Poll- Who is More Likely to Win a Gold Glove

[Old#5fan]

As Frobby already said, I'm not talking about errors and fielding percentage. I'm talking about things that mean something - like Fielding Win Share, FRAA, UZR, +/-. Fielding numbers are just coming online that are in the same ballpark as hitting numbers in reliability. The ones that retroactively go back and remove a lot of biases from traditional numbers for historical players will never be as good as today's play-by-play metrics but they're still leaps and bounds ahead of errors, fielding percentage, and chances per game.

I understand that people are still skeptical of fielding numbers because even the advanced stuff was horribly misleading only 10 or 15 years ago. Today that's simply not the case.

I'll always take some combination of advanced numbers and mass consensus (like Tango's fielding survey) over a handful of fans' exclamations about superhuman plays, or a recitation of Gold Glove totals.

That is your choice but don't act like superhuman plays don't exist, just because you rarely see them yourself. Your eyes are not the only eyes out there now are they? Did you ever see Willie Mays patrol CF? I did, and he made some plays that would qualify on a regular basis. They don't show up in the stats either as to the extent of how amazing they truly were if you witnessed them. To discount this as bogus is a mistake on your part, despite what you think.

[Old#5fan]

You only think that because it has only been recently that good metrics have been available to judge that.

Fielding slumps and streaks just like everything else.

True, but not to the extent of hitting slumps. At least not for players who establish themselves as exceptionally talented (or Gold Glove Winners) defensively.

[SilentJames]

True, but not to the extent of hitting slumps. At least not for players who establish themselves as exceptionally talented (or Gold Glove Winners) defensively.

So someone who has established themselves as a hitter is more subject to hitting slumps? What?

What logic are you working on? Tejada has always been considered a solid fielder, but he had a terrible slump in his last year here and people were calling for his head. His reputation meant nothing during the slump.

I mean Dustin Pedroia won a gold glove last year, if he gets the dropsies for the first month of the 09 season no one will care how many GG's he has won.

[BRobinsonfan]

Just ask some of the other old timers....

Does Andy McPhail qualify?

[Old#5fan]

So someone who has established themselves as a hitter is more subject to hitting slumps? What?

What logic are you working on? Tejada has always been considered a solid fielder, but he had a terrible slump in his last year here and people were calling for his head. His reputation meant nothing during the slump.

I mean Dustin Pedroia won a gold glove last year, if he gets the dropsies for the first month of the 09 season no one will care how many GG's he has won.

No, perhaps I wan't clear. What I am espousing is that hitting slumps are more apt to occur than fielding slumps for great hitters and fielders. In other words a Great hitter is more apt to run into a hitting slump, than a Great Fielder running into a fielding slump. At least from my observation. An average hitter and fielder would also be the same.

However, a poor hitter will seem like in a perpetual slump and only on occasion get hot. A poor fielder will always be a poor fielder. Refer to Daniel Cabera for example. He will never be able to field properly.

[DrungoHazewood]

That is your choice but don't act like superhuman plays don't exist, just because you rarely see them yourself. Your eyes are not the only eyes out there now are they? Did you ever see Willie Mays patrol CF? I did, and he made some plays that would qualify on a regular basis. They don't show up in the stats either as to the extent of how amazing they truly were if you witnessed them. To discount this as bogus is a mistake on your part, despite what you think.

Whoever said that superhuman plays don't exist? They happen all the time. Well, great plays do. And they absolutely show up in the stats. A great play gets counted just like everything else. And in something like UZR it shows up as a play no one else would get credit for, or as an out-of-zone play that adds to the player's totals.

If you studied the state of the art in fielding stats you might know this and wouldn't be so dismissive of them.

[Frobby]

I'll always take some combination of advanced numbers and mass consensus (like Tango's fielding survey) over a handful of fans' exclamations about superhuman plays, or a recitation of Gold Glove totals.

This is why it was so gratifying to me when The Hardball Times ran its articles showing good statisical evidence that Brooks, Belanger and Blair were at the very top at their positions over the last 50 years. I no longer felt like some old codger telling my kids how everything was better back in the day.

I will say this -- based on what I saw of Jones last year, he should develop into the 2nd-best defensive CF the Orioles have ever had. And I can't think of a better defensive RF the Orioles have had than Markakis.

My all-time Orioles defensive team:

1B -- Murray

2B -- Grich

SS -- Belanger

3B -- Brooks

C --- Dempsey

LF -- Brady

CF -- Blair

RF -- Nick

P --- Palmer/Mussina (tie)

I'm going to give an obscure honorable mention at 1B to a little-remembered back-up named Tony Muser. IMO, he was actually the best defensive 1B the team ever had, he just didn't play enough to merit a spot on the all-time team.

[Old#5fan]

Whoever said that superhuman plays don't exist? They happen all the time. Well, great plays do. And they absolutely show up in the stats. A great play gets counted just like everything else. And in something like UZR it shows up as a play no one else would get credit for, or as an out-of-zone play that adds to the player's totals.

If you studied the state of the art in fielding stats you might know this and wouldn't be so dismissive of them.

You are right, I didn't know about them until now. If they would have had them back in Brook's day his UZR would have been off the charts. That, I can guarantee you!

[DrungoHazewood]

No, perhaps I wan't clear. What I am espousing is that hitting slumps are more apt to occur than fielding slumps for great hitters and fielders. In other words a Great hitter is more apt to run into a hitting slump, than a Great Fielder running into a fielding slump. At least from my observation. An average hitter and fielder would also be the same.

Please post evidence. Thanks.

"In God we trust; All others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

[BRobinsonfan]

True, because fielding is a skill that is more consistent from year to year than hitting. In other words a player is much less apt to stop being a superb defensive player year to year than he is offensively. In other words, fielding slumps are not remotely the same as hitting slumps. They don't last but maybe a game or so, and for players that are great fielders like Brooks they happen so infrequently, they don't even qualify as a slump.

Except in the case of your boy Luis Hernandez.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm going to give an obscure honorable mention at 1B to a little-remembered back-up named Tony Muser. IMO, he was actually the best defensive 1B the team ever had, he just didn't play enough to merit a spot on the all-time team.

The same Tony Muser that was a Royals manager a few years ago? Had no idea he played for us back in the day.

[Old#5fan]

This is why it was so gratifying to me when The Hardball Times ran its articles showing good statisical evidence that Brooks, Belanger and Blair were at the very top at their positions over the last 50 years. I no longer felt like some old codger telling my kids how everything was better back in the day.

I will say this -- based on what I saw of Jones last year, he should develop into the 2nd-best defensive CF the Orioles have ever had. And I can't think of a better defensive RF the Orioles have had than Markakis.

My all-time Orioles defensive team:

1B -- Murray

2B -- Grich

SS -- Belanger

3B -- Brooks

C --- Dempsey

LF -- Brady

CF -- Blair

RF -- Nick

P --- Palmer/Mussina (tie)

I'm going to give an obscure honorable mention at 1B to a little-remembered back-up named Tony Muser. IMO, he was actually the best defensive 1B the team ever had, he just didn't play enough to merit a spot on the all-time team.

Didn't the Orioles have Dwight Evans in RF for a year? I think he would be the best they ever had.

[DrungoHazewood]

You are right, I didn't know about them until now. If they would have had them back in Brook's day his UZR would have been off the charts. That, I can guarantee you!

I'm sure he would have been. He'd probably be at or near the top in all of history. But I am just as sure that he wouldn't have led the American League in UZR every single year for 16 years.

[DrungoHazewood]

Didn't the Orioles have Dwight Evans in RF for a year? I think he would be the best they ever had.

Yea, he played 67 games in right as a 39-year-old for the O's. If Dwight Evans was the best defensive RF in Orioles history I'll eat my shoe.

I know FRAA has some issues, but it has Dewey rated at three runs below average in the field that year. That can't be in the top 30 seasons by an Oriole right fielder.

[Moose Milligan]

Hey Drungo, can you give a laymans explanation of UZR?

I found this: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/ And my eyeballs started going numb.