Othani discussion

[interloper]

He would never come here, and we would never tie up that much money in one player. Not much to discuss, there is no world in which this happens. 

[Moose Milligan]

 

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

My response to this would be Ruth was a better pitcher than Ohtani and he was a better hitter than Ohtani.

Ohtani's career high OPS+ for a year is lower than the Babe's career mark.

And if it had existed, Babe should/would have won the 1916 Cy Young award.  As good as Ohtani has been on the mound, he has never been the league's best pitcher.

That's a fair response, but my response to your response was that 1916 was deadball which was a decidedly different game.  And let's not forget while the competition was very good at that time, it wasn't as good as it could have been.  

Ohtani might not have been the league's best pitcher, however his ERA+ last year was higher than Ruth's 1916 season with a FIP that's practically identical...granted, less innings but in an era where athletes aren't smoking cigarettes between innings and are training year round.  

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, interloper said:

He would never come here, and we would never tie up that much money in one player. Not much to discuss, there is no world in which this happens. 

Oh FFS.  C'mon, SG clearly laid out the fantasyland procedures for this in the OP to suspend reality and pretend like it would.  

 

[interloper]

44 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Is he the greatest talent to ever put on an MLB uniform?  Undoubtedly, 100% yes.  

 

Completely agree. 

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy that we can’t afford him, especially  with the cheap talent the org has.

They can afford a 130-150M payroll. So, do you want that much of the payroll with one guy?  That’s a tough question especially since he is 2 players in 1.  

If we're going to allocate 30% of our payroll to one player, he'd be the one to do it with.  It would almost certainly guarantee we couldn't consistently put a good team around him.

So can we afford him and have a healthy, functioning franchise around him?

I'd say no.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Pickles said:

If we're going to allocate 30% of our payroll to one player, he'd be the one to do it with.  It would almost certainly guarantee we couldn't consistently put a good team around him.

So can we afford him and have a healthy, functioning franchise around him?

I'd say no.

I'm 50/50 on it.  

If they were to sign him for a massive haul, do Adley, G-Rod and Gunnar sign contracts for 10/130-150 and are like "Hell yeah, let's play with this guy for the next 10 years and win games" or are they more inclined to be like "well, you backed up the truck for him, what are you gonna do for me?"

Hard to say.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That's a fair response, but my response to your response was that 1916 was deadball which was a decidedly different game.  And let's not forget while the competition was very good at that time, it wasn't as good as it could have been.  

Ohtani might not have been the league's best pitcher, however his ERA+ last year was higher than Ruth's 1916 season with a FIP that's practically identical...granted, less innings but in an era where athletes aren't smoking cigarettes between innings and are training year round.  

Well, we have these rate stats so we can compare across eras, so we can't use the rate stats and simeltaneously bemoan the "lack" of competition.

I'll concede that Ohtani has a chance to have a better pitching career than Ruth.  He's not there yet, but a few more good seasons would seal that.

However, he's not really in the same category as a hitter.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

If we're going to allocate 30% of our payroll to one player, he'd be the one to do it with.  It would almost certainly guarantee we couldn't consistently put a good team around him.

So can we afford him and have a healthy, functioning franchise around him?

I'd say no.

Yea, this aspect of things I vehemently disagree with. I think they could easily put a good team around him.  And by easily, I mean that it won’t stop them from operating the way they have been and be able to bring in lots of talent.

What this does do is give you very little margin for error IF he gets hurt. 

[Pickles]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I'm 50/50 on it.  

If they were to sign him for a massive haul, do Adley, G-Rod and Gunnar sign contracts for 10/130-150 and are like "Hell yeah, let's play with this guy for the next 10 years and win games" or are they more inclined to be like "well, you backed up the truck for him, what are you gonna do for me?"

Hard to say.  

In such a scenario we'd probably end up with like 110 million in 3 players.  That's leaving 40 million for the rest of your roster.

In the most literal sense of the word, they can afford him.

In the sense of can they afford him and continue to have a healthy, competitive franchise, I would lean no.  And that's not even factoring in the injury risks.

[sevastras]

21 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Helps them win the World Series four out of six years? Ohtani has been with the Angels for five years and they haven't even had a winning season with Ohtani on the team. That includes 2019 when Mike Trout was the AL MVP. Ohtani is a great player and a great story, but thinking one signing will magically bring World Series titles and economic bliss is fool's gold. Arod and the Texas Rangers are an excellent example of how similar justifications were made for the signing, the player performed great, the team included a lot of other star names, and yet the Rangers had losing seasons every year Arod was on the team despite Arod's AL MVP performance in 2003 and he was runner-up to the MVP in 2002. These things don't work out. 

I wasn’t saying that he would magically make the team World Series winners 4 out of 6, I was saying what if that signing was the extra guy that made it happen. To be clear, I think the Os could go to the WS sometime soon(this year to the next 4) without him. There is a very solid core coming up and if they make the playoffs, they have as good a chance as anyone. It is basically a statistical crap shoot once the playoffs start.  

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Adley’s really got his work cut out for him to win MVP. Haha. 
 

Ohtani might get 10/750 if both NY teams get involved. He’s not just the greatest FA of all time, but in this moment… he’s the greatest player of all time. 

As magnificent as Ohtani is, he hasn't been the best player on his team, much less the best player of all time. During Ohtani's time with the Angels (2018-2022), Ohtani has been less valuable than one of his teammates, a teammate who missed all but 39 games of the 2021 season (27.7 WAR for Trout in 2018-2022 versus 24.8 for Ohtani). Ohtani has had two great years as a two way player, one other excellent year as a hitter, and two pitching seasons lost to injury. He's a wonderful player, but he's only been a top WAR player for the past two years. He may be the most amazing player currently playing, but I think I think calling him the greatest player of all time is way, way over the top (even if you qualify it by "in this moment"...he came in second in WAR last year, had a poor season in 2020 (OPS+ of 79), didn't pitch in 2019, etc.). 

[24fps]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There used to be a yardstick that teams which spent more than 20% of their payroll on one player normally were not able to contend.  I don’t know how true that’s been the last 10-15 years.  

A quick look at Sportrac shows that Sherzer and Verlander at 12.9% of payroll, Judge at 14.9% and Cole at 13.44%, Bogaerts is a relative bargain at 10.74%.  12.5% of $400 million is $50 million and that is how I arrived at the suggested team payroll figure based on $50 million AAV.  Your 20% would require the payroll to be $250 million and currently only two teams reach that threshold - the Yankees and Mets.

[Too Tall]

Can he play quarterback too?  My answer is NO. He's a special player but it will be too much money tied up with one player for too long. Rather develop our own and then have the resources and will to extend them.

[Sports Guy]

If things go as planned, for the next 5 years, you have a boatload of talent around him making collectively very little money. 

Maybe you look to trade him down the line?  Maybe you keep producing cheap talent and can always surround his contract with 10-15 guys making the league minimum. Quite frankly, that should be the plan anyway.

[AnythingO's]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy that we can’t afford him, especially  with the cheap talent the org has. They can afford a 130-150M payroll. So, do you want that much of the payroll with one guy?  That’s a tough question especially since he is 2 players in 1.  

I know you honestly believe that they can afford 130-150M payroll but the Forbes data doesn't support that if they make any profit. Maybe 125-130M payroll as a break even but payroll includes 15-20M of expenses over salaries so that caps salaries at about $110M. Of course greater revenue would be likely with Ohtani but how much does attendance add to revenue, I really don't know how to forecast that. Absent increased revenue, expecting JA to reach into his own pocket is folly.