Adam Frazier 2023

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Eh, the burden of proof isn't on either of our positions because neither of us can really prove anything.  Unless/until Westburg replaces Frazier in the lineup to show what he can or can't do none of us know how he could perform.

I know Frazier is here and I know he's performing.  But that isn't the point or the question.  The point and question is could Westburg match that or exceed it?  And we have NO WAY of KNOWING the answer to that question.  You can claim there is plenty of evidence to suggest it wouldn't be seamless, yet we have seen at times rookies excel quickly and that the learning curve is a small one.  It varies greatly by situation to situation and player by player.  

You can claim the team is better because Frazier is on it, and you aren't wrong.  In comparison to the Odor mistake, Frazier is a breathe of fresh air.  But would the team be even better if Westburg was taking the Frazier at bats?  That we don't know.  It would depend on which of us is right about how Westburg would perform.  The team MAY be better with Frazier off of it and replaced by Westburg.  Simple as that.  

You still fail to address my last point, which is the most significant in favor of Frazier.

Even if Westburg makes the team better, he should be taking ABs away from Henderson, Mountcastle, and maybe Mateo.

[owknows]

21 minutes ago, Pickles said:

So it's silly to believe that Frazier has been our second most valuable and most consistent infielder?

It's silly I think... to base assessments of consistent value on a period of significantly atypical performance that have lasted a few weeks.

I would think that Mateo has taught us this lesson in recent weeks..

You're certainly welcome to be silly if you wish... most fans are from time to time... myself included.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

It's silly I think... to base assessments of consistent value on a period of significantly atypical performance that have lasted a few weeks.

I would think that Mateo has taught us this lesson in recent weeks..

You're certainly welcome to be silly if you wish... most fans are from time to time... myself included.

I'm not here to assess "consistent value."  I'm here assessing performance.

Everything I have said is unassailable.  

Adam Frazier has been our second most valuable and our most consistent infielder this season.

You can entertain all the hypotheticals you want to obfuscate from that fact.

[Baltimorecuse]

Isn't Frazier's OPS above both the team and league average or I'm reading that wrong?

 

[owknows]

17 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm not here to assess "consistent value."  I'm here assessing performance.

Those were your words. Not mine

Quote

Everything I have said is unassailable.  

Everything you said is subjective. So.... no... it isn't.

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Adam Frazier has been our second most valuable and our most consistent infielder this season.

There are those words again. (its like you don't even read your own... much less anyone else's

Quote

You can entertain all the hypotheticals you want to obfuscate from that fact.

I post data. You post opinion. You seem to be laboring under the mistaken belief that your opinion is data.

[forphase1]

47 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You still fail to address my last point, which is the most significant in favor of Frazier.

Even if Westburg makes the team better, he should be taking ABs away from Henderson, Mountcastle, and maybe Mateo.

I'm certainly not ready to move on from Henderson, though that leash is getting shorter.   Westburg isn't a first baseman though I do think he could play there,  and that he would be a better hitter than Mountcastle had shown at times.   And I'm completely fine to give Mateos at bats to anyone else...I wanted him traded in the offseason.  Though clearly he carried us in April he's been terrible now for weeks. 

All that said,  this is the Adam Frazier 2023 thread, thus me focusing on Frazier and who could/should take his spot.   Frazier has outperformed Henderson so far this year and Mateo the past few weeks.   I'll be surprised if both those are still true at seasons end,  though I expect one of them to be as I'm not sure Mateo recovers.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I misspoke..it shouldn’t be 1200 at bats.  It should be about 1000 at bats.

The 800 at bats coming into this season since the second half of 2021, his OPS was like 620ish. So, in the last 1000 at bats, it’s probably 650ish or less.

Sure, just draw the at bat line wherever it best suits your argument at some random point in the middle of 2021.  Meanwhile, he’s at .742 this season and has reached base 19 games in a row.  I’m enjoying that ride.   

Would Westburg be doing better?   Why don’t we be honest about it and admit we don’t know.  He’s hitting very well in AAA.   We’ve had a lot of debuts the last two years and some guys make a smooth transition, some guys don’t.  I would rather have given Westburg the shot, but we didn’t.  Frazier is doing a solid job, he’s hot right now, and I’ll root for him to stay hot.
 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

I don't think he's a bad player at all.

I think he's a journeyman level ML ballplayer.

Maybe just a tick below replacement level.

Sure.  The guy has been worth 13.1 rWAR, 13.1 fWAR in his career.  Last year he was worth 0.7 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR.   This year (before today) he’s been worth 0.9 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR.   He’s never had a negative rWAR or fWAR season.  So clearly that adds up to “slightly below replacement level.”  

Please stop being ridiculous.  If you like Westburg and think he could do better, you can make that argument, but it’s ludicrous to say Frazier is slightly below replacement level.  
 

[owknows]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.  The guy has been worth 13.1 rWAR, 13.1 fWAR in his career.  Last year he was worth 0.7 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR.   This year (before today) he’s been worth 0.9 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR.   He’s never had a negative rWAR or fWAR season.  So clearly that adds up to “slightly below replacement level.”  

Please stop being ridiculous.  If you like Westburg and think he could do better, you can make that argument, but it’s ludicrous to say Frazier is slightly below replacement level.  
 

I don't think it's ridiculous at all.

In fact, I think it's ridiculous to suggest that his current performance is dictated by his past performance.

Frazier's WAR has been declining over each of the last several years.

He had a negative WAR this year through March/April (and a .663 OPS in 92 PA's)

He's been on a pretty good heater in the three weeks of May, raising his WAR to <1 positive number. (with a .844 OPS in 62 PA's)

His 2022 Season OPS was .612 in 602 PA's

So which is the real Adam Frazier?

2022 was a pretty good sample size. Or maybe you have more confidence in 3 weeks in May.

Either way... it's a reasonable enough discussion to be able to have without hyper-emotional outbursts.

 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, owknows said:

I don't think it's ridiculous at all.

In fact, I think it's ridiculous to suggest that his current performance is dictated by his past performance.

Frazier's WAR has been declining over each of the last several years.

He had a negative WAR this year through March/April (and a .663 OPS in 92 PA's)

He's been on a pretty good heater in the three weeks of May, raising his WAR to <1 positive number. (with a .844 OPS in 62 PA's)

His 2022 Season OPS was .612 in 602 PA's

So which is the real Adam Frazier?

2022 was a pretty good sample size. Or maybe you have more confidence in 3 weeks in May.

Either way... it's a reasonable enough discussion to be able to have without hyper-emotional outbursts.

 

If you’re argument wasn’t ridiculous, accusing Frobby of “hyper emotional outbursts” most certainly is.   You just jumped the shark.  

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you’re argument wasn’t ridiculous, accusing Frobby of “hyper emotional outbursts” most certainly is.   You just jumped the shark.  

I've never been much for butt smooching...  but you do you.

[sportsfan8703]

Frazier has a lot of big hits this year. He also has a very good approach at the plate. Knows how to situation hit. More walks than strikeouts. Solid defender. He’s been exactly what we needed. A stabilizing force that is an insurance policy with Urias injury, and we aren’t forced to throw a rookie out there everyday. Let the young guys ease into the lineup. 

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, owknows said:

I've never been much for butt smooching...  but you do you.

Haha.  You’re delusional or paranoid if you found anything in his post to be a hyper emotional outburst.  I just call them how I see them.   Don’t be a weenie.

[Belkster]

4 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I'm certainly not ready to move on from Henderson, though that leash is getting shorter.   Westburg isn't a first baseman though I do think he could play there,  and that he would be a better hitter than Mountcastle had shown at times.   And I'm completely fine to give Mateos at bats to anyone else...I wanted him traded in the offseason.  Though clearly he carried us in April he's been terrible now for weeks. 

All that said,  this is the Adam Frazier 2023 thread, thus me focusing on Frazier and who could/should take his spot.   Frazier has outperformed Henderson so far this year and Mateo the past few weeks.   I'll be surprised if both those are still true at seasons end,  though I expect one of them to be as I'm not sure Mateo recovers.

Even if Mateo recovers, he will have to try harder to beat Frezier. Frezier looks strong at the moment. And he clearly wants a piece of the glory pie

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, owknows said:

I don't think it's ridiculous at all.

In fact, I think it's ridiculous to suggest that his current performance is dictated by his past performance.

Frazier's WAR has been declining over each of the last several years.

He had a negative WAR this year through March/April (and a .663 OPS in 92 PA's)

He's been on a pretty good heater in the three weeks of May, raising his WAR to <1 positive number. (with a .844 OPS in 62 PA's)

His 2022 Season OPS was .612 in 602 PA's

So which is the real Adam Frazier?

2022 was a pretty good sample size. Or maybe you have more confidence in 3 weeks in May.

Either way... it's a reasonable enough discussion to be able to have without hyper-emotional outbursts.

 

1.  It’s not true that Frazier had a negative WAR through March/April.   You may have seen that I am tracking WAR in 18-game segments.   Frazier had 0.6 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR in the first 18 game segment.  Per information earlier in this thread, that had dipped to 0.4 rWAR, 0.0 by April 29, before he hit his 3rd homer on April 30.  He was worth 0.8 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR at the end of the second 18-game segment.   Before last night (10 games into the third segment), he was at 0.9 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR.   So by rWAR, he’s been positive pretty much from day one.   By fWAR, he started positive, dropped to around zero but never got below it towards the end of the month, and is now sturdily positive.   

2.  Yes, he did have a career low .612 OPS last year.  And yet, as I stated before, he was still worth 0.7 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR.   That’s not slightly below replacement. 

3.  So, I am not relying on Frazier’s current .742 OPS to state that it’s incorrect to say he’s a slightly below replacement player.   I’ll come right out and say it: I don’t expect Frazier will end the year at .742 OPS, though it’s possible.  He’ll probably end up lower.  But that won’t make him a slightly less than replacement level player.   

4.  It’s worth noting that, going into last night, Frazier’s wOBA was 6 points lower than his xwOBA.   So while he may be on a hot streak, there’s no evidence that l his current numbers are based on luck. In his career-worst offensive year last year, his wOBA was 23 points below his xwOBA, so pretty unlucky.  

5.  So, there is nothing hyper-emotional about my view on this subject.  I speak with Spock-like detachment when I say there’s no evidence supporting a statement that Frazier is a slightly less than replacement level player.  Not in his career, not last year, and not this year.