he stays healthy. 
 

Maybe they still turn it down but it would be worth the ask.

That seems on the low side of things. Isn’t that less that what JRod got?

[Billy F-Face3]

There's two players at the top of my priority list to extend and both have proven they can handle the Major League level as cornerstones of the franchise.

 

1. Cedric Mullins

 

2.Adley Rutschman

 

And the tricky part is that a smart GM would try to set a cap at age 32, so that complicates matters more.

 

I think it's premature to talk about extending a player who was only drafted out of high school 10 months ago and hasn't even played a full season of professional baseball, let alone, Major League Baseball.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That seems on the low side of things. Isn’t that less that what JRod got?

JRod’s deal is complicated with lots of options, etc…his deal is also for longer, which I don’t think works here.

At its core, it’s 210 for 12 years in terms of real guarantees.he would only need 70-75M for the next 3 years to top that. This deal sets him up to earn more guaranteed money long term than that.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

As much as I love Adley, we have him for 5 more years and he's a catcher.  Who knows what he looks like after 5 years of abuse behind the plate(especially at the rate they are playing him).  I think he is a riskier proposition, and we have some depth at the position coming up behind him. 

Adley is the leader of the team and face of the franchise. He will be a multi-time Allstar and probably silver slugger winner at some point. His batting ability will play anywhere even if he can’t be a catcher.

Not paying him to just pay Holliday will be a problem in that locker room I promise you that. We don’t need to make unforced errors and create unnecessary problems for ourselves just to “go cheap” and avoid assuming any risk. There will be a risk in the trade that we will have to make at mid season to acquire a front line starter. There will be risk in who we decide to keep and who we decide to move. And many more risks will have to be undertaken if we want to build something special.

Adley and Holliday should be the type of risks that we are willing to take. They are 1:1 elite/special talents. You don’t just simply replace them with the next guy. That type of thinking can lead to organizational arrogance that can really sink your franchise back to mediocre. Special is not replaceable.