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USA Today Panel picks Orioles last in AL East


Tony-OH

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Take this for what it's worth, especially the source (USA Today hasn't been worth anything since the 90s.), but the Orioles aggregate record comes out to 78-84 and last in the stacked AL East. If this happens, how would you feel about Elias and his crew after the offseason he had?

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I guess it would depend on why it happened. If they finish six games below .500 because Gibson and Irvin get lit up 2 out of every 5 days and the bullpen regresses, then the front office will look pretty bad. If it's because of injuries to the starting lineup and GRod and Hall being unable to compete at the big league level, then maybe it won't be their fault.

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I wouldn't love it, but depending on how certain individual players perform, it probably wouldn't change my expectations for the franchise going forward.

I wouldn't care about it's relationship to the offseason, as I never expected big acquisitions, now or in the future.  If anything, you could argue it would support Elias' approach this offseason, as the team wasn't as close/good as some projected.

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I think it would be disappointing to finish under .500 this season let alone win less than 80 games.  However there are a lot of variable in a 162 game season that you cannot blame just some offseason moves on.  If the team gets hit with the injury bug and we lose a few starting pitchers then I wont blame that on Elias and his off season.  Now if the team stays healthy, Frazier is on the bench 75% of the year and we lose 84 games I might be a little more upset about this past offseason.

I am going to wait until the deadline to get a better idea of how I feel about the way Elias is building this club up.  I think with the depth of our minor league system, if we can stay competitive Elias should be able to fill in any missing pieces via trades.

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1 minute ago, Moshagge3 said:

I guess it would depend on why it happened. If they finish six games below .500 because Gibson and Irvin get lit up 2 out of every 5 days and the bullpen regresses, then the front office will look pretty bad. If it's because of injuries to the starting lineup and GRod and Hall being unable to compete at the big league level, then maybe it won't be their fault.

How would they not be at fault, at least to some degree, if their top 2 pitching prospects can't compete at the big league level?  We going to blame Dan?

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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Honestly if the team ends up at 78-84 you probably won't be able to point at the offseason as being the problem.  Would take at least 88 wins in this scenario to make the playoffs.  I don't think 10 additional wins were out there at anything close to a reasonable price.

The Orioles only needed to improve 4 wins from last season squad to have a playoff chance in this scenario. Basically they are saying that even with the addition of Gunnar and Adley all year, Elias's offseason regressed the team six wins. 

Now me personally, I think this team goes into this year as a .500ish team give or take 2-4 wins, so the 78-84 is not unreasonable.

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I would separate my feelings about Elias & crew overall from my feelings about last offseason.  I feel that Elias has done a very good job overall and has built an organization that should be competitive for the next decade or so regardless of how this season turns out.  My opinion on that probably won’t change, barring something drastic.  But it certainly would cement my opinion that the O’s had a “D” offseason.   

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3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles only needed to improve 4 wins from last season squad to have a playoff chance in this scenario. Basically they are saying that even with the addition of Gunnar and Adley all year, Elias's offseason regressed the team six wins. 

Now me personally, I think this team goes into this year as a .500ish team give or take 2-4 wins, so the 78-84 is not unreasonable.

If you are of the mind that last season's team overachieved than you could improve the team and they could still finish with a worse record.

The 2013 team had a superior run differential than the 2012 team and yet won fewer games.

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