Trade Guthrie...who's with me?

[Osfan13]

You'll have to point me to the study that shows Stanford grads age better than others.

Seriously, Stanford grad and bike-rider? What kind of bearing does that have on his ability to age?

I'm not arguing that all Stanford grads age better or worse (although I'd be willing to bet that plenty of them live more comfortably) than another man. I don't believe that a study of that exists.

What I believe is that a constantly moving mind mixed with a healthy body will benefit Jeremy Guthrie's "ability to age" or more precisely, his health while aging. He has a few biological factors working for him as well, being part Japanese chief among them.

I just finished a Developmental Psychology class and am getting to put it to use immediately!

[Lucky Jim]

No I just know what this team will do and they never fail to meet my expectations. I put blinders on about Tex, but once again the Orioles stayed true to form. If you would see, my predictions about this team have pretty much come true. Last season Millar stunk it up in the second half and Payton took away playing time from Luke Scott. And we've pretty much said goodbye to Oscar Salazar for no reason really.

There are a few exceptions such as the Wieters pick or the Markakis extension where they have impressed. But for the most part it's the same old same old with this team. They just can't seem to get the little things right...

How can someone who's wrong so often think he "knows what this team will do"? Are you kidding me?

An example: Payton added value in LF last year, defensively, with a UZR/150 of 26.3 (compared to Scott's UZR/150 of 7.1). He was used exactly right - they paid too much, but they derived SOME value out of him.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not arguing that all Stanford grads age better or worse (although I'd be willing to bet that plenty of them live more comfortably) than another man. I don't believe that a study of that exists.

What I believe is that a constantly moving mind mixed with a healthy body will benefit Jeremy Guthrie's "ability to age" or more precisely, his health while aging. He has a few biological factors working for him as well, being part Japanese chief among them.

I just finished a Developmental Psychology class and am getting to put it to use immediately!

The only parts of Guthrie's body that really matter are his shoulder and his elbow. And going to Stanford (or having an agile, active mind) can't do anything about that.

[Sports Guy]

The only parts of Guthrie's body that really matter are his shoulder and his elbow. And going to Stanford (or having an agile, active mind) can't do anything about that.

Especially since Guthrie has a violent, maximum effort delivery.

[DrungoHazewood]

A lot of posters are more optimistic about when Matusz and Arrieta will arrive in the majors then I am and how long it will take them to be playoff ready. Heck, some had Arrieta is the starting rotation for the 2009 opener. Instead he is not even being invited to camp. I think it continues to be clear that MacPhail is going to take his time with these guys and be sure not to rush them. The only way we will know well be to keep waiting and watching.

If any of Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta aren't in the major league rotation by 2011 they probably never will be. Unless maybe they've been on Dr. Andrew's operating table sometime between now and then.

If they're in the rotation, Mackus is right, they're likely going to be near peak from the day they enter the league. Pitchers careers aren't usually bell curves - they're much more flat, with abrupt step changes due mostly to health.

[bigelow]

i say yes to trading guthrie around the all star break if his value at a high and our big 3 are all doing well. If its just 2-3 no

[Osfan13]

The only parts of Guthrie's body that really matter are his shoulder and his elbow. And going to Stanford (or having an agile, active mind) can't do anything about that.

Your opinion leaves little room for others.

His shoulder and elbow are important, and I'm not going to get into a arguement about the use legs while pitching. I will repeat my opinion that Guthrie will age well, as for his elbow and shoulder... any pitcher is one pitch away from the end of his career. Doesn't mean you should trade them, even if they do get injured (and they all do).

[Frobby]

The idea that we are in trouble without Guthrie is rather humorous.

We are in trouble WITH him as well.

Last year, we traded bedard and Tejada and almost had the same record as the year before(and for most of the season, it looked like we would be better).

So, you will have to excuse if I am not going to jump off a building worrying about the 2009 Orioles if Guthrie is dealt.

Apparently you have more tolerance for pain than I do.

Guthrie at present is the ONLY starter we can count on in 2009. I expect Uehara to be pretty good, but he's an unknown quantity. Everyone else is unestablished.

Maybe you can watch terrible starting pitching 162 games in a year and not wince. For me, I need a day off once every five days. I need to be able to say, "only three more days until Guthrie's turn and this abuse will end."

If you enjoyed September 2007 and September 2008 when Guthrie was out of the rotation, you'll just love 2009 without Guthrie.

[LookinUp]

At this point, any team should be able to see that we're in a rebuilding mode and willing to trade nearly anyone at the right price. If a team wants Guthrie, they need to make an offer.

I believe this is how AM will handle things. Some on this board may not like it (i.e., not aggressive enough), but he won't be actively shopping Guthrie any time soon. At best, quiet floaters that he could be had in the right deal may come from the warehouse.

Don't bet on this guy getting traded. I'd be in favor, but I just don't see it happening.

[Osfan13]

i say yes to trading guthrie around the all star break if his value at a high and our big 3 are all doing well. If its just 2-3 no

The "Big 3" won't be in Baltimore around the All-Star break. Of the three, only Tillman has pitched at AA and it has been mentioned in the Sun, MASNsports, and other publications that Tillman may start the year at AA again. The closest we may see any of them is September (and I doubt we will, MacPhail has been carefull with the service clock of his better prospects in Baltimore).

[Lucky Jim]

Your opinion leaves little room for others.

His shoulder and elbow are important, and I'm not going to get into a arguement about the use legs while pitching. I will repeat my opinion that Guthrie will age well, as for his elbow and shoulder... any pitcher is one pitch away from the end of his career. Doesn't mean you should trade them, even if they do get injured (and they all do).

I'm not saying you should trade him because he's an injury risk. I'm saying we should trade him because his long-term value in trade is likely greater than his long-term value in performance, and definitely (for a non-contender) greater than his short-term value in performance.

My point was really that we shouldn't look at what amounts to noise (he's smart, he's fit) when deciding who is going to age well, because it's not great predictive evidence. Not in a high-trauma activity like pitching, especially.

If you want to say that my original point (that being a bike-riding Stanford grad is at best a very small component and at worst immaterial in determining how he'll age) leaves little room for disagreement, then I'm okay with that: I think I'm right, and that what little I know about biomechanics, pitching, and aging bears me out.

If you want to say that my argument that Guthrie should be shopped starting mid-season leaves little room for argument, I disagree: I'm open to all opinions. Though I'll defend my own strongly.

[bigelow]

The "Big 3" won't be in Baltimore around the All-Star break. Of the three, only Tillman has pitched at AA and it has been mentioned in the Sun, MASNsports, and other publications that Tillman may start the year at AA again. The closest we may see any of them is September (and I doubt we will, MacPhail has been carefull with the service clock of his better prospects in Baltimore).

I was talking about sustaining their success in the the minors. As in a sub 4 ERA with good K rates. Im not saying trade guthrie but i think by the all star break if the offers right We could put in another fill in for god sakes we

have a thousand.

[zff4]

Pitchers careers aren't usually bell curves - they're much more flat, with abrupt step changes due mostly to health.

Yes, but oddly, I remember seeing an article once that illustrated how very good pitchers typically peak later (29-32) than average to poor pitchers who peak very early (25-28).

[Sports Guy]

Apparently you have more tolerance for pain than I do.

Guthrie at present is the ONLY starter we can count on in 2009. I expect Uehara to be pretty good, but he's an unknown quantity. Everyone else is unestablished.

Maybe you can watch terrible starting pitching 162 games in a year and not wince. For me, I need a day off once every five days. I need to be able to say, "only three more days until Guthrie's turn and this abuse will end."

If you enjoyed September 2007 and September 2008 when Guthrie was out of the rotation, you'll just love 2009 without Guthrie.

I will watch anything as long as we are showing a team that is for the long term.

I care way much more about the long term good than about 2009.

[Tx Oriole]

Guthrie, who is now 30, hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season. He's at his peak physically already and his shaky peripherals have to catch up with him at some point.

I think it is the perfect time to move him.

If we could box him up with a Scott, or Huff...I say do it.

Our rotation is going to be in shambles anyway. If we call this season a bust anyway, we are only going to be 10 wins worse than we were anyway.

Attack away.

No attacks from me. I just disagree with you.