USA Today Panel picks Orioles last in AL East

[Ohfan67]

41 minutes ago, deward said:

Last year was his last one for me. I know COVID threw a wrench in the works, but five years should be enough time to get a winning team on the field. I don't give him as much credit for last year as some do, as he clearly didn't intend for that team to compete. Building up the best farm system in baseball is great, and I'm happy about it, but the sole metric I'll be judging him on from here on out is the W-L record. 

He put a winning team on the field last year, so you can go ahead and check that off your list. 

[Ohfan67]

I don't really care how the other teams in the AL East perform and I don't think it really matters whether the Orioles come in third or fourth. I think last year's Orioles team over performed. I think this year's team is more talented and has more depth at the ML and minor league level. I expect this year's team to win about as many games as last year's team, plus or minus a few wins (but hope it is on the plus side). I will see this year's team as a success as long as the young players make progress (it will be a mixed bag, but hopefully more positives than negatives), prospects are promoted and given playing time when deserving (really deserving, screw manipulating service time, that's a gamble that the house usually wins, and screw giving playing time to washed up veterans), and the team plays with competence and heart. The only thing the Orioles can do about the other teams in the AL East is to beat the crap out of them...and I'll be extra satisfied if that happens. 

[yark14]

Didn't even know USA Today still existed. 

F them.

[Jim'sKid26]

57 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think any of us was talking ownership. I was talking about my own personal thoughts. If he punts another offseason next year or blocks more prospects with overpaid veterans I will personally not be happy with him and start to wonder whether he can handle the major league building portion of GM. 

The only thing we know about Elias is he's a good drafting and development GM. Everything else is still up for grading.

I think this is a very good point. This is his first GM gig and he is handicapped by a remarkably dysfunction ownership group. He's done some really good things for this organization but getting this team to be a contender may take more than he brings to the table.

[Moshagge3]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

And like the 2012 team, the 2022 team outperformed its Pythagorean record by a significant margin.  Just a bit of bullpen regression, which is likely, could knock the team down several games.  

This wasn't the case until Lyles pitched with food poisoning against the Red Sox in September and the O's lost like 19-4. Until then their Pythag was right in line. 

[LookinUp]

If the O's win 78, they come in 4th. I'd take the under on the Red Sox. In fact, I'm going to check on their o/u now.

Edit: Lol. Their over/under on Fan Duel is set at 78.5. Baltimore's is 76.5.

Edited March 29 by LookinUp

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

This wasn't the case until Lyles pitched with food poisoning against the Red Sox in September and the O's lost like 19-4. Until then their Pythag was right in line. 

If you were to decide to arbitrarily remove 15 runs the O's would still have a +1 run differential for the season.  That isn't in line with a 83-79 record.

 

Going back and taking an actual look at the games in September the O's lost two big ones to the Red Sox one 17-4,  one 13-9.  Either one of those games, if removed, would still leave the O's with a negative run differential for the season.

Edited March 29 by Can_of_corn
added data

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

This wasn't the case until Lyles pitched with food poisoning against the Red Sox in September and the O's lost like 19-4. Until then their Pythag was right in line. 

I had the misfortune of attending that game.  

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

And like the 2012 team, the 2022 team outperformed its Pythagorean record by a significant margin.  Just a bit of bullpen regression, which is likely, could knock the team down several games.  

I expect us to slide several games (3-4) from last year just like HOU after they broke .500. BP, several will regress but we won't collapse, too many spare bullets to use. SP, the floor is higher, fewer Zimm, Watkins, et. al. innings balances out the BP. Offensively, Mounty, Adley, and Hays improve, but Hays is limited in ABs due to injuries. Gunnar, Mullins, and Santander hold serve but Santander looses time to injuries. So your hopes to improve are left with Mateo, Frazier, Urias, Stowers, and Vavra in some combination with more team IL time this year. I expect Stowers and Vavra to be underused due to Frazier's veteranosity, Urias to not repeat his defensive breakthrough, leaving Mateo as the wild card. If he can recapture his plate discipline from last summer's heater he can make up the difference and we could improve on last year. Place your bets.

[maybenxtyr]

I think it's going to be a race all season between Boston and Baltimore for 4th and 5th place. 

 

Elias will continue to be above criticism because he has really turned the team around, and more importantly to the people that matter he's making them money.

 

 

[Moshagge3]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you were to decide to arbitrarily remove 15 runs the O's would still have a +1 run differential for the season.  That isn't in line with a 83-79 record.

 

Going back and taking an actual look at the games in September the O's lost two big ones to the Red Sox one 17-4,  one 13-9.  Either one of those games, if removed, would still leave the O's with a negative run differential for the season.

An 83-79 record with a +1 run differential is pretty darn in line, I would say. 

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Fair point, but I still like to think of last year's team as a 84-win team that is bringing back a large majority of the same players who are young and in theory, should improve with experience. Had he added an impact starter and potentially a MOO, I would be pretty stoked about this season. 

I'm sorry Tony, but I'm convinced ME simply doesn't have the budget to do that, even if he wanted to. Frazier's $8M doesn't get you there even if ME really wanted to splurge, which I don't believe. I think he believes he can build this thing through drafting mainly with judicious FA supplementation. JA is still trying to show the world he is a successful, underappreciated, and underpaid executive. His metric of choice IMHO. is Operating Income (profit). He won't spend like PA did.

[deward]

29 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

He put a winning team on the field last year, so you can go ahead and check that off your list. 

One year does not a rebuild make. And, like I said, last year was basically an accident; Elias did not go into 2022 with any intention of having a winning team. Let's wait and see how it looks when he's making a good faith effort to make the playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moshagge3 said:

An 83-79 record with a +1 run differential is pretty darn in line, I would say. 

You'd be incorrect.  If you give up as many runs as you score you should lose as many games as you win.  Also the run differential wasn't +1 even if you remove the game in question.

[AnythingO's]

As long as we are competitive all season and finish ahead of Boston, I'll be good just not happy. I'm looking for a 1982 season where we stumble around 1st half and then sync. I want whoever is in 3rd looking over their shoulder most of the 2nd half, trying to hold on,  as we relentlessly close the gap.