Coby Mayo 2023

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, baltfan said:

If you really think that what the Orioles are doing is equivalent to what they are doing in travel ball, you really are giving the Orioles short shrift. And what is your basis for saying that the major league strike zone is so much larger than the minor league strike zone?

I thibk there’s truth to the latter, at least with respect to AAA, which is using the automatic strike zone.  The vast majority of incorrect calls made by major league umpires favor the pitchers.  And the switch to the automated system is a big reason why the average OPS in the International Lesgue is up from .750 to .799 this year.  

[baltfan]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I thibk there’s truth to the latter, at least with respect to AAA, which is using the automatic strike zone.  The vast majority of incorrect calls made by major league umpires favor the pitchers.  And the switch to the automated system is a big reason why the average OPS in the International Lesgue is up from .750 to .799 this year.  

That’s still going to be pretty negligible for any one individual hitter.  Umps typically are missing just a few balls being called strikes per team per game.  It also is consistent with what I am saying regarding them having an initial adjustment due to the approach being taught in the minors.  They are graded and told not to swing at pitches they can’t do damage too even if it is strike three.  That obviously is to ingrain in them command of the zone, even at the expense of striking out.   The effect is going to be more dramatic with better pitchers who have better command.  Logically players will have to adjust. 
 

From a Baltimore Sun article:

“Among those changes are the swing-decision scores that players receive each night based on whether they swung at or took pitches they can do damage on. It’s a tough mindset to instill in a player, especially with the traditional notion of protecting the zone with two strikes to prevent a strikeout. Hitters are regularly told that doesn’t matter anymore.”

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-minor-league-hitting-program-20210623-n5t5k234qvhu3jv36yfdhnuh6u-story.html

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

That’s still going to be pretty negligible for any one individual hitter.  Umps typically are missing just a few balls being called strikes per team per game.  It also is consistent with what I am saying regarding them having an initial adjustment due to the approach being taught in the minors.  They are graded and told not to swing at pitches they can’t do damage too even if it is strike three.  That obviously is to ingrain in them command of the zone, even at the expense of striking out.   The effect is going to be more dramatic with better pitchers who have better command.  Logically players will have to adjust. 
 

From a Baltimore Sun article:

“Among those changes are the swing-decision scores that players receive each night based on whether they swung at or took pitches they can do damage on. It’s a tough mindset to instill in a player, especially with the traditional notion of protecting the zone with two strikes to prevent a strikeout. Hitters are regularly told that doesn’t matter anymore.”

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-minor-league-hitting-program-20210623-n5t5k234qvhu3jv36yfdhnuh6u-story.html

That might change with an automated strike zone.  The idea now is that the third strike might not be called a strike.  If the player knows with certainty that it will be than protecting with two strikes should make a comeback, at least without runners that can be doubled off.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I thibk there’s truth to the latter, at least with respect to AAA, which is using the automatic strike zone.  The vast majority of incorrect calls made by major league umpires favor the pitchers.  And the switch to the automated system is a big reason why the average OPS in the International Lesgue is up from .750 to .799 this year.  

Wow, I didn't realize how much the automated strike zone has helped the hitters. That's a huge jump and explains partially why so many hitters are having so much success in AAA this year. You have to wonder if major league baseball will allow that to come up with such a spike in offense. 

I've watched the ball-strike challenge during AAA games and they are pretty quick for the most part. I saw one game where they must've challenged (both hitter and catcher) like 20 pitches in a game and the call was overturned in about 16 of 20. 

That may have been the extreme game but it does take some getting used to. I do think the automated strike zone will help the Orioles more than hurt. With the young players coming up having that patient approach, we've seen way too many bad calls go against Adley, Gunnar and several others this season.

Yes, I understand "framing" is a thing, but should it be? I mean honestly, that's like saying your catcher cheats better than other catchers.  

 

 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wow, I didn't realize how much the automated strike zone has helped the hitters. That's a huge jump and explains partially why so many hitters are having so much success in AAA this year. You have to wonder if major league baseball will allow that to come up with such a spike in offense. 

I've watched the ball-strike challenge during AAA games and they are pretty quick for the most part. I saw one game where they must've challenged (both hitter and catcher) like 20 pitches in a game and the call was overturned in about 16 of 20. 

That may have been the extreme game but it does take some getting used to. I do think the automated strike zone will help the Orioles more than hurt. With the young players coming up having that patient approach, we've seen way too many bad calls go against Adley, Gunnar and several others this season.

Yes, I understand "framing" is a thing, but should it be? I mean honestly, that's like saying your catcher cheats better than other catchers.  

 

 

They’re also playing around in AAA with what the ABS system judges as the top of the strike zone, and more or less ignoring the clear wording of the rule book.  

[Jim'sKid26]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Yes, I understand "framing" is a thing, but should it be? I mean honestly, that's like saying your catcher cheats better than other catchers.  

 

 

I'm going to guess and say you never pitched....

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I'm going to guess and say you never pitched....

I was mainly a catcher who used to steal calls all the time by being a good framer before that was a measured thing. It was part of the game, but so were missed calls on the bases, but no one complains about the right call being made now, do they?

[TheWall]

15 hours ago, baltfan said:

Steer and McLain.  Both were barely in the top 100 of MLBPipeline.  Both have been better than expected.  Cowser was also a top 100 prospect and you neglect to discuss Cowser who clearly struggled in part due to his approach and figuring out how to make it work at the ML level.  Again thoug, I am saying this explains why they initially struggle.  I am not saying that they will always struggle or that they shouldn’t be developed this way. I agree with the way that the Orioles teach and am saying it means that we need to be more patient because it can work better in the minors versus the majors, so there will need to be adjustments.  

Steer didn't just come up. He struggled when he came up last year and then is better this year. Cowser could do the same thing next year. Steer is also 25 right now and will be 26 before Cowser turns 24. 

McClain has been awesome, but you're also working with a really small sample size. Elly was rated way higher than McClain, but has performed much worse so far in the majors. That sort of thing happens. 

You're taking small sample sizes and trying to make some kind of grand proclamation that doesn't hold any weight. Sure, some of our prospects have struggled out of the gate, but that is bound to happen when you have 6 or 7 come up in a 2 year span. Westburg was on fire out of the gate - do you think he was coached differently than Cowser / Adley? Gunnar was really solid when he came up last year, but then struggled to drive the ball at the start of this year. Was there a difference in how they coached him in the offseason? You're way too focused on small sample sizes. 

There is no evidence that Orioles prospects struggle more out of the gate than players from other teams. 

[baltfan]

32 minutes ago, TheWall said:

Steer didn't just come up. He struggled when he came up last year and then is better this year. Cowser could do the same thing next year. Steer is also 25 right now and will be 26 before Cowser turns 24. 

McClain has been awesome, but you're also working with a really small sample size. Elly was rated way higher than McClain, but has performed much worse so far in the majors. That sort of thing happens. 

You're taking small sample sizes and trying to make some kind of grand proclamation that doesn't hold any weight. Sure, some of our prospects have struggled out of the gate, but that is bound to happen when you have 6 or 7 come up in a 2 year span. Westburg was on fire out of the gate - do you think he was coached differently than Cowser / Adley? Gunnar was really solid when he came up last year, but then struggled to drive the ball at the start of this year. Was there a difference in how they coached him in the offseason? You're way too focused on small sample sizes. 

There is no evidence that Orioles prospects struggle more out of the gate than players from other teams. 

If you couldn’t see from watching Cowser and Gunnar earlier this year that their issues were with being too selective, I don’t know what to tell you.  I would agree that Ortiz’s sample size was too small and erratic to glean anything from.  As for Westburg, he spent more time in AAA than any of them.  He also walked 29 times in 301 PA at Norfolk. Cowser, on the other hand, is far more selective having walked  56 times in 315 PA.   This would seem to jibe with what I was saying about what the Orioles preach and how for some people it could cause them to struggle at first.  You, of course, it seems just want to chalk everything up to lots of guys struggle without attempting to delve deeper.  

[higgybaby]

12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

If you couldn’t see from watching Cowser and Gunnar earlier this year that their issues were with being too selective, I don’t know what to tell you.  I would agree that Ortiz’s sample size was too small and erratic to glean anything from.  As for Westburg, he spent more time in AAA than any of them.  He also walked 29 times in 301 PA at Norfolk. Cowser, on the other hand, is far more selective having walked  56 times in 315 PA.   This would seem to jibe with what I was saying about what the Orioles preach and how for some people it could cause them to struggle at first.  You, of course, it seems just want to chalk everything up to lots of guys struggle without attempting to delve deeper.  

You know what’s great about being so good at being selective vs coming through the system learning to be a more aggressive free swinger?

It is easier to adapt and become more patiently aggressive and identifying pitches that you can drive. 

It may take a couple hundred at bats or so, but the transition is easier  

 

[baltfan]

10 minutes ago, higgybaby said:

You know what’s great about being so good at being selective vs coming through the system learning to be a more aggressive free swinger?

It is easier to adapt and become more patiently aggressive and identifying pitches that you can drive. 

It may take a couple hundred at bats or so, but the transition is easier  

 

As I said a ton of times, I prefer the more selective approach and think it makes for better hitters.  They just might struggle a bit more out of the box because of it.  It was a general observation based on what was obvious for Gunnar and Cowser, and Adley, though to a lesser degree.  

[TheWall]

5 hours ago, baltfan said:

As I said a ton of times, I prefer the more selective approach and think it makes for better hitters.  They just might struggle a bit more out of the box because of it.  It was a general observation based on what was obvious for Gunnar and Cowser, and Adley, though to a lesser degree.  

You have 0 evidence that more selective hitters struggle more starting out. You argued that Baltimore's young players underachieve starting out and cited the Reds as an example of a team who's young players exceed expectations. You have yet to provide any evidence that this is actually true. (Hint: that evidence doesn't exist). 

[baltfan]

37 minutes ago, TheWall said:

You have 0 evidence that more selective hitters struggle more starting out. You argued that Baltimore's young players underachieve starting out and cited the Reds as an example of a team who's young players exceed expectations. You have yet to provide any evidence that this is actually true. (Hint: that evidence doesn't exist). 

Dude why so angry?  Gunnar clearly was too selective and it was hurting him in the beginning of the year for the first two months.  Don’t believe me, read what Tony says.     
 

“After Gunnar's quick start, over his next 209 PAs he struggled badly slashing just .180/.325/.326/.651 with 36 walks and 67 Ks, striking out nearly once every 3 PAs. In Gunnar's case, he definitely was getting himself in way too many two strike counts and pitchers were not making too many two strike pitch mistakes.

Getting more aggressive, he slashed .273/.327/.518/.845 over his next 350 PAs with 24 BBs and 83 Ks. It's pretty obvious Gunnar's walked rate has gone way down, but he's offset that with much more power (.326 vs .518 SLG). While Gunnar's OBP is about the same, he's getting more hits vs walks and he's become much more productive.” 

 

[TheWall]

On 9/4/2023 at 10:43 PM, baltfan said:

Dude why so angry?  Gunnar clearly was too selective and it was hurting him in the beginning of the year for the first two months.  Don’t believe me, read what Tony says.     
 

 

“After Gunnar's quick start, over his next 209 PAs he struggled badly slashing just .180/.325/.326/.651 with 36 walks and 67 Ks, striking out nearly once every 3 PAs. In Gunnar's case, he definitely was getting himself in way too many two strike counts and pitchers were not making too many two strike pitch mistakes.

Getting more aggressive, he slashed .273/.327/.518/.845 over his next 350 PAs with 24 BBs and 83 Ks. It's pretty obvious Gunnar's walked rate has gone way down, but he's offset that with much more power (.326 vs .518 SLG). While Gunnar's OBP is about the same, he's getting more hits vs walks and he's become much more productive.” 

 

The argument is not whether Gunnar was too selective at the plate at the start of this year. The argument he made was that the Orioles have more underachieving prospects than any other team. We don't. 

Is the point here that rookies / young players sometimes have things to work on? Why is that news? 

[baltfan]

9 minutes ago, TheWall said:

The argument is not whether Gunnar was too selective at the plate at the start of this year. The argument he made was that the Orioles have more underachieving prospects than any other team. We don't. 

Is the point here that rookies / young players sometimes have things to work on? Why is that news? 

Funny that you should see it that way since Tony saw that the argument was what I am saying and created a whole thread based upon evaluating the argument.  From the first paragraph of his thread:
 

“In the Coby Mayo thread in the minor league forum there's a conversation about how Orioles minor leaguers have made adjustments to major league pitching. The question mostly delved around how the Orioles minor league hitters are developed with the theory of only swinging at pitches where they can do damage. “

Now you can just write the various struggles off as lots of guys struggle when they first come up, but I prefer to see if there is some further explanation especially if there is a positive aspect to it vs one that is more negative such as can’t hit the curve ball.