Trade Guthrie...who's with me?

[Lucky Jim]

It's as easy as writing a big check. If we're willing to go out and spend what it takes to get Looper, Garland or Wolf, it's easy to do. And if the return for Guthrie was very high, that wouldn't be too bad an idea.

It would have to be worth more than a later return, though, wouldn't it? To make it worth it? Is there any sign that Guthrie's value is going to decline?

Otherwise, WE'RE paying to trade him now. And that's not how it works.

[DrungoHazewood]

You would have to bring in some guys to replace Guthrie but in this market, that should be easily done.

Many people don't seem to have the vision and foresight to look beyond the one move and that is a shame and it also seems to be the problem here with people like Rshack.

How are you a better team? With Guthrie? Or with Garland and 2 very good close to or ML ready IF prospects?

Don't forget that even in a depressed market you're probably looking at a 2/10 deal (at least) for a guy like Garland, and he's going to be considerably worse than Guthrie. So you're downgrading the team (basically trying to get through the year with nobody on the opening day roster who's better than a #4 starter) and paying ~$9M extra.

Sure, you consider it if the haul is huge. But only then.

[FR500]

Amazing. OK, sure. Trade him, but only if we can get another 2 -3 outfielders who probably won't amount to anything. Write off the 2009, 2010,2 011, and 2012 seasons?! You gotta love message boards. "Nick, congrats on your 6 year extention, and oh, by the way, we are planning on competing until 2013. Can you help us to pump up the other 39 for our Plan C? And don't worry about attendance, we still play a lot of games against NY and Boston." Compete THIS YEAR!

[hoosiers]

I would absolutely trade Guts in the right deal. I could care less about a potentially disastrous 2009 season due to a lack of major league capable pitching. As seen in the Bedard deal, it's possible to deal a perceived top talent for youth and still be better overall on the major league squad.

However, (and I just deleted an orange colored paragraph), if one or two of our non-Big 3 pan out into respectable starting pitchers, we could be ready to compete sooner than many here believe. We've been pretty snake-bit in anticipating success from any internally developed pitcher not named Bedard (or rated in the Top 50 overall prospects) that we have a dark shadow covering any optimism that Liz/Penn/Patton/Berken/Bergesen could actually become a decent major league starter. So, I would worry that we might be able to compete sooner than some believe and that we would deal Guts only to have a need for a pitcher of similar caliber within two years.

[Lucky Jim]

I would absolutely trade Guts in the right deal. I could care less about a potentially disastrous 2009 season due to a lack of major league capable pitching. As seen in the Bedard deal, it's possible to deal a perceived top talent for youth and still be better overall on the major league squad.

However, (and I just deleted an orange colored paragraph), if one or two of our non-Big 3 pan out into respectable starting pitchers, we could be ready to compete sooner than many here believe. We've been pretty snake-bit in anticipating success from any internally developed pitcher not named Bedard (or rated in the Top 50 overall prospects) that we have a dark shadow covering any optimism that Liz/Penn/Patton/Berken/Bergesen could actually become a decent major league starter. So, I would worry that we might be able to compete sooner than some believe and that we would deal Guts only to have a need for a pitcher of similar caliber within two years.

I'm worried more about the long-term effects of over-reliance and misuse, rather than a terrible 2009 team. Just to be clear.

[FR500]

To review: the O's have exactly 1 SP, and some people think the O's should trade him too.

Amazing. Only on the internet, where the reality of actual baseball seasons doesn't appear to matter.

Do you guys really want guys like Nick and AJ and Wieters to *hate* being Orioles? Is that what you want?

Thank you! What's next, let's trade Nick????

[Sports Guy]

Don't forget that even in a depressed market you're probably looking at a 2/10 deal (at least) for a guy like Garland, and he's going to be considerably worse than Guthrie. So you're downgrading the team (basically trying to get through the year with nobody on the opening day roster who's better than a #4 starter) and paying ~$9M extra.

Sure, you consider it if the haul is huge. But only then.

The money there is nothing to be concerned with...Our payroll is going to be very low, so I am more concerned with someone to eat innings and to make sure the pitcher(s) we sign are done for a short term deal.

Give me some kind of combination of very good, ML ready or close to ML ready IF and pitching prospects and Garland over just Guthrie.

[RShack]

It's as easy as writing a big check. If we're willing to go out and spend what it takes to get Looper, Garland or Wolf, it's easy to do. And if the return for Guthrie was very high, that wouldn't be too bad an idea.

That same equation applies to whoever might trade for Guthrie.

So, it comes down to whether they'd rather trade good young talent for Guthrie or write a check for somebody else.

It appears that teams are valuing their good young talent more than ever before.

It also appears the decent FA's are cheaper than they used to be.

If these trends are really there, then trading Guthrie would likely to be a "sell-low, buy-high" situation.

Trading good 30-yr-old's for prospects appears to be yesterday's formula, not today's.

Of course, it's the specific details that matter, not just general trends.

But, given the apparent trends, I think it's not looking good for those of us who might have a generic preference for trades.

[tom smith]

What do you think of a Guts, Scott, Sherill to SD for Adrian Gonzales and there 3b [ kouz ] something i'm not sure the spelling of his name plus something else. They already have an in house replacement for the 3b and we would have are 1b and 3b of the future and just wait on our pitching to be ready. Then SD could go ahead with there Peavy deal with the Cubs.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, who is to say that we don't get a pitcher back in the deal that ends up eating a bunch of innings himself?

What if we got back a James McDonald type pitcher?

[Lucky Jim]

That same equation applies to whoever might trade for Guthrie.

So, it comes down to whether they'd rather trade good young talent for Guthrie or write a check for somebody else.

It appears that teams are valuing their good young talent more than ever before.

It also appears the decent FA's are cheaper than they used to be.

If these trends are really there, then trading Guthrie would likely to be a "sell-low, buy-high" situation.

Trading good 30-yr-old's for prospects appears to be yesterday's formula, not today's.

Of course, it's the specific details that matter, not just general trends.

But, given the apparent trends, I think it's not looking good for those of us who might have a generic preference for trades.

You'll need to point out some successful 30 year old starting pitchers who aren't getting signed. Comps for Guthrie.

[Lucky Jim]

BTW, who is to say that we don't get a pitcher back in the deal that ends up eating a bunch of innings himself?

What if we got back a James McDonald type pitcher?

You're pretty unlikely to get a ML-ready inning eater for Guthrie, when Guthrie isn't much more than a ML inning eater. He's good, it would be a silly trade for someone to trade someone who's ready now for Guthrie. Especially if that guy has any upside. And it would mean we don't get much else.

[orioles327]

I agree. A Stanford grad who rides his bike to the park every day should age relatively well. I would also like to point out that a 35 year old Derek Lowe just got a 4 year deal from a relatively well-run club in the Braves. It is entirely possible that at the end of his service time, we may want to extend him.

He also didn't pitch for two years while on a mission to Spain. So his arm might be a little fresher than most 29 year olds.

There is no way I trade Guts this season. Tillman and Arrietta are close to being ready. And Matusz has the ability to be David Price-esque.

So in 2010 Guthrie will be 31, and our 3 young guns will either be up in the bigs or on the cusp of breaking through, not to mention Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton could turn out to be pretty good too.

So in 2010 to 2011 we could have a rotation of:

Guts

Uehara

Tillman

Arrieta

Matusz/Bergesen/Penn/Patton/hernandez

Or if we sign a Looper/Garland type that could even help with the Big 3's progression in the minors.

2010 is the year we're over.500 with an outside shot at the wild card. 2011 we're where we want to be. Where is this 2013 coming from?

How do you expect a rotation with three rookie pitchers to finish above 500 in the AL east?

[Frobby]

That same equation applies to whoever might trade for Guthrie.

So, it comes down to whether they'd rather trade good young talent for Guthrie or write a check for somebody else.

It appears that teams are valuing their good young talent more than ever before.

It also appears the decent FA's are cheaper than they used to be.

If these trends are really there, then trading Guthrie would likely to be a "sell-low, buy-high" situation.

Trading good 30-yr-old's for prospects appears to be yesterday's formula, not today's.

Of course, it's the specific details that matter, not just general trends.

But, given the apparent trends, I think it's not looking good for those of us who might have a generic preference for trades.

Guthrie has more value than most 30-year olds because he's not yet arbitration eligible, and can't be a free agent for four more seasons. He's very cost-effective, which is why he'd be good trade bait for a team that is competitive but fairly strapped for cash.

[Sports Guy]

You're pretty unlikely to get a ML-ready inning eater for Guthrie, when Guthrie isn't much more than a ML inning eater. He's good, it would be a silly trade for someone to trade someone who's ready now for Guthrie. Especially if that guy has any upside. And it would mean we don't get much else.

Guthrie has established himself as a guy who can go deep into games and pitch to a sub 4 ERA...And he is doing it for little money.

A guy like James McDonald is far from a lock in doing that.

Contenders would do that IMO.